At $2.95 trillion, SpaceX has passed Microsoft and now ranks as the 4th biggest public company on the planet.
As of June 2026, Nvidia is still far ahead.
• Nvidia: ~$5T
• SpaceX: ~$2-3T
SpaceX would need to more than double while Nvidia stands still, or SpaceX grows much faster than Nvidia for years.
Why SpaceX Could Win
Starlink
Starlink is the main reason.
It is already a profitable business.
2025:
• Revenue: ~$11.4B
• Profit: ~$4.4B
• Users: ~10-12M
If Starlink reaches 50-100M users, it could become one of the world’s largest telecom businesses.
Starship
This is the real bet.
Starship could reduce launch costs by another order of magnitude.
If successful, SpaceX could dominate:
• Satellite launches
• Lunar missions
• Mars cargo
• Military contracts
• Space manufacturing
Most of SpaceX’s upside comes from Starship.
Network Effects
SpaceX controls:
• Rockets
• Satellites
• Internet service
Very few companies own the entire stack.
This creates a powerful moat.
Why SpaceX May Not Win
1. Starship Is Unproven
The biggest opportunity is also the biggest risk.
Repeated failures or delays could slow growth for years.
2. Valuation Is Already Huge
Much of the future is already priced in.
Perfect execution is expected.
That leaves little room for mistakes.
3. Space Industry Size
Morgan Stanley and McKinsey estimate the entire space economy could reach roughly $1-1.8T by 2035.
SpaceX alone is already valued above that range.
This means investors are pricing in businesses that do not fully exist yet.
Why Nvidia Is So Strong
Nvidia has something SpaceX does not.
Massive profits today.
AI training still runs mostly on Nvidia chips and software.
CUDA created a moat that competitors have struggled to break.
Every major AI company depends on Nvidia.
Revenue and free cash flow are enormous.
What Could Hurt Nvidia
• Custom chips from Google, Amazon and Microsoft.
• Lower AI spending.
• Competition from AMD and others.
• AI becoming cheaper and requiring fewer GPUs.
But none of these threats have seriously damaged Nvidia yet.
Deep Research View
The comparison is misleading.
Nvidia is selling picks during a gold rush.
SpaceX is building infrastructure for a future economy.
Nvidia’s advantage exists now.
SpaceX’s advantage depends on technologies that are not fully proven.
Base Case
Nvidia stays larger through most of the 2030s.
Bull Case For SpaceX
Starship works.
Starlink reaches tens of millions of users.
New industries emerge around cheap access to space.
SpaceX becomes a $10T+ company.
Probability
Can SpaceX surpass Nvidia?
Yes.
Is it the most likely outcome?
No.
The market is already valuing SpaceX as if many things go right.
Nvidia does not need a revolution to justify its size.
SpaceX still does.
That is the difference.
What’s your thoughts ?
#SpaceX #NVIDIA