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Mad Lukas

Co-Founder of AliX Pay & Aliniex, OnBlock Ventures
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Sonic Labs, the team behind the Sonic blockchain, has approved a plan to allocate up to $50 million worth of S tokens as seed capital for a potential U.S.-listed ETF. The goal is to give $S exposure to institutional capital through traditional financial products. However, the plan was previously paused due to weak market conditions, low liquidity, and a sharp decline in the S token price, meaning no tokens have been issued so far. To avoid supply dilution, Sonic will only consider moving forward once S trades above and stabilizes above $0.50. At that level, they would issue up to 100 million S tokens, instead of over 600 million if launched at current prices. These tokens would be locked within the ETF, not sold on the open market, and used solely for legal structuring and initial liquidity—minimizing sell pressure and reassuring the community. While an #etf is viewed as a long-term opportunity to attract institutional investors, it is not a short-term priority due to U.S. regulatory hurdles and institutional focus on major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Sonic’s priority remains protecting S token value, activating the plan only when market conditions can absorb supply without price disruption. #SonicLabs
Sonic Labs, the team behind the Sonic blockchain, has approved a plan to allocate up to $50 million worth of S tokens as seed capital for a potential U.S.-listed ETF.

The goal is to give $S exposure to institutional capital through traditional financial products. However, the plan was previously paused due to weak market conditions, low liquidity, and a sharp decline in the S token price, meaning no tokens have been issued so far.

To avoid supply dilution, Sonic will only consider moving forward once S trades above and stabilizes above $0.50. At that level, they would issue up to 100 million S tokens, instead of over 600 million if launched at current prices.

These tokens would be locked within the ETF, not sold on the open market, and used solely for legal structuring and initial liquidity—minimizing sell pressure and reassuring the community.

While an #etf is viewed as a long-term opportunity to attract institutional investors, it is not a short-term priority due to U.S. regulatory hurdles and institutional focus on major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Sonic’s priority remains protecting S token value, activating the plan only when market conditions can absorb supply without price disruption. #SonicLabs
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Memecoins don’t “steal” the spotlight. They simply meet the current demand of capital flows: simple, fast, easy to understand, and easy to play. If builders want attention, they need to: • Build what users actually need • Improve distribution • Tell a clearer, more accessible story • Or accept that their timing hasn’t arrived yet This isn’t about right or wrong — it’s a collision between idealistic building and market reality. • Builders need to drop the ego and face real user demand • The market is emotionally indifferent, but brutally fair: whoever solves the right problem wins #memecoin #Builders
Memecoins don’t “steal” the spotlight. They simply meet the current demand of capital flows: simple, fast, easy to understand, and easy to play.

If builders want attention, they need to:
• Build what users actually need
• Improve distribution
• Tell a clearer, more accessible story
• Or accept that their timing hasn’t arrived yet

This isn’t about right or wrong — it’s a collision between idealistic building and market reality.
• Builders need to drop the ego and face real user demand
• The market is emotionally indifferent, but brutally fair: whoever solves the right problem wins

#memecoin #Builders
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🇺🇲 The US M2 supply hit a new ATH of $22.3T USD. Still less than the national debt. #M2 #ATH
🇺🇲 The US M2 supply hit a new ATH of $22.3T USD.

Still less than the national debt.

#M2 #ATH
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Crypto derivatives volume surges to $86 trillion in 2025 According to CoinGlass data, the crypto derivatives market saw explosive growth in 2025, with total trading volume reaching nearly $86 trillion, averaging about $265 billion per day. Binance led the market with over $25 trillion in volume, accounting for nearly 30% market share! $BNB CME continued to stand out as institutional participation accelerated. However, this rapid expansion comes with higher risk. Deeper leverage and more complex positions make the market more vulnerable to extreme events. A clear example was the October liquidation shock, when over $19 billion in positions were wiped out in just two days. #BNB #Binance {spot}(BNBUSDT)
Crypto derivatives volume surges to $86 trillion in 2025

According to CoinGlass data, the crypto derivatives market saw explosive growth in 2025, with total trading volume reaching nearly $86 trillion, averaging about $265 billion per day.

