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$BTC has always been a cyclical beast 👀 2013: -87.06% 2017: -83.46% 2021: -78.57% 2025: people see one tiny bounce and immediately scream “TO THE MOON!” — then call me stupid for staying cautious. $ETH
Every cycle, I used to respond:
“Sure, maybe I’m dumb.”
But here’s the truth: When the market pumps, nobody sends me their profits. When it crashes, nobody apologizes.
So in 2025, my answer is simple:
Trade your conviction. If you win — you keep it. If you lose — you own it.
The move up failed to build acceptance and upside attempts keep getting absorbed quickly. Price action looks heavy with no real momentum follow-through, suggesting this is a corrective bounce into supply rather than a reversal. As long as sellers defend this zone, continuation to the downside remains the cleaner play.
The rebound lacks follow-through and keeps getting sold into, with upside attempts failing to gain acceptance. Structure remains heavy and momentum is rolling over again after the bounce. This reads like a corrective move into supply rather than a trend shift, keeping continuation to the downside favored while this area caps.
The push higher failed to get clean acceptance and upside momentum is fading. Rejections are showing up again, suggesting supply is active rather than buyers taking control. This looks like a corrective bounce into resistance, keeping downside continuation favored while this zone caps.
Price pushed back into the 0.39–0.40 area but couldn’t build acceptance. Each attempt higher gets absorbed quickly, and momentum fades instead of expanding. This looks like a corrective bounce into supply rather than a reversal, keeping downside continuation favored while this zone caps.
Price pushed back into the 0.023 area but failed to build acceptance. Upside attempts keep getting absorbed, follow-through is weak, and momentum is rolling over instead of expanding. This reads like a corrective bounce into supply rather than a reversal, keeping downside continuation favored while this zone caps.
Price pushed back into the 21–22 zone but failed to gain acceptance higher. Upside follow-through is weak, rejections keep showing up, and momentum is starting to roll over instead of expanding. This reads like a corrective bounce into supply, not a trend shift, keeping downside continuation favored while this area caps.
Price pushed back into the 0.39–0.40 area but couldn’t build acceptance. Each attempt higher gets absorbed quickly, and momentum fades instead of expanding. This looks like a corrective bounce into supply rather than a reversal, keeping downside continuation favored while this zone caps.
The push higher failed to get clean acceptance and upside momentum is fading. Rejections are showing up again, suggesting supply is active rather than buyers taking control. This looks like a corrective bounce into resistance, keeping downside continuation favored while this zone caps.
The bounce failed to build follow-through and sellers are leaning into strength again. Price is struggling to hold above recent highs, with momentum rolling over instead of expanding. This looks like distribution after a relief move, favoring downside continuation while resistance keeps capping.
The pullback lost momentum quickly and sellers failed to push acceptance lower. Price is holding structure with bids stepping in on weakness, while momentum is starting to stabilize again. This looks like a pause inside the move rather than distribution, keeping continuation favored as long as the base holds.
The push up failed to build acceptance and sellers are stepping in on strength. Structure is rolling over with repeated rejections, and momentum is fading rather than expanding. This reads like a corrective bounce into supply, favoring downside continuation while resistance holds.
The sell-off slowed down quickly and bids are stepping in on weakness. Price isn’t breaking structure, just compressing after the last push, with momentum starting to stabilize again. This looks like a reset inside the move rather than distribution, keeping continuation as the higher-probability path while this base holds.
Selling pressure has clearly slowed after the dip, with buyers absorbing supply instead of letting price accept lower. Structure is still holding and momentum is stabilizing rather than flipping bearish. This reads like a reset after the move up, not distribution, keeping continuation as the higher-probability scenario while the base holds.
The push up failed to get real acceptance and upside momentum is fading quickly. Rejections are showing up again, suggesting supply is still active rather than buyers taking control. This move looks more like a corrective bounce than a trend shift, keeping downside continuation favored while resistance holds.
At a minimum, I want to see $ZEC revisit the 200-day simple moving average. A clean touch-and-go there would make a lot of sense from a structure and mean-reversion perspective.
Right now, price is still working its way lower in a controlled, corrective manner — no panic, no expansion. That kind of behavior usually points to the market searching for acceptance, not breaking down impulsively.
If price and the 200-day SMA meet in the middle, the most natural convergence zone sits around the $300 area. That level aligns with prior interaction and would be a logical place to watch for reaction.
That zone should tell us everything: either this remains a higher-timeframe reset, or it turns into something deeper.
The recent move higher shows weak follow-through and starts to stall near resistance. Buying pressure fades quickly on each push, while sellers keep absorbing strength. Structure looks heavy again, pointing more to distribution than continuation as long as this zone caps.
The rebound shows weak follow-through and gets sold into quickly, suggesting distribution rather than accumulation. Structure remains heavy with lower highs, and momentum isn’t expanding on pushes up. As long as supply keeps capping, continuation to the downside stays favored.
The recent move higher shows weak follow-through and starts to stall near resistance. Buying pressure fades quickly on each push, while sellers keep absorbing strength. Structure looks heavy again, pointing more to distribution than continuation as long as this zone caps.
Trade $FRAX here 👇
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