CryptoQuant Quicktake

The Buying Power Ratio used in this analysis is defined as the 7-day net stablecoin inflow divided by the 7-day BTC outflow on each exchange. In simple terms, it measures how much “dry powder” is entering an exchange relative to the amount of BTC being distributed. A higher or stable ratio indicates stronger absorption capacity, while persistently negative values reflect capital exhaustion and reactive selling.

Across the dataset, Binance consistently exhibits a structurally stronger buying power profile compared to other major exchanges. While most venues show deeply negative ratios—often below -0.5 and, in several cases, below -1—Binance remains relatively stable, fluctuating in a narrow range around neutral to mildly positive values. This suggests that even as BTC leaves Binance, stablecoin capital continues to rotate in, partially offsetting sell-side pressure.

By contrast, exchanges such as Bybit, OKX, and Bitfinex display prolonged negative buying power regimes, where BTC outflows are accompanied by accelerating stablecoin exits. This pattern implies that selling pressure on those venues is not being met with replenishing capital, increasing the risk of price dislocation. Coinbase Advanced and Kraken show occasional positive spikes, but these are short-lived and inconsistent, pointing to event-driven or region-specific flows rather than sustained demand.

Importantly, this behavior is observed while BTC price remains elevated, indicating that Binance’s role is not aggressive accumulation but liquidity stabilization. The exchange functions as a primary venue where distribution is met with sufficient counterflow, reducing the likelihood of disorderly downside moves.

From a market-structure perspective, sustained price resilience is less about the absence of sellers and more about where selling can be absorbed without draining liquidity. The data suggests that, in the current regime, Binance

Written by Crazzyblockk

Analysis of XRP Ledger data on Binance reveals a clear rebalancing in the derivatives market, with open interest falling to approximately $453 million, its lowest level since the end of 2024. This development reflects a fundamental shift in trader behavior and confirms a significant decrease in leverage usage compared to previous periods.

During the early months of 2025, open interest in XRP futures contracts exceeded $1 billion on several occasions, coinciding with strong price surges. In mid-2025, open interest rose again to similarly elevated levels, reflecting renewed speculative activity and a continued reliance on leveraged positions, which made the market increasingly sensitive to sudden price movements. However, the current landscape is markedly different. Open interest has declined gradually and then sharply, reaching approximately $453 million, indicating a significant exit by short-term speculators.

This decrease in open interest carries dual implications. On the one hand, the decline in risk appetite and weakening momentum in the derivatives market help explain the volatile price behavior in the absence of strong, liquidity-driven breakouts. On the other hand, this contraction represents a healthy structural development, reducing the risk of forced liquidations and mitigating the abnormal pressures associated with excessive leverage.

Periods of low open interest often represent transitional phases, during which the market shifts from a highly speculative environment to a calmer one that relies more heavily on genuine spot market demand

Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin appears to be in the later stage of its post–all-time-high correction. Sentiment remains in Extreme Fear territory, suggesting risk appetite is still fragile. While the sharp sell-off phase has likely passed, rebounds have lacked follow-through, consistent with demand fatigue rather than panic-driven capitulation.

This stands out against a record-breaking 2025 for the broader ETF market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows, yet price has not responded meaningfully. The Coinbase Premium Index remains negative, indicating that U.S.-based spot demand has weakened. The market looks less “heavily sold” and more “underbought,” with insufficient new buyers to absorb existing supply.

Regionally, selling pressure has been more visible during U.S./European sessions, while Asia has shown incremental dip-buying. However, the buying has not been strong enough to signal a clear regime shift. Whale inflows on major exchanges have also slowed, implying large investors are not accumulating aggressively.

On-chain, increased spending from 7–10 year old coins suggests some long-term holders are becoming active—a pattern that has often appeared near distribution phases or ahead of trend transitions, though it does not guarantee immediate selling.

At present, the base case is continued time-based consolidation with a mild bearish bias. However, a sustained rebound in the Coinbase Premium and clearer absorption by long-term capital would warrant revisiting this view.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The current market phase can be defined as a post–all-time-high adjustment. Directionally, bearish pressure remains conditionally dominant, reflecting demand fatigue rather than panic-driven selling.