Binance led the market with over $25 trillion in volume, accounting for nearly 30% market share! $BNB

CME continued to stand out as institutional participation accelerated.

However, this rapid expansion comes with higher risk. Deeper leverage and more complex positions make the market more vulnerable to extreme events. A clear example was the October liquidation shock, when over $19 billion in positions were wiped out in just two days.

#BNB #Binance
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How to think about RISKWhat Risk Really Means? Most people think risk = price volatility (big ups and downs). That’s wrong. Volatility is just noise. Real risk is the chance of permanent loss of capital—money that disappears forever and never comes back. - Drops 40% and recovers → not risky. - Drops 40% and never recovers → that’s true risk. Why You Shouldn’t Fear Volatility? A great business can swing wildly for months and still be safe. A “stable-looking” stock can hide a disaster waiting to happen. Don’t try to avoid ups and downs. Avoid mistakes you can’t undo (buying something that loses value forever). Think in Probabilities The future isn’t one outcome—it’s a range: amazing → average → terrible. Good investors accept uncertainty and prepare for the worst case, not just the best. Risky Doesn’t Always Mean Higher Returns School teaches: higher risk = higher expected return. Reality: risky assets only look like they promise more return to attract buyers. They can still wipe you out. Great businesses usually give you lower risk + higher long-term returns. How to Handle Risk (Just Two Rules) 1. Look at the downside first Ask: “What’s the worst that can happen? Can I survive it?” If the downside is small, the upside usually takes care of itself. 2. Really understand what you’re buying The deeper you understand a business, the fewer blind spots you have, and the less chance of permanent loss. So, Protect your capital first. Profits will follow. (Inspired by Howard Marks, Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, and value investing principles)

How to think about RISK

What Risk Really Means?

Most people think risk = price volatility (big ups and downs).
That’s wrong. Volatility is just noise.
Real risk is the chance of permanent loss of capital—money that disappears forever and never comes back.
- Drops 40% and recovers → not risky.
- Drops 40% and never recovers → that’s true risk.

Why You Shouldn’t Fear Volatility?

A great business can swing wildly for months and still be safe.
A “stable-looking” stock can hide a disaster waiting to happen.
Don’t try to avoid ups and downs.
Avoid mistakes you can’t undo (buying something that loses value forever).

Think in Probabilities

The future isn’t one outcome—it’s a range: amazing → average → terrible.
Good investors accept uncertainty and prepare for the worst case, not just the best.

Risky Doesn’t Always Mean Higher Returns

School teaches: higher risk = higher expected return.
Reality: risky assets only look like they promise more return to attract buyers.
They can still wipe you out.
Great businesses usually give you lower risk + higher long-term returns.

