Pelin Ay

Could Ethereum Be on the Way to a Collapse?

The Binance Price & Volume chart shows a macroeconomic structure that is still in a horizontal trend at its peak. While higher lows have been maintained since the 2020 lows, there has been no new peak formation in recent months. With the recent move, there has been a sharp rejection from the $4.8K region, and the price has now retreated to around $2.9K. The EMA(7), EMA(14), and EMA(30) structures signal a short-term correction. Historically, these types of pullbacks create a new accumulation zone without breaking the main trend.

On the Spot Taker CVD (90-day) chart, Taker Sell Dominant (red) bars are prominent in the current region. However, these red periods have often been seen in bottom or pre-bottom regions in the past. Particularly in the examples of 2021, 2023, and 2024, while Taker sales increased, the price remained horizontal for a while before breaking upwards. There are aggressive sellers now, but these sales are not yet pushing the price below a new major low. Therefore, it is highly likely that we are in a pre-bottom period.

Considering these two charts, I can say that the price is in an accumulation zone and a breakout is imminent.

Looking at historical similarities based on these two charts, after such periods, the price generally first moves horizontally and then makes a sharp downward breakout. In short, the Ethereum price may be in the final stretch before a collapse. $ETH

One of the most important charts for determining market direction is always the #Ethereum chart.

$ETH has been maintaining its horizontal-upward trend for weeks, while also holding onto its intermediate trend support. $2955 is a very important support. A close below this support would indicate that the trend support break is not a trap, and the main trend direction of decline would continue.

The liquidation at the falling trend resistance appears to have been taken, and the direction it should now go is towards the support levels below. #ETH One of the most important charts for determining market direction is always the #Ethereum chart.

$ETH has been maintaining its horizontal-upward trend for weeks, while also holding onto its intermediate trend support. $2955 is a very important support. A close below this support would indicate that the trend support break is not a trap, and the main trend direction of decline would continue.

The liquidation at the falling trend resistance appears to have been taken, and the direction it should now go is towards the support levels below. #ETH

We are in one of the most critical weeks for Bitcoin.

I've been sharing this formation for Bitcoin for perhaps months now, and I can say it's been working well.

I've frequently stated that the $98K resistance is important for the #bitcoin price. Because if there's a reversal from this resistance, the formation will be considered to have worked like Quasimodo. The price reversed downwards from $97950. What I need to pay attention to now is the $88450 trend. If the $BTC price works below this trend, I will consider the formation target to have been reached and the main downtrend to have begun.

If there's an upward reversal from this trend, the price will go to the $102K-$110K range one last time and continue into the bear market from there.

The Japanese interest rate announcement on Friday will clarify this situation. Therefore, I will update this analysis again on Friday. #BTC

Bull and Bear Cycles Have Changed
When the S2F Reversion sharply rises above the 1 level, it has generally indicated either a peak or the beginning of a long horizontal correction period. This is clearly seen in the 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2024 peaks.

Drops below 1 have historically been the best risk/reward zones.

In the current chart, the Reversion value is high but not at extreme peak levels. SMAs are sloping upwards, but volume is weakening as it rises. This structure generally means:
The uptrend continues, but there is a loss of momentum. The intermediate upward trend is not broken. In the short term, the price may exhibit horizontal and volatile increases with small corrections, as it does today.

Bitcoin is neither cheap nor excessively expensive right now. The uptrend continues in the short term, but in the big picture, the downward trend seems likely to continue after the rise.

This post-ETF cycle differs from previous cycles because,
unlike previous cycles, there is a continuous, time-spread demand from institutional investors for spot ETFs. Therefore, although S2F Reversion spikes more frequently, it cannot remain in the extremely negative zone for as long as in past cycles.

Currently, with the Halving, the daily BTC supply has decreased by 50%. Miner selling pressure has structurally decreased. ETFs, however, gain importance at this point because they create net demand exceeding the daily BTC production. For this reason, bear seasons may be more superficial for Bitcoin.

Between 2017-2021, Reversion reached levels of 2+. Afterwards, a 70-80% bear market occurred.

Between 2024-2025, Reversion fluctuated between 1-3. Despite this, the price peaked. Throughout 2025, it moved horizontally both during rises and falls. The price even dropped horizontally from $127 to $81K. There were no sharp crashes.

In the big picture, ETFs and Halving extended and softened the classic 4-year cycle. Therefore, instead of a sudden crash like in 2021, a volatile but upward trend extending into 2025–2026 seems more likely. $BTC

XRP Price Shows Positive Breakout Trend According to Funding Rates

In the chart, when the funding rate spikes sharply and becomes positive, the price either levels off or experiences a sharp pullback shortly afterward. This can be attributed to increased costs for long positions and a higher probability of a long squeeze. In the past, these spikes have acted as warnings of overheating, rather than signaling a continuation of the uptrend.

Another notable pattern in the chart is the periods when the funding rate spikes sharply negatively. Short positions increase, especially when the SMAs break sharply downwards. The market becomes overly pessimistic, and the price forms a bottom. Historically, sharp negative funding has led to short-term rebounds, meaning the price has bottomed out and then risen.

Currently, the chart shows: negative funding rate (around -0.00323), downward sloping SMA(30) and SMA(50), and a significant weighting of short positions on the funding side. This indicates that leverage in the market is heavily weighted towards short positions. There is no excessive optimism; this is a positive market behavior. Therefore, I think the likelihood of a sharp decline in the short term is weak; declines are more superficial and primarily serve to accumulate liquidity. In this environment, if Funding Rates turn positive, the price may react upwards.

In summary, on the XRP side, the funding data is not currently an obstacle to an uptrend; on the contrary, it presents a structure that prepares the ground for an upward movement after a consolidation. In other words, there is no signal of a major rally yet, but the possibility of an upward movement is stronger than a downward breakout. $XRP

Binance Ethereum Leverage Ratio and Price Relationship

A recurring pattern is observed in the chart. When the Leverage Ratio rises rapidly above the price, excessively leveraged long positions accumulate in the market. This creates fertile ground for liquidity hunting.
First, there is a sharp but short-lived price drop. Then, the price reacts strongly upwards. This cycle is clearly seen in the chart in February, April, September, and November 2025. It appears that the declines are for the purpose of clearing leverage.

Specifically, in April 2025, leverage increases, price falls, leverage decreases, and price rises strongly.

In October 2025, a sharp leverage spike and sudden dump are followed by a continuation of the trend.

According to this data, an increase in leverage is not the cause of the decline, but rather a trigger for it.

The current situation is very important. Because the Leverage Ratio is approximately 0.60, a historically quite high band. The price is trading below the Leverage Ratio. This combination has historically generated new upward waves following short-term wicks. Currently, leverage is increasing despite the price increase. This indicates that there is still a willingness to hold positions in the market.

In light of this data, we can say that the probability of an uptrend in the market is high.

However, a short-term liquidation cleanup may occur beforehand.

In the past, every dip when leverage was at these levels resulted in a 10-25% rise. If the same scenario occurs again, the price could quickly show sharp upward movements. $ETH

Binance Reserve Drop Highlights Price Ready for Uptrend

Historically, Binance reserve drops have always been accompanied by uptrends. With each reserve exit, the selling momentum has weakened. Historically, these periods have marked the beginning of strong medium- to long-term uptrends.

I calculated the price movements during reserve exits in the chart based on troughs and peaks, and an interesting picture emerged.

The first significant reserve exit occurred in early 2019. (The area I marked with the first bubble in the chart)
The price rose from $6,500 to $13,800, an increase of approximately 112.3%.

In March 2020 (after the Covid Crash), there was another large reserve exit from the exchange, and the reserve price fell below the reserve price. The price rose from $7,300 to $10,500,

an increase of approximately 43.8%.

The reserve increase from $9,000 to $64,000 at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021 represents a 611% rise.

The Bitcoin price, during the 2024-2025 period (ETF era), increased from approximately $78,000 to $127,000, a 62.8% rise.

According to this graph, every time the BTC reserve on Binance fell below the price, it experienced an increase ranging from 40% to 600%.

In the current situation shown in the graph, the exchange reserve is approximately 649K BTC, while the price is approximately $95,000.

The reserve is significantly below the price and trending downwards. Historically, considering the graph, this indicates that BTC is not being left on the exchange for sale, and the price is expected to continue rising. $BTC #MarketRebound #BTC100kNext?