In 2025, the U.S. ETF market recorded roughly $1.4 trillion in year-to-date net inflows, with equities and fixed income leading capital allocation.

Crypto-related ETFs played a secondary but notable role. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract inflows despite Bitcoin posting negative year-to-date performance, suggesting that some investors prioritized long-term exposure over short-term price action. However, traditional equity ETFs remained the primary drivers of overall ETF flows, leaving crypto ETFs structurally peripheral.

Bitcoin’s weaker performance is best explained by structural factors. The ETF adoption narrative was largely priced in by mid-year, limiting incremental demand. Persistently high interest rates constrained risk appetite, while positions accumulated at elevated price levels continued to unwind as the market shifted from expansion to adjustment.

On-chain data supports this view through the Coinbase Premium Index. During the mid-year rally, the premium remained mostly positive, indicating steady U.S.-based demand. More recently, it has turned persistently negative, signaling a weakening of U.S. spot demand rather than aggressive distribution.

This shift does not imply capitulation. Instead, incremental spot demand has been insufficient to absorb existing supply. As the premium deteriorated, price followed lower, suggesting demand exhaustion—not forced liquidation—as the dominant force.

An alternative scenario would require a sustained recovery in the Coinbase Premium Index, signaling renewed U.S. demand and a transition toward re-accumulation.

At present, demand normalization remains the base case, though consistent premium recovery would warrant a reassessment.

（Analysis Report

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The current market phase can be defined as a post–all-time-high adjustment. Directionally, bearish pressure remains conditionally dominant, reflecting demand fatigue rather than panic-driven selling.

In 2025, the U.S. ETF market recorded roughly $1.4 trillion in year-to-date net inflows, with equities and fixed income leading capital allocation.

Crypto-related ETFs played a secondary but notable role. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract inflows despite Bitcoin posting negative year-to-date performance, suggesting that some investors prioritized long-term exposure over short-term price action. However, traditional equity ETFs remained the primary drivers of overall ETF flows, leaving crypto ETFs structurally peripheral.

Bitcoin’s weaker performance is best explained by structural factors. The ETF adoption narrative was largely priced in by mid-year, limiting incremental demand. Persistently high interest rates constrained risk appetite, while positions accumulated at elevated price levels continued to unwind as the market shifted from expansion to adjustment.

On-chain data supports this view through the Coinbase Premium Index. During the mid-year rally, the premium remained mostly positive, indicating steady U.S.-based demand. More recently, it has turned persistently negative, signaling a weakening of U.S. spot demand rather than aggressive distribution.

This shift does not imply capitulation. Instead, incremental spot demand has been insufficient to absorb existing supply. As the premium deteriorated, price followed lower, suggesting demand exhaustion—not forced liquidation—as the dominant force.

An alternative scenario would require a sustained recovery in the Coinbase Premium Index, signaling renewed U.S. demand and a transition toward re-accumulation.

At present, demand normalization remains the base case, though consistent premium recovery would warrant a reassessment.

（Analysis Report No.156）

The XWIN Group operates the DeFi platform “xwin.finance”.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

BTC continues to show signs of short-term recovery, even as on-chain and spot flow metrics remain somewhat mixed. While retail trading frequency has clearly picked up, this should not be interpreted as an immediate exhaustion signal. Historically, during broader bullish regimes, rising retail participation often accompanies recovery phases rather than marking definitive tops, especially when price is stabilizing after a corrective move.

At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index has flipped negative, but the magnitude remains relatively shallow. This type of controlled negative premium has frequently appeared during consolidation or post-drawdown phases, where U.S. spot demand pauses temporarily instead of fully exiting the market. In several past instances, price managed to form local lows and rebound while the premium stayed slightly negative before later reverting as spot demand recovered.

From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin is transitioning away from impulsive downside moves and into a more balanced range, suggesting selling pressure is losing dominance. As long as price continues to defend recent demand zones and avoids sharp expansions in negative premium, the probability favors further recovery rather than immediate continuation to the downside.