How to Handle Risk (Just Two Rules)
1. Look at the downside first
Ask: “What’s the worst that can happen? Can I survive it?”
If the downside is small, the upside usually takes care of itself.
2. Really understand what you’re buying
The deeper you understand a business, the fewer blind spots you have, and the less chance of permanent loss.
So,
Protect your capital first.
Profits will follow.
(Inspired by Howard Marks, Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, and value investing principles)
ترجمة
The Work No One Sees, The Results Everyone WantsThere is a truth that sounds almost unbelievable: in Dubai, some people make billions of dollars in a single year, and talk about it as casually as morning coffee. After speaking with Muhammad Benghadi, one of Dubai’s most powerful real estate entrepreneurs, I realized something important: real wealth isn’t a few million dollars or dozens of properties — it’s when a city’s skyline carries your signature. Here are the core lessons he shared about building large and lasting wealth: 1. Big wealth comes from daily obsession Not short bursts of motivation, but years of obsession. Thinking about the goal every morning, feeling restless at night because you haven’t done enough. 2. Failure is mandatory tuition The higher you go, the more rejection you face. Successful people don’t ask “Why was I rejected?” — they ask “What’s the next move?” 3. Big money eventually flows into real assets Most ultra-wealthy people end up in real estate because it’s tangible, durable, and protects value over time. 4. Smart diversification means owning the value chain Instead of jumping into new industries, go deeper into your own — construction, materials, interiors — to control speed, quality, and costs. 5. No one starts with a perfect plan Start anyway. Build, adjust, fix, and keep moving. Business is try → fail → learn → refine → repeat. 6. Great products market themselves Ads bring customers once. Quality brings them back and turns them into promoters. 7. Top talent doesn’t need micromanagement Exceptional people know what to do — and often exceed expectations without being told. 8. Success is a lifestyle, not a destination This isn’t a 5-year game. It’s a lifetime game. The winner isn’t the smartest — it’s the most consistent. If he lost everything tomorrow, he says he could rebuild — because money isn’t the key, process is. Final message: Create real value. Solve meaningful problems. Make a positive impact. Do it long enough, and money becomes a natural byproduct. And in today’s world, that long-term mindset also means owning scarce, high-quality assets — from real estate to Bitcoin, $BNB and Ethereum — and holding them with patience. Wealth isn’t luck. It’s the result of how you think, how you live, and thousands of unseen days of persistence, even when no one is watching. #wealthbuilding

The Work No One Sees, The Results Everyone Wants

There is a truth that sounds almost unbelievable: in Dubai, some people make billions of dollars in a single year, and talk about it as casually as morning coffee.
After speaking with Muhammad Benghadi, one of Dubai’s most powerful real estate entrepreneurs, I realized something important:
real wealth isn’t a few million dollars or dozens of properties — it’s when a city’s skyline carries your signature.
Here are the core lessons he shared about building large and lasting wealth:
1. Big wealth comes from daily obsession
Not short bursts of motivation, but years of obsession. Thinking about the goal every morning, feeling restless at night because you haven’t done enough.
2. Failure is mandatory tuition
The higher you go, the more rejection you face. Successful people don’t ask “Why was I rejected?” — they ask “What’s the next move?”
3. Big money eventually flows into real assets
Most ultra-wealthy people end up in real estate because it’s tangible, durable, and protects value over time.
4. Smart diversification means owning the value chain
Instead of jumping into new industries, go deeper into your own — construction, materials, interiors — to control speed, quality, and costs.
5. No one starts with a perfect plan
Start anyway. Build, adjust, fix, and keep moving. Business is try → fail → learn → refine → repeat.
6. Great products market themselves
Ads bring customers once. Quality brings them back and turns them into promoters.
7. Top talent doesn’t need micromanagement
Exceptional people know what to do — and often exceed expectations without being told.
8. Success is a lifestyle, not a destination
This isn’t a 5-year game. It’s a lifetime game. The winner isn’t the smartest — it’s the most consistent.
If he lost everything tomorrow, he says he could rebuild — because money isn’t the key, process is.

Final message:
Create real value. Solve meaningful problems. Make a positive impact.
Do it long enough, and money becomes a natural byproduct.
And in today’s world, that long-term mindset also means owning scarce, high-quality assets — from real estate to Bitcoin, $BNB and Ethereum — and holding them with patience.
Wealth isn’t luck.
It’s the result of how you think, how you live, and thousands of unseen days of persistence, even when no one is watching.
#wealthbuilding
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🇺🇸 U.S. economic growth accelerated in Q3, with GDP reaching 4.3%, well above the 3.2% forecast and the highest level since Q3 2023. The surge was fueled by resilient consumer demand, aggressive infrastructure and AI-related investment from major companies, and higher government spending. Looking ahead, Q4 growth is likely to slow sharply, as the impact of an extended government shutdown weighs on the economy. #GDP #USA
🇺🇸 U.S. economic growth accelerated in Q3, with GDP reaching 4.3%, well above the 3.2% forecast and the highest level since Q3 2023.

