$BTC Big perp driven push higher to squeeze last week's highs.
Generally want to be cautious with these kinda moves early in the week.
If price can trade and hold above $107K that'd show a good amount of strength but even then, this quick Open Interest increase is something you want to get rid of to get a clean reset before really getting excited.
In 2026: We will enter a bear market, with Jerome Powell stepping down as Fed Chairman in May 2026, and the Fed Chairman replacing him. This year, interest rates will begin to be cut rapidly and continuously, in response to the crisis and in response to Trump's desire to appoint the new Fed Chairman.
In 2027: The recovery phase begins, and quantitative easing (QE) will begin under the leadership of the new Fed Chairman, clarifying the vision for the new monetary policy.
In 2028/2029: A bull market (a strong bull market) and a market "supercycle" supported by quantitative easing and low interest rates.
In 2030: A debt crisis and high inflation, and a year of sharp and significant reversal of the trend toward a bear market.
Relatively large move early in the month which is something we see a lot.
Price roughly at the mid range with the monthly open sitting at $104.6K.
I think it's pretty safe to assume that these range high/lows are good triggers for whatever larger trend follows.
Below yesterday's lows at ~$100K and I think we'll keep trending down for another 1-2 weeks as that'd really show weakness and confirm a larger correction is due.
But if price trades back above the monthly highs, the correction is more likely to be over and there's a good likelihood that we head to all time highs and beyond.
Good chance we range around this area for a while though, without any of these levels breaking. So don't get chopped up.
It is having a clear bearish retest of the Head & shoulders pattern.
Targeting 96-100k.
Invalidation/Stoploss :
a breakout & hold above 104800$.
🎉 The Bitcoin network successfully mined block number 900,000 ⛏️🔗 One step closer to the 21 million coin ceiling ✨ Scarcity increases... and value follows 🚀.
$BTC There's a big difference between the green and red areas I've marked on this chart.
The green area saw a +42% increase in price with 30K BTC in Aggregated Open Interest added.
The red area saw just a +8% increase in price with 45K BTC in Aggregated Open Interest added. So that's 50% more OI added in a move that was less than 1/5th the size.
A lot of leverage added into that all time high sweep and I think there's still quite a chunk of that left, which is now trapped at $108K-$110K and is yet to unwind I think.
Open interest going up with price is normal, but it's important that it stays balanced. Where the move in the green area was very clean & healthy, the last push up was paired with a lot of longs chasing and is also one of the main reasons why price stalled out.
A quick flush in open interest back to the white dotted line would make for a nice reset in that regard and would make me more bullish again in the short/mid term.
$BTC After a peak post elections, the search traffic for "Bitcoin" has stalled out and slowly come back down.
Think this adds to the idea that the current market participants are pretty much all from previous years and we've had little inflow of fresh retail capital in 2025.
Institutions however, are allocating at a rapid pace and I suspect these will eventually catch up with each other again.
But we know retail's interest doesn't get peaked much by Bitcoin these days. You need something crazy to make a big run and for BTC Dominance to trend down to really get a renewed retail interest.
Until then, we'll just see the same trend continue where big players are allocating into BTC as BTC Dominance trends higher and alts underperform vs BTC.
If you want to track how altcoins are likely to perform relative to $BTC , one of the main factors will be the $ETH /BTC chart strength.
After the recent squeeze, it has been consolidating between this ~0.022-0.026 range.
If it were to break above that, it should temporarily give another boost to ALT/BTC pairs and primarily ETH related coins (DeFi, ETH Memes, L2s etc).
Below that 0.0224 horizontal I'd start getting very cautious on alts relative to BTC as that might mean this will retrace the squeeze from before. Keep in mind, it does not mean USD values have to go up or down based on this. We often see BTC rally hard and ALT/BTC pairs to drop as was the case for most of this cycle. The opposite can also occur.
I previously explained that a close above 2800 is the prerequisite for any stable rally and for us to emerge from the boredom phase, whether for Ethereum or other currencies. As long as this doesn't happen, the possibility of a visit to the 2250 area remains very likely.
The price reached nearly 2800, which restored enthusiasm among most and created a sense of optimism in the market... but without any close above the number, and even without touching it, the trend changed again and returned to negative territory.
The situation is clear: deliberate distraction and political movements are luring in the near term — which makes settling on a single scenario very difficult during periods of boredom.
But we reiterate: In the medium term, the larger target is still there — the 4k levels are still on the table, but before that, the market is going through stages of correction, consolidation, and psychological tests for speculators.
🎯 Conclusion for speculators: Play these areas with caution.
🔥Altcoin Dominance Analysis – TOTAL2 Index – Weekly Frame.
📊 Technical Insight:
We are witnessing a historical pattern that has been repeating itself with amazing accuracy since 2018, as we observe: • Consolidation zones (yellow boxes) forming at rising lows connected by a major rising trend line. • Each consolidation wave was followed by a massive price explosion of nearly 50% in the altcoin market capitalization. • Currently, we are in a new consolidation phase, very similar to what happened previously in 2020 and 2018. • The TOTAL2 index is close to breaking through the positive technical pattern and launching towards the upper resistance of the ascending channel, which could propel the market to huge leaps.
🧠 Conclusion:
The historical scenario is repeating itself. Any positive breakout from this current area could be the beginning of a new explosive wave for altcoins, with the market capitalization potentially reaching $10 trillion.
📌 Important Note: • The market is currently in a critical moment, so please manage your risks carefully. • This analysis is technical and not a direct buy recommendation. Invest wisely.
🕶 CZ pointed out here that now’s the perfect time to launch an onchain dark pool for DEXs and futures. Displaying all orders in real time opens the door to MEV attacks, slippage, and liquidation risks. TradFi whales moved to the shadows long ago, maybe crypto should catch up?
Different traders, different styles, but the idea makes sense. ZK tech is already here.