Overall, the current setup leans constructive: retail activity reflects renewed engagement, downside momentum is fading, and spot demand, while not yet aggressive, is stabilizing rather than collapsing. This combination supports a recovery-first scenario, with stronger upside confirmation likely to follow once spot premiums normalize and accumulation becomes clearer.

Written by CryptoZeno

The Bitcoin market remains under pressure from negative institutional flows and the capitulation of short‑term holders. In this scenario, the indicator Bitcoin: Realized Cap – UTXO Age Bands (%) in the 12~18m cohort, according to data from CryptoQuant, marks the beginning of a new phase of accumulation, in which, at the end of downturn cycles, this group usually holds the largest share of the total Bitcoin in circulation.

CURRENT AND HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION DATA

◾ Current (2025) → UTXO 12~18m at 9.67% → start of accumulation, comparable to previous cycles, indicating that further BTC declines may still be expected.

◾ Historical (bottoms of previous cycles with the percentage of wallet accumulation):

• 2015 (April 25) → 44.78%

• 2019 (March 31) → 43.25%

• 2022 (June 19) → 30.36%

CONCLUSION

The UTXO 12~18m indicator shows that accumulation by this investor group is only just beginning, at levels far below those of previous cycles. This reinforces the outlook for the continuation of BTC’s decline, even if supported by structural signals coming from miners and major players.

Written by GugaOnChain

The Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has dropped significantly to 11.1, marking its lowest level since January 2024. This is a drastic decline from the local peak of 19.4 recorded just months ago in July 2025.

Market Analysis:

The SSR metric compares Bitcoin’s market cap against the total supply of stablecoins. A falling ratio indicates that the supply of stablecoins (buying power) is increasing relative to Bitcoin’s valuation.

Surge in “Dry Powder”: The collapse from 19.4 to 11.1 suggests that despite recent price action, the market’s purchasing power is at its strongest point in nearly two years. The market is now “loaded” with stablecoins capable of purchasing BTC.

Bullish Divergence: Historically, low SSR values act as a reliable signal for accumulation zones. When the ratio is this low, it implies there is enough stablecoin liquidity on the sidelines to support the current price and potentially drive a significant rally.

Conclusion:

With the SSR resetting to early 2024 levels, the market structure appears much healthier than it was in July. This abundance of dry powder suggests that any further downside could be rapidly absorbed, setting the stage for a potential impulsive move upward as this capital deploys into Bitcoin.

Written by CryptoOnchain

On-chain metrics reveal a dramatic exodus of stablecoin liquidity from Binance. The Exchange Reserve for Tether on the TRON network (USDT-TRC20) has plummeted to a new yearly low of $670.3 million.

The context makes this drop alarming: In late June 2025, these reserves stood at a peak of over $10 Billion. This represents a massive ~93% outflow of capital in less than six months.

Implications for the Market:

Vanishing “Dry Powder”: Stablecoin reserves on exchanges act as immediate buying power. The disappearance of over $9 billion in USDT implies a significant reduction in the “fuel” available to pump asset prices or absorb selling pressure.

Market Depth Risks: With liquidity thinning out so aggressively, the “buy walls” that previously existed are gone. This makes the exchange more susceptible to volatility, as there is less capital on the sidelines to defend key price levels.

Conclusion:

This trend signals a massive shift in capital allocation—whether it’s whales moving to self-custody, rotating to other networks, or exiting to fiat. Until we see a significant inflow of stablecoins, the immediate buy-side pressure on Binance remains critically weak.

Written by CryptoOnchain

BTC 90-day Spot Taker CVD is currently reflecting sustained taker sell dominance as price trades near cycle highs. This indicates that market participants are increasingly willing to sell aggressively into strength, a behavior typically associated with profit-taking and distribution during high-liquidity environments rather than panic-driven exits.

Notably, the CVD has not entered a sharp negative acceleration. Instead, its structure resembles historical mid-cycle phases where selling pressure temporarily absorbs demand and slows momentum without invalidating the broader uptrend. This suggests local cooling rather than a structural breakdown in spot market demand.