The surge was fueled by resilient consumer demand, aggressive infrastructure and AI-related investment from major companies, and higher government spending.

Looking ahead, Q4 growth is likely to slow sharply, as the impact of an extended government shutdown weighs on the economy.

#GDP #USA
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“Crypto Winter May Last Longer, Cash Is Key” — TD Cowen According to TD Cowen, the crypto market may be facing a prolonged crypto winter, with prices likely to remain under pressure or move sideways rather than rebound quickly. In this environment, the firm emphasizes the importance of maintaining cash reserves as part of an investment strategy. Holding cash helps preserve capital, manage volatility, and provides flexibility to take advantage of opportunities if asset prices fall further. The reasoning is straightforward: crypto remains highly volatile, liquidity conditions are uncertain, and past market cycles suggest extended consolidation phases after major downturns. As a result, institutional investors tend to balance exposure to risk assets with sufficient cash to reduce downside risk. Rather than going all-in on crypto, a diversified approach that includes meaningful cash reserves is viewed as a prudent strategy during an extended market slowdown. #BTCVSGOLD #bearmarket
“Crypto Winter May Last Longer, Cash Is Key” — TD Cowen

According to TD Cowen, the crypto market may be facing a prolonged crypto winter, with prices likely to remain under pressure or move sideways rather than rebound quickly.

In this environment, the firm emphasizes the importance of maintaining cash reserves as part of an investment strategy. Holding cash helps preserve capital, manage volatility, and provides flexibility to take advantage of opportunities if asset prices fall further.

The reasoning is straightforward: crypto remains highly volatile, liquidity conditions are uncertain, and past market cycles suggest extended consolidation phases after major downturns. As a result, institutional investors tend to balance exposure to risk assets with sufficient cash to reduce downside risk.

Rather than going all-in on crypto, a diversified approach that includes meaningful cash reserves is viewed as a prudent strategy during an extended market slowdown.

#BTCVSGOLD #bearmarket
ترجمة
Blockchain activity is cooling off — what the data really shows New data from Nansen reveals a clear slowdown in onchain activity across 11 major L1 and L2 networks over the past year, signaling weaker market momentum. Ronin saw the steepest decline, with active addresses dropping around 70%, mainly as interest in the game Pixels faded after its peak. Bitcoin also recorded a 7.2% decrease in active users, making it the only network in the top five showing contraction. Many #Ethereum Layer-2s are losing traction as well. ZKsync’s transaction count fell nearly 90%, while Scroll and Arbitrum also saw notable declines. Despite this, Arbitrum remains among the most-used chains, helped by a strong app ecosystem and the rise of tokenized assets like onchain U.S. equities. Ethereum mainnet continues to expand, with active addresses up 25% and transactions up over 20%, even amid criticism of its rollup-heavy design and liquidity fragmentation. Solana still leads the industry in active users, while $BNB Chain’s 159% growth shows that some networks are managing to retain users beyond short-lived hype cycles. #DownTrendStarting
Blockchain activity is cooling off — what the data really shows

New data from Nansen reveals a clear slowdown in onchain activity across 11 major L1 and L2 networks over the past year, signaling weaker market momentum.

Ronin saw the steepest decline, with active addresses dropping around 70%, mainly as interest in the game Pixels faded after its peak. Bitcoin also recorded a 7.2% decrease in active users, making it the only network in the top five showing contraction.

Many #Ethereum Layer-2s are losing traction as well. ZKsync’s transaction count fell nearly 90%, while Scroll and Arbitrum also saw notable declines. Despite this, Arbitrum remains among the most-used chains, helped by a strong app ecosystem and the rise of tokenized assets like onchain U.S. equities.

Ethereum mainnet continues to expand, with active addresses up 25% and transactions up over 20%, even amid criticism of its rollup-heavy design and liquidity fragmentation.