Ethereum is showing signs of consolidation. I'm expecting an upward bounce before a big drop. $3324 and $3700 appear to be potential resistance levels. #ethereum $ETH

Bitcoin is moving within a formation. I expect the price to first go to the $102k-$110k range and then to the $72k-$57k range. #Bitcoin $BTC

Although Bitcoin dominance is trending downwards, the decline is unreliable due to the low volume. If the drop to 58.19% occurs as indicated on the chart, the #altcoin market might see a brief surge. $BTC

Top 10 Altcoins with the Highest Growth Potential Based on AI in 2026

1. #Ethereum ($ETH)
It is constantly in demand due to being the infrastructure blockchain for NFTs, DeFi, and DAOs. The possibility of institutional ETFs entering Ether is increasing. Significant scaling (Fusaka, etc.) and lower fees are expected to increase network usage.

2. $SOL
Attractive for DeFi + NFT + Web3 development thanks to its very high transaction speed per minute and very low fees.
Growing developer interest and major integrations like Shopify are reported.
It can attract institutional capital through spot ETFs.

3. $LINK
It has become the standard for decentralized oracle infrastructure; the data source for smart contracts. It can grow with cross-chain data protocols (CCIP) and RWA (real-world assets). Institutional demand could increase with Link ETF approval.

4. $ADA
A secure and sustainable blockchain technology based on academic and scientific principles. It may generate value potential as smart contract and dApp adoption increases.

5. $DOT
It enables communication between decentralized chains with its parachain structure and serves as a critical bridge in Web3.
The value of such multi-chain projects may increase in 2026.

6. $AVAX
Thanks to subnets, the network has high scalability and flexibility. As usage in the DeFi + dApp field increases, the demand for AVAX may strengthen.

7. $SUI
A Layer-1 project offering fast transaction capacity and low fees. Its use is expanding in Web3, DeFi, and NFT fields.

8. $UMA
A unique protocol in prediction markets and DeFi products. Its ecosystem may appreciate in value when prediction markets grow in 2026.

9. $FUN
It stands out with its active user and volume growth on the BNB Chain; it may attract new users to prediction markets. This area may gain more attention as part of DeFi in 2026.

10 $TAO
One of the rare projects combining artificial intelligence and blockchain. Halving effect and institutional buying are increasing supply tightness; demand for AI-focused assets is expected to rise.

Coins with ETF Approval and Their Performance in 2025

The coins I believe we should prioritize in our portfolio during the upcoming bull season are those with ETF approval.

1️⃣ Dogecoin ($DOGE) – #DOJE ETF

On September 18, 2025, the Dogecoin ETF, DOJE, was launched in collaboration with REX-Osprey.

On launch day, the Dogecoin price moved around 5%, but showed a year-over-year decrease of approximately 10%. Dogecoin underperformed the overall market during this period.

2️⃣ $XRP ETFs (primarily #XRPR)

In September 2025, it was reported that XRP-focused spot ETFs, including REX-Osprey's XRP ETF, began trading.

With the launch of XRP ETFs, an increase in XRP liquidity and margin demand was observed. Some reports have listed XRP among high-inflow ETFs. XRP funds saw strong demand during the ETF launch days; trading volumes remained solid.

#Bitcoin ($BTC) and #Ethereum ($ETH) spot ETFs were approved in 2024 and continued to be traded much more widely in 2025. Therefore, BTC/ETH ETFs are already listed as approved products in 2025 reports.

🕒 Coins with (Pending) ETF Approval Applications in 2025

#Solana ($SOL) – Multiple ETF applications exist. The #SOL ETF is somewhat controversial. While some sources consider the ETF approved, others remain unclear.

#Litecoin ($LTC) – Several companies have submitted ETF applications.

#Cardano ($ADA) – Under review with combined applications.

#Hedera ($HBAR) – Awaiting approval with ETF files.

#Aptos ($APT) – ETF application process underway.

#Sui ($SUI) – ETF application submitted.

$TRUMP (memecoin ETF application) – Politically themed ETF application submitted, approval probability is low.

$BONK ETF applications – Files pending via Rex Shares.

$LINK is another altcoin awaiting approval.

Ethereum Ready for an Upward Breakout

The chart shows Open Interest at ≈ 7.8B and the price hovering around $3100. This level is neither extremely low nor extremely high; we can infer that the market is maintaining its positions.

Recently, the price has been trending slightly upwards. Open Interest is also increasing. This means that while new positions are being opened, old positions are also being maintained. Investors in the market are not without positions. Volatility is increasing, and a squeeze is forming.

Open Interest is recovering above the SMA(30), SMA(50), and SMA(100) averages. This indicates a renewed willingness to take risks in the leveraged market. If the price remains above $3000 and the Open Interest increase continues gradually instead of sudden jumps, it will produce a controlled upward movement supported by the spot market. In this case, the price will continue its upward movement up to the $3700 level. This is my bias.