From a macro perspective, the Silver/Gold ratio continues to test a long-term descending resistance, a level that has historically acted as a leading indicator for risk-on transitions. When capital rotates away from defensive assets like precious metals, Bitcoin and other high-beta assets have consistently been among the primary beneficiaries.

Taken together, spot-level distribution and supportive macro signals point toward a consolidation or re-accumulation phase rather than a cycle top. As long as spot selling is absorbed and macro risk indicators avoid a reversal back toward defensiveness, Bitcoin’s higher-level bullish structure remains intact.

The key confirmation ahead will be a stabilization in Spot Taker CVD alongside a decisive breakout in the Silver/Gold ratio, which would strengthen the case for trend continuation rather than exhaustion.

Written by CryptoZeno

In this post, I will analyze ETH’s price action from October to the present and show how much the derivatives market has cooled during this period.

• Price action:

Areas 1–4: On the daily chart, there were only four opportunities with a favorable risk–reward profile to open short positions, using Anchored VWAPs (white lines) and the 50-day SMA (blue line) as visual references. These indicators acted as resistance.

Areas 5–9: The AVWAP anchored to the Middle East war low acted as support for more than one month, prior to the definitive breakdown on November 3 (5–8). The AVWAP anchored to the 2025 ATL served as strong support for four consecutive days before the breakdown on November 13, when price closed below it (9).

Currently, ETH is trading sideways between the AVWAPs anchored to the first 2021 ATH and the most recent ATL.

• Open Interest:

At the beginning of October, ETH open interest stood at USD 30B, and has since declined to USD 18B. The derivatives market cooled significantly following the sharp sell-off on October 10.

• For now, from October to the present, Ethereum has been dominated by sellers.

Written by _OnChain

1️⃣We talked a lot in the last months about the Realized Price of ETH Accumulating Addresses. As you can see, the price fell down to the level this metric shows, but it bounced up 3 times from that level.

✅Of course, no support level is unbreakable, but the fact that the price bounced 3 times right on this metric after a big drop is like proof that we pointed to a very correct and important level.

The metric in the chart tracks wallets that meet all of the following criteria:

🟢Their most recent purchase was 100+ ETH in a single transaction (whale-sized buy).

🟢They have purchased ETH at least twice.

🟢They have never sold any ETH (diamond hands).

🟢Their current balance is 100+ ETH.

🟢CEX addresses are excluded.

2️⃣When we dig deeper into this metric, we reach these results. As you can see in the 2nd image, especially AT THE MOMENTS WHEN THE PRICE TOUCHES this metric, there are very big and strong peaks in the inflows of these addresses. This means that, for these whales too, that level is a defending support level.

3️⃣Also, in the 3rd image, when we look at these whales' balances, we see that on 21 November 2025, the day the price touched this metric, they had 24.4 million ETH, and today, on 24 December 2024, they have 27.2 million ETH. This means that since the day the price touched this metric, these whales have accumulated more than 2.8 million ETH. This amount is 2.35% of the circulating supply.

4️⃣If the market stays bearish and this support breaks, below it there is ETH's overall market realized price. The value it shows today is about $2,300.

✅In onchain analysis, a price below Realized Price means it is cheap compared to the market average. For an investor who is hopeful about the next period, as long as they hold a hedge contract in the derivatives market (for example, by paying a small premium as an insurance fee for a PUT-LONG contract), accumulating ETH step by step below the price of "accumulating addresses" stands out as a very reasonable option.

Written by CryptoMe

The Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) on Binance shows a clear shift in trader behavior when comparing the previous period of low leverage with the recent surge, which represents the highest level in nearly a month. This comparison highlights how the market has transitioned from a defensive phase to a gradual testing of risk appetite.

During the previous downturn, the ELR declined from highs near 0.19 to a low of around 0.164. This drop coincided with a decline in Bitcoin’s price and clear corrective pressures, reflecting a widespread exit from highly leveraged positions, either through liquidations or voluntary risk reduction. At that time, the market was extremely cautious, with traders preferring to reduce exposure rather than continue betting on volatile price movements. Such an environment typically accompanies periods of uncertainty and heightened sensitivity to price shocks.