Solana still leads the industry in active users, while $BNB Chain’s 159% growth shows that some networks are managing to retain users beyond short-lived hype cycles.

#DownTrendStarting
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According to Memento Research, an analysis of 118 token launches in 2025 shows that 84.7% of projects traded below their launch FDV. Median FDV fell 71%, while median market cap dropped 67% after listing. The core issue is poor token design: most tokens are allocated to founders and early investors, while initial circulating supply is extremely low. When unlocks hit, sell pressure overwhelms real demand. At the same time, investor behavior has shifted. Markets are far more cautious, favoring assets with proven history and deep liquidity over new TGEs chasing quick gains. The takeaway is clear: TGE models need a reset. Projects must rethink pricing and tokenomics, and investors should focus on real demand and execution—not hype or branding. #FDV #TGE
According to Memento Research, an analysis of 118 token launches in 2025 shows that 84.7% of projects traded below their launch FDV. Median FDV fell 71%, while median market cap dropped 67% after listing.

The core issue is poor token design: most tokens are allocated to founders and early investors, while initial circulating supply is extremely low. When unlocks hit, sell pressure overwhelms real demand.

At the same time, investor behavior has shifted. Markets are far more cautious, favoring assets with proven history and deep liquidity over new TGEs chasing quick gains.

The takeaway is clear: TGE models need a reset. Projects must rethink pricing and tokenomics, and investors should focus on real demand and execution—not hype or branding.

#FDV #TGE
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The rapid growth of USD-pegged stablecoins is fueling a model of a “global, 24/7, borderless $USD banking system,” allowing users worldwide to access and use the U.S. dollar without relying on traditional banking infrastructure. With a market size now exceeding $300 billion, stablecoins such as USDT and USDC are being integrated into neobanks and digital finance apps. This enables users—especially in regions like Africa and Latin America—to store value in USD and make fast, low-cost, instant cross-border transfers, avoiding the high fees and time restrictions of traditional banks. This trend is supported by U.S. policy aimed at expanding the global role of the dollar, effectively positioning stablecoins as a new digital banking and payment infrastructure that directly competes with the existing financial system. #stablecoin #USD
The rapid growth of USD-pegged stablecoins is fueling a model of a “global, 24/7, borderless $USD banking system,” allowing users worldwide to access and use the U.S. dollar without relying on traditional banking infrastructure.

With a market size now exceeding $300 billion, stablecoins such as USDT and USDC are being integrated into neobanks and digital finance apps. This enables users—especially in regions like Africa and Latin America—to store value in USD and make fast, low-cost, instant cross-border transfers, avoiding the high fees and time restrictions of traditional banks.

This trend is supported by U.S. policy aimed at expanding the global role of the dollar, effectively positioning stablecoins as a new digital banking and payment infrastructure that directly competes with the existing financial system.

#stablecoin #USD
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Gold authenticity is becoming harder to guarantee — even for professionals. As verification methods improve, so do scams. Today, gold can look perfect on the surface, pass basic tests, yet still be diluted inside with materials like tungsten. Detecting this often requires cutting, melting, or advanced lab analysis — after damage is already done. Bitcoin is fundamentally different. Anyone, anywhere, can verify Bitcoin’s authenticity with 100% certainty, instantly, without trust, permission, or intermediaries. No surface tests, no labs, no “cutting it open.” The network itself enforces truth. Gold relies on trust, expertise, and physical inspection. Bitcoin relies on math, code, and global consensus. As counterfeit methods evolve, the cost of trust keeps rising. Bitcoin removes that cost entirely. This is why Bitcoin matters — not as a replacement for gold, but as a new standard for verifiable, trustless value. #BTCVSGOLD $BTC #Bitcoin
Gold authenticity is becoming harder to guarantee — even for professionals. As verification methods improve, so do scams. Today, gold can look perfect on the surface, pass basic tests, yet still be diluted inside with materials like tungsten. Detecting this often requires cutting, melting, or advanced lab analysis — after damage is already done.