Ethereum is currently preparing for an uptrend. As Open Interest increases, investor demand increases. We may see a sharp movement in the short term. The market will either be relieved by a positive breakout or cleansed by liquidation. My expectation is that the $3324 resistance will be broken positively, leading to a continuation towards $3700, after which it will revert to the main downtrend. $ETH

📉 Top 10 Altcoins with the Biggest Declines in 2025

1️⃣ $MELANIA

Why: Unexpectedly priced as a political meme token; lost almost all its value after a short period of hype. Insider selling and a collapse in speculative demand shattered the price.

2️⃣ $LIBRA

Why: Rapid rise following the introduction of the Argentine President, followed by a sudden rug-pull-like collapse; founders sold off a large portion. Legal investigations into the software and marketing continued.

💨 $TRUMP

Why: President-themed meme coin attracted significant investment at its peak but gave back most of its value when the hype ended.

4️⃣ Berachain ($BERA)

Why: TVL and price were very high at the beginning of the year, then collapsed due to a lack of market demand. Liquidity tightened.

5️⃣ Mantra ($OM)

Reason: Manipulation allegations, significant selling pressure, and the liquidation of derivative positions deeply affected the price.

6️⃣ Celestia ($TIA)

Reason: Weak demand + strong token unlock cycle; failed to sustain investor interest. The market was heavily impacted by the broad altcoin crash.

7️⃣ $FET / $ASI

Reason: Launched during the AI sector hype but failed to sustainably attract users/adopt, resulting in lackluster performance.

8️⃣ Optimism ($OP)

Reason: Low demand, continuous token unlocks, and inability to attract enough users in a competitive Layer-2 environment.

9️⃣ $BONK

Reason: General cooling off in meme coins and weakening trading activity in the Solana ecosystem. The decrease in speculative trading caused a sharp decline.

🔟 $WIF (Dogwifhat)

Reason: Breaking through critical support levels after a rapid price increase, false partnership claims, and a psychological rupture.

📈 Top-Rising Altcoins in 2025
1️⃣ $MYX
Reasons for the
👉🏻 Being a new derivatives/perpetuals-focused token in the popular BNB Chain ecosystem.
👉🏻 airdrop programs and community growth.
👉🏻 Low supply and speculative demand.

2️⃣ Zcash ( $ZEC )
A large-scale privacy-focused project.
Reasons for the
👉🏻 Strengthening the privacy/anonymity narrative triggered global user and investor

3️⃣ $WFI
A high-performance token with a small market capitalization.
Reasons for
👉🏻 Transparent market response and increased liquidity.

4️⃣ $HYPER
Reasons for the
👉🏻 Real and measurable use.
👉🏻 HYPE offered an actively used product, not a story.
👉🏻Hyperliquid operates as an on-chain perpetual futures DEX

5️⃣ $SOL ~209%
Reasons for the Rise:
👉🏻Proven network performance and stability
Long-term uninterrupted operation
👉🏻Transition to the Firedancer client
👉🏻Significant improvements in TPS, latency, and finality

6️⃣ $Rain Protocol ~184%
Altcoin with a prediction market concept.
Reasons for the rise:
👉🏻Attracted investor interest with marketing and new DeFi narratives. 👉🏻New capital inflows into prediction protocols in the sector.

7️⃣ $BNB ~173%
Reasons for the Rise:
👉🏻 Token Burning
👉🏻 It has an Auto-Burn + Real Burn system.
👉🏻 Even if supply constantly decreases while demand remains constant, the price goes up.

8️⃣ Zebec Network ($ZBCN) ~+164%
Payment / real-time streaming token.
Reasons for the rise:
👉🏻 Institutional interest with real-time payment / revenue streaming use cases.

9️⃣ Zora ( $ZORA ) ~+138%
Social finance (#SocialFi) / Layer-2 focused project.
Reasons for rise:
👉🏻Becoming a trend due to the interaction between NFTs and social finance. announcements.

🔟 Monero ($XMR) ~+115%

Privacy-focused giant crypto.
Reasons for rise:

👉🏻Investor demand for privacy solutions due to the stagnation of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
👉🏻Strengthening of the crypto freedom/privacy narrative.

Last week, I said that Ethereum's price remaining below the symmetrical triangle was a trap. Currently, the price is near the first significant resistance level at $3324. I consider a rise to $3700 reasonable. A close above $3700 would shift my bias upwards.