In contrast, the recent rise in the ELR presents a different and more balanced picture. The index currently stands at around 0.173, its highest level in about a month, while still remaining below previous peaks. Notably, this increase has been gradual rather than abrupt and has not been accompanied by a strong price breakout, with Bitcoin trading near $87,000. This divergence suggests a partial return to leverage within a calculated range, reflecting a modest improvement in risk appetite without excessive speculation.

Comparing the two periods shows that the earlier reduction in leverage was a defensive response to a high-risk environment, whereas the current rise now the highest in a month signals a phase of cautious testing and position building. In essence, the market has shifted from risk elimination toward the gradual reintroduction of leverage.

Written by Arab Chain

Price is currently positioned below the SMA (14, 30, 50) averages. This indicates that the funds entering Binance are weak relative to price. We can infer that BTC flowing into the exchange is not intended for accumulation, but rather for selling purposes. Demand remains weak, and this structure does not generate upward momentum.

All moving averages of the Fund Flow Ratio appear flat to slightly downward sloping. Even if price moves higher, there is not enough demand to shift the primary trend upward. Because price is not advancing, capital inflows are not increasing either. There are no new buyers only existing liquidity changing hands. Even if price rises, such moves would not be sustainable. As consistently emphasized, although short term relief rallies may occur, the primary trend is likely to continue downward.

Another notable point on the chart is the presence of sharp upward and downward spikes, while the average value fails to expand. This suggests intense intraday trading activity dominated by scalping and short term trades. There is no clear position building; investors remain indecisive. Volatility exists, but it lacks the strength to reverse the trend.

A clear divergence between price and Fund Flow Ratio is evident. BTC is currently trading around $87K. While price declines, the Fund Flow Ratio does not show a corresponding strong increase. This indicates that strong buying interest is not emerging at support levels. Bitcoin has not yet developed a cheap perception, and whales are still not willing to take risk. Based on this data, a major rally should not be expected. Instead, corrective rebound moves within a sideway to downward consolidation are more likely, as price continues to encounter selling pressure on every upward move.

Without sustained Fund Flow Ratio strength above the 0.02 level, any BTC price increases should be viewed as selling opportunities.

Written by PelinayPA

The Exchange Whale Ratio across all exchanges has been trending lower and stabilizing below recent local highs, while Bitcoin price consolidates around the $87K level.

Historically, a declining or range-bound whale ratio suggests that large holders are contributing less to exchange inflows relative to smaller participants. This typically indicates reduced immediate sell pressure from whales, even during periods of elevated price levels.

Despite short-term volatility, the 30-day SMA of the Exchange Whale Ratio remains well below prior peak zones observed during stronger distribution phases in 2024. This divergence implies that recent pullbacks are more likely driven by short-term traders rather than aggressive whale selling.

If the whale ratio continues to stay muted while price holds above key support zones, the market structure remains constructive, with room for further upside once demand strengthens.

Whales are not aggressively distributing at current levels a supportive signal for Bitcoin’s broader trend.

Written by CryptoZeno

The latest data shows a clear decline in Bitcoin inflows to Binance coming from whales over the month of December.

Specifically, monthly whale inflows dropped from around $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion, effectively being halved within just a few weeks. This sharp contraction points to a significant slowdown in BTC deposits to Binance by the largest holders, an important signal given their strong influence on market dynamics.

That said, this broader trend does not rule out the occurrence of occasional significant movements. Some inflows can still impact the market, even if they remain relatively isolated. Recently, a spike of $466 million was observed across the 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC cohorts, along with more than $435 million in inflows coming specifically from the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC range.

These sudden movements are a reminder that whales retain the ability to influence volatility at any time, even within a broader slowdown.

This is precisely why monitoring whale behavior remains critical. By moving thousands of BTC in single transactions, these participants can trigger sharp market moves, whether through sudden volatility spikes or deeper corrections, depending on the volumes deposited and potentially sold.

In the current environment, the observed trend remains constructive. Binance continues to capture the largest share of exchange-related flows. When inflows from influential participants such as whales decline on this platform, it generally suggests a reduction in their selling pressure. In other words, fewer BTC being deposited mechanically means less immediate selling, which is a relatively positive signal for short-term market balance.