Bitcoin is fundamentally different.

Anyone, anywhere, can verify Bitcoin’s authenticity with 100% certainty, instantly, without trust, permission, or intermediaries. No surface tests, no labs, no “cutting it open.” The network itself enforces truth.

Gold relies on trust, expertise, and physical inspection.
Bitcoin relies on math, code, and global consensus.

As counterfeit methods evolve, the cost of trust keeps rising.
Bitcoin removes that cost entirely.

This is why Bitcoin matters — not as a replacement for gold, but as a new standard for verifiable, trustless value.

#BTCVSGOLD $BTC #Bitcoin
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CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market, or at least a phase of significant market weakness. Several key on-chain indicators have turned negative, signaling declining momentum and increasing selling pressure. Data shows weakening market liquidity, with reduced inflows of new capital into Bitcoin compared to earlier periods. CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin’s price could continue to fall, potentially retesting the $70,000 level or lower if the downtrend persists. However, the firm notes this may also represent a deep correction within a broader market cycle, rather than a prolonged bear market like in previous cycles. #Bitcoin #BTCVSGOLD
CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market, or at least a phase of significant market weakness.

Several key on-chain indicators have turned negative, signaling declining momentum and increasing selling pressure.

Data shows weakening market liquidity, with reduced inflows of new capital into Bitcoin compared to earlier periods.

CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin’s price could continue to fall, potentially retesting the $70,000 level or lower if the downtrend persists.

However, the firm notes this may also represent a deep correction within a broader market cycle, rather than a prolonged bear market like in previous cycles.

#Bitcoin #BTCVSGOLD
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🇻🇳 Vietnam Still Among the World’s Top Crypto Users Vietnam ranks high again in the World Crypto Rankings 2025, growing bottom-up with massive user adoption despite no clear regulations or incentives. While Singapore and Hong Kong grow through top-down policy, Vietnam and the Philippines grow from real needs like remittances, savings, small payments, and gaming. Vietnam is now #4 globally in daily crypto usage, mostly using USDT/USDC for cheap, fast cross-border transfers. #Vietnam is also #1 worldwide in DePIN devices, proving how fast locals adopt new tech. #WriteToEarnUpgrade #CryptoMarketAnalysis
🇻🇳 Vietnam Still Among the World’s Top Crypto Users

Vietnam ranks high again in the World Crypto Rankings 2025, growing bottom-up with massive user adoption despite no clear regulations or incentives.

While Singapore and Hong Kong grow through top-down policy, Vietnam and the Philippines grow from real needs like remittances, savings, small payments, and gaming. Vietnam is now #4 globally in daily crypto usage, mostly using USDT/USDC for cheap, fast cross-border transfers.

#Vietnam is also #1 worldwide in DePIN devices, proving how fast locals adopt new tech.

#WriteToEarnUpgrade #CryptoMarketAnalysis
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When Bitcoin hovers around $85,000, Saylor says: “Volatility is Satoshi’s gift to the faithful.” He explains: If BTC simply went up 2% every month in a perfectly steady, non-volatile way, then: “Warren Buffett would have bought it all.” His point: Volatility is what gives early believers a chance to own $BTC — if Bitcoin were too stable, traditional giants would have already swallowed the entire supply. #Bitcoin $BTC #BTCVolatility
When Bitcoin hovers around $85,000, Saylor says:

“Volatility is Satoshi’s gift to the faithful.”

He explains:

If BTC simply went up 2% every month in a perfectly steady, non-volatile way, then:

“Warren Buffett would have bought it all.”

His point:
Volatility is what gives early believers a chance to own $BTC — if Bitcoin were too stable, traditional giants would have already swallowed the entire supply.