Unless this scenario occurs, I expect the price to continue its downtrend and make a new low, possibly around $1700. $ETH

Bitcoin has started the interim uptrend I've been waiting for for a month. I expect the rise to continue up to the $102K-$110K range.

The first resistance Bitcoin will encounter in this rise will be $98K. I would start looking for a reversal and being cautious for a short entry above $98K.

I've said this rise will always be an exit opportunity. The main direction is still downwards. A new low will follow this rise. First $72K, then $50K. $BTC

Due to global uncertainty, both the $DXY and $BTC are rising simultaneously.

The Maduro events caused both the #DOLLAR index and Bitcoin, which acts as digital gold, to rise at the same time. This is an unusual situation for the markets. In this uncertain environment, small investors are shifting to the dollar, while institutions are preferring assets like #Bitcoin and #GOLD.

The crucial point is that as these assets rise, Bitcoin dominance is also increasing. In this environment, I expect sharp upward movements in the crypto market this week.

Reasons for the Large XRP Outflow from Binance on January 1st
1. The sudden drop seen on January 1st is noteworthy. Whales transferred XRP from Binance to wallets. This transfer may have been for custody OTC agreements or cross exchange transfers. Such outflows can reduce the supply on the exchange potentially driving up the price. However, we don't see this price increase.
2. It could be an internal Binance operational move. Binance sometimes performs hot and cold wallet balancing, regulatory compliance, or year end balance/reserve restructuring. These operations technically reduce the supply, but they don't produce market behavior. Looking at the price on the chart we don't see the same momentum of price increase. Therefore this reason seems more logical.
3. This supply reduction could also be for ETF or derivative product preparation. On the XRP side it could be for derivative product collateral, liquidity pool preparation, or transfer to market makers. In this scenario the coin is issued to generate liquidity.
The crucial part is that this supply which was released from the exchange returned to Binance on January 2-3. The fact that the released supply returned so quickly is proof that it was a fake out. With this release whales measured the market's reaction to the supply reduction. They looked to see if sellers were decreasing. When the expected aggressive buying didn't materialize, XRP was moved back to the exchange. This indicates that the supply release was a controlled planned move.
The supply release on Binance was a ploy to raise the price and sell XRP. However it didn't find enough demand. When the price didn't show an upward effect the XRPs were moved back to the exchange. The chart clearly shows that even the supply reduction couldn't cause a rise in XRP. This indicates that institutional investors are still finding a price to buy. In the short term as long as Binance's supply ratio remains high a sharp rally in $XRP seems difficult. Since supply releases raise the price and then suppress it with selling it would not be correct to expect an uptrend

Ethereum Open to Liquidity Hunt
In the chart,
Total Inflow: 1.595T
Total Outflow: 1.583T

The net difference is around $12B USD and is very limited. This indicates that there is no aggressive net inflow or outflow of money on the #Binance side. The market is not in panic mode. It seems to be more of a position change and waiting phase. This kind of balance usually coincides with periods of horizontal consolidation.

Inflow,
$USDT: 641.7B (40.22%)
$USDC: 469.6B (29.43%)

Outflow,
USDT: 627.4B (39.62%)
USDC: 469.5B (29.65%)

There is a very clear balance in stablecoins. Stablecoins are coming to the exchange but also leaving, meaning there is no large amount of money expected for buying. But there is no flight from the market either. This pattern generally occurs when whales haven't made a clear decision to buy, and they don't find the price increase sufficient to sell their ETH in their wallets.

$ETH Inflow
418.1B (26.21%)

#ETH Outflow
420.6B (26.56%)

There's a very slight outflow dominance on the ETH side. #Ethereum is entering exchanges with the potential intention of selling. However, the outflow is almost the same size, meaning the sold ETH is being replaced. This shows that long-term investors haven't abandoned ETH. It's clear that most of the inflows and outflows are due to short-term trading, futures/hedge trading, or arbitrage. These inflows and outflows aren't putting pressure on the ETH price. However, there's not yet enough power to start a rally.

Assets like $UNI, $LINK, $AAVE, $DAI, and $PAXG are very small in terms of percentage. There's no altcoin season behavior. If there were an altcoin rally, we would see outflow > inflow in these assets. In other words, withdrawals from exchanges would increase. ETH price is expected to continue its sideways movement in the short term. Breakouts may remain as fake breakouts. The possibility of a liquidity hunt seems high. #Ethereum