Written by Darkfost

The last 30 days of Bitcoin exchange netflow data show a market that is quietly shifting into accumulation mode, while large holders actively reposition liquidity across major trading venues. On the surface, total netflows point to reduced sell pressure, but the whale layer reveals where risk and opportunity are actually building.

Most top exchanges recorded net BTC outflows, a classic accumulation signal as coins leave exchanges for longer-term holding. Coinbase Advanced stands out, with strong net outflows reinforced by whale behavior, confirming that large investors are removing supply rather than preparing to sell. Similar alignment appears across Bybit, OKX, Kraken, Bitstamp, KuCoin, and Gate.io, where whale netflows follow total flows.

This consistency matters: when whales and aggregate flows move in the same direction, the signal is structurally stronger and historically associated with tightening exchange supply.

Binance, however, tells a very different story. While total netflow shows BTC leaving the exchange, whale netflow flips sharply positive. This divergence suggests internal redistribution rather than accumulation, with large holders moving inventory onto the most liquid venue. Such behavior often precedes volatility, as concentrated whale balances increase the market’s sensitivity to sudden order flow shifts.

At the other end of the spectrum, Bitfinex and HTX Global show net inflows at both total and whale levels, pointing to localized selling pressure or tactical positioning rather than broad risk-off behavior.

Overall, the data supports a constructive Bitcoin outlook, but with a critical caveat: accumulation is real, yet whales are selectively choosing where liquidity sits. Tracking exchange-specific whale netflows, not just total exchange balances, is now essential for understanding near-term price dynamics and potential volatility triggers.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Open interest in call options typically peaks at the peak of a price rally. In this cycle, it peaked in December 2024 and has gradually declined.

Currently, open interest in call options is at a bottom.

On the other hand, open interest in put options is rapidly increasing.

While an increase in put options generally indicates increased downward pressure, it can also signal a potential market reversal.

Currently, whales are accumulating massive amounts of $BTC. Furthermore, the current low in options investors' expectations for a price rally increases the likelihood of a reversal.

Written by CW8900

On Oct 21, BCMI returning to the 0.5 zone was interpreted as a cooling phase rather than a cycle top.

Since then, Bitcoin price has declined materially, and BCMI has fallen together with price.

This confirms that the market has not only cooled through time,

but has reset through both price and on-chain momentum.

Historically, meaningful cycle bottoms in 2019 and 2023 formed when BCMI reached the 0.25–0.35 range.

Those levels reflected full sentiment compression and structural reset.

At current levels, BCMI is:

Below equilibrium,

But still well above historical bottom zones.

From a data-driven perspective, this opens the possibility that the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not just experiencing a pullback.

If past patterns repeat, a more durable bottom may only form if BCMI revisits 2019–2023 levels.

This is not a forecast, but a scenario worth considering.

At this stage, the market appears to be in a downward transition rather than a completed reset.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

Whale inflows to exchanges indicate potential selling pressure rather than immediate selling activity. Looking at the 30-day trend of whale inflows to exchanges, the metric has declined to the lower bound observed within the current cycle.

This suggests that whale-driven selling pressure is gradually being exhausted. Historically, even if a structural trend reversal does not occur immediately after reaching this level, technical rebounds have consistently followed.

Late December is traditionally a period of reduced liquidity due to seasonal factors. In addition, this Friday marks a major options expiration, which has further suppressed active risk-taking. As a result, both buying and selling interest remain muted, creating a dull and directionless market environment.

However, periods of low volatility in Bitcoin have consistently functioned as energy compression phases, setting the stage for the next directional move.

On-chain data is effective at interpreting past and present market behavior, but it cannot capture future demand. The current bearish sentiment reflects events that have already occurred, while the inflection point in price often emerges before on-chain indicators are able to detect it.

Looking ahead, the first quarter of 2026 presents the potential for a significant inflow of institutional rebalancing capital. Latent demand from institutions and corporations is structurally larger than whale capital, and when it enters the market, price reversals tend to unfold suddenly rather than gradually.

Written by CoinCare