#Bitcoin $BTC #BTCVolatility
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Solana has introduced proposal SIMD-0411 to double the annual inflation reduction rate from -15% to -30%. This change will accelerate the network's inflation reduction timeline compared to the original plan. Currently, SOL's inflation rate is at 4.18% with a target of 1.5%. Under the new proposal, the time to reach this target will be shortened from 2032 to early 2029, reducing the timeline from 6.2 years to 3.1 years. This change will reduce the total token issuance by 22.3 million SOL (approximately $2.9 billion at current prices) over the next 6 years. This is expected to decrease selling pressure from staking rewards and increase token scarcity. The proposal is well-received for its simple, predictable design that doesn't alter the core tokenomics structure. It only adjusts the inflation reduction rate, making monitoring and impact assessment more transparent. With faster inflation reduction, staking yields will become less dependent on new token issuance and gradually stabilize. This could encourage users to hold SOL longer instead of selling, thereby increasing ecosystem sustainability. #Solana $SOL #SolanaStrong
Solana has introduced proposal SIMD-0411 to double the annual inflation reduction rate from -15% to -30%. This change will accelerate the network's inflation reduction timeline compared to the original plan.

Currently, SOL's inflation rate is at 4.18% with a target of 1.5%. Under the new proposal, the time to reach this target will be shortened from 2032 to early 2029, reducing the timeline from 6.2 years to 3.1 years.

This change will reduce the total token issuance by 22.3 million SOL (approximately $2.9 billion at current prices) over the next 6 years. This is expected to decrease selling pressure from staking rewards and increase token scarcity.

The proposal is well-received for its simple, predictable design that doesn't alter the core tokenomics structure. It only adjusts the inflation reduction rate, making monitoring and impact assessment more transparent.

With faster inflation reduction, staking yields will become less dependent on new token issuance and gradually stabilize. This could encourage users to hold SOL longer instead of selling, thereby increasing ecosystem sustainability.

#Solana $SOL #SolanaStrong
ترجمة
Unfavorable technical signals and current crypto market risks: 1. Negative technical signals: - SuperTrend indicator switches to "sell" signal on weekly timeframe - Bitcoin closes below the 50-week MA - crucial boundary between bull/bear markets - Similar pattern previously led to 84% (2018) and 77% (2022) corrections 2. Market sentiment: - Fear & Greed Index drops to 11 points - lowest since February 2025 - Reflects spreading "extreme fear" sentiment - Declining trading volume 3. Capital flow pressure: - US Bitcoin ETFs recording consecutive outflows - Decreasing accumulation demand from listed companies - Institutional money flow no longer as strong as early year 4. Possible scenarios: - Scenario 1: Continue declining before reversal (like 2021) - Scenario 2: Maintain prolonged downtrend (like 2022) 5. Assessment: - Bitcoin's short-term outlook becomes challenging - However, not every sharp correction leads to a prolonged bear cycle - Could be foundation for a more sustainable uptrend #MarketPullback #BTC90kBreakingPoint
Unfavorable technical signals and current crypto market risks:

1. Negative technical signals:
- SuperTrend indicator switches to "sell" signal on weekly timeframe
- Bitcoin closes below the 50-week MA - crucial boundary between bull/bear markets
- Similar pattern previously led to 84% (2018) and 77% (2022) corrections

2. Market sentiment:
- Fear & Greed Index drops to 11 points - lowest since February 2025
- Reflects spreading "extreme fear" sentiment
- Declining trading volume

3. Capital flow pressure:
- US Bitcoin ETFs recording consecutive outflows
- Decreasing accumulation demand from listed companies
- Institutional money flow no longer as strong as early year

4. Possible scenarios:
- Scenario 1: Continue declining before reversal (like 2021)
- Scenario 2: Maintain prolonged downtrend (like 2022)

5. Assessment:
- Bitcoin's short-term outlook becomes challenging
- However, not every sharp correction leads to a prolonged bear cycle
- Could be foundation for a more sustainable uptrend

#MarketPullback #BTC90kBreakingPoint
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