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ترجمة
BITCOIN’S 4-YEAR CYCLE ISN’T DEAD — IT’S PLAYING OUT EXACTLY ON TIME.
Zoom out, ignore the noise, and look at the roadmap Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.
The long-term chart gives one of the cleanest signals in crypto:
Cycle Peak Timing:
→ 2012
→ 2017
→ 2021
→ 2025 loading…
Every top has landed roughly 1,420–1,450 days apart — almost like clockwork.
And after every peak, one brutal truth repeats:
2012 top → -79% crash
2017 top → -81% crash
2021 top → -75% crash
Same structure. Same timing. Same macro psychology.
So when people say “This time is different,” the chart says:
No — this time is the same. And the next major peak is lining up for 2025.
If history repeats, we’re entering the final acceleration phase.
Stay focused. Stay strategic.
The real move hasn’t even started yet.
#CYCLE
Zoom out, ignore the noise, and look at the roadmap Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.
The long-term chart gives one of the cleanest signals in crypto:
Cycle Peak Timing:
→ 2012
→ 2017
→ 2021
→ 2025 loading…
Every top has landed roughly 1,420–1,450 days apart — almost like clockwork.
And after every peak, one brutal truth repeats:
2012 top → -79% crash
2017 top → -81% crash
2021 top → -75% crash
Same structure. Same timing. Same macro psychology.
So when people say “This time is different,” the chart says:
No — this time is the same. And the next major peak is lining up for 2025.
If history repeats, we’re entering the final acceleration phase.
Stay focused. Stay strategic.
The real move hasn’t even started yet.
#CYCLE
ترجمة
Bitcoin Overview 2025: Retail buying increases amid whale withdrawal.
The movements of Bitcoin (BTC) holders in 2025 are painting a different picture compared to previous cycles. Instead of extreme volatility and short-term speculative flows, the market is gradually becoming more stable, with the focus shifting to how capital is accumulated, allocated, and repositioned throughout the entire ecosystem.
According to data from Santiment, small wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC have increased their Bitcoin holdings by approximately 3.3% since July. Conversely, the group of large wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC recorded only a modest increase of 0.36%. This disparity clearly reflects a difference in investment behavior: large holders tend to increase their positions when an uptrend is confirmed, then actively reduce exposure near the peak, while small investors patiently accumulate during corrections.
Simultaneously, data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin has been continuously withdrawn from exchanges for much of 2025, reinforcing the long-term holding trend. However, the price of BTC has not yet broken out proportionally, indicating that while capital is present in the ecosystem, it is temporarily on the sidelines awaiting clearer signals. The increase in the supply of ERC-20 stablecoins is evidence of this "wait-and-see" state.
Another noteworthy point is the growing role of the derivatives market. Open contracts and leverage are dominating short-term fluctuations, making prices more susceptible to liquidations than to natural supply and demand in the spot market.
As we enter 2026, Bitcoin may be moving into a more mature phase, where long-term value, discipline, and sustainable market structure take center stage. Price will still reflect value, but perhaps at a slower, more substantive pace.
The movements of Bitcoin (BTC) holders in 2025 are painting a different picture compared to previous cycles. Instead of extreme volatility and short-term speculative flows, the market is gradually becoming more stable, with the focus shifting to how capital is accumulated, allocated, and repositioned throughout the entire ecosystem.
According to data from Santiment, small wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC have increased their Bitcoin holdings by approximately 3.3% since July. Conversely, the group of large wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC recorded only a modest increase of 0.36%. This disparity clearly reflects a difference in investment behavior: large holders tend to increase their positions when an uptrend is confirmed, then actively reduce exposure near the peak, while small investors patiently accumulate during corrections.
Simultaneously, data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin has been continuously withdrawn from exchanges for much of 2025, reinforcing the long-term holding trend. However, the price of BTC has not yet broken out proportionally, indicating that while capital is present in the ecosystem, it is temporarily on the sidelines awaiting clearer signals. The increase in the supply of ERC-20 stablecoins is evidence of this "wait-and-see" state.
Another noteworthy point is the growing role of the derivatives market. Open contracts and leverage are dominating short-term fluctuations, making prices more susceptible to liquidations than to natural supply and demand in the spot market.
As we enter 2026, Bitcoin may be moving into a more mature phase, where long-term value, discipline, and sustainable market structure take center stage. Price will still reflect value, but perhaps at a slower, more substantive pace.
ترجمة
Ethereum L1 transaction volume reaches 2.2 million per day.
Ethereum has just set a new milestone by processing a record 2.2 million transactions in a single day, while average transaction fees dropped to $0.17. According to Etherscan, this achievement reflects a significant increase in network usage coupled with substantial performance improvements.
Previously, Ethereum transaction fees peaked in May 2022, exceeding $200 per transaction. However, continuous upgrades have helped to drastically reduce costs, even as network activity continues to expand. Since October 10th, when fees were at $8.48 amidst a strong liquidation market, transaction costs have steadily declined.
Although high fees once drove users to layer-2 solutions, the increase in transactions on the mainnet shows confidence returning to Ethereum layer-1. Developer activity was also vibrant, with 8.7 million new smart contracts deployed in Q4.
Two major upgrades in 2025 — Pectra and Fusaka — improved staking, validator performance, and raised gas limits, thereby increasing scalability. At the same time, the amount of ETH being staked far exceeded the amount being withdrawn, demonstrating long-term confidence in Ethereum.
Ethereum has just set a new milestone by processing a record 2.2 million transactions in a single day, while average transaction fees dropped to $0.17. According to Etherscan, this achievement reflects a significant increase in network usage coupled with substantial performance improvements.
Previously, Ethereum transaction fees peaked in May 2022, exceeding $200 per transaction. However, continuous upgrades have helped to drastically reduce costs, even as network activity continues to expand. Since October 10th, when fees were at $8.48 amidst a strong liquidation market, transaction costs have steadily declined.
Although high fees once drove users to layer-2 solutions, the increase in transactions on the mainnet shows confidence returning to Ethereum layer-1. Developer activity was also vibrant, with 8.7 million new smart contracts deployed in Q4.
Two major upgrades in 2025 — Pectra and Fusaka — improved staking, validator performance, and raised gas limits, thereby increasing scalability. At the same time, the amount of ETH being staked far exceeded the amount being withdrawn, demonstrating long-term confidence in Ethereum.
ترجمة
The altcoin season is heating up while Bitcoin is slowing down as we head into 2026.
Altcoin season is generally understood as a period when cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin experience significant price increases and outperform. However, the current market is still divided: some argue it's too early to talk about altcoin season, while others are beginning to see the initial signs, even though prices haven't exploded yet. The overall sentiment is neutral, similar to the consolidation phase before a major trend forms.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around the $88,000 mark and has yet to show clear breakout momentum. Notably, many altcoins have stopped forming new lows, indicating weakening selling pressure. In previous cycles, sideways movement or a "cooling down" of Bitcoin often facilitated a shift of capital into altcoins, rather than requiring a sharp drop in BTC.
Dominance data shows Bitcoin gradually losing market share, while Ethereum is recovering significantly. This is often seen as a stepping stone for capital to spread to other altcoins. However, the dominance index of smaller altcoins has not yet increased sharply, suggesting that an altcoin season, if it occurs, will likely be selective.
From a macroeconomic perspective, expectations of Fed easing monetary policy in 2026 remain a key factor. If liquidity improves, the altcoin market could enter a new bull cycle. While nothing is certain, initial signals suggest this scenario is entirely plausible.
Altcoin season is generally understood as a period when cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin experience significant price increases and outperform. However, the current market is still divided: some argue it's too early to talk about altcoin season, while others are beginning to see the initial signs, even though prices haven't exploded yet. The overall sentiment is neutral, similar to the consolidation phase before a major trend forms.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around the $88,000 mark and has yet to show clear breakout momentum. Notably, many altcoins have stopped forming new lows, indicating weakening selling pressure. In previous cycles, sideways movement or a "cooling down" of Bitcoin often facilitated a shift of capital into altcoins, rather than requiring a sharp drop in BTC.
Dominance data shows Bitcoin gradually losing market share, while Ethereum is recovering significantly. This is often seen as a stepping stone for capital to spread to other altcoins. However, the dominance index of smaller altcoins has not yet increased sharply, suggesting that an altcoin season, if it occurs, will likely be selective.
From a macroeconomic perspective, expectations of Fed easing monetary policy in 2026 remain a key factor. If liquidity improves, the altcoin market could enter a new bull cycle. While nothing is certain, initial signals suggest this scenario is entirely plausible.
ترجمة
$XRP Analysis : Ripple is getting closer to a breakout from the descending wedge pattern.
Similar to Ethereum, Ripple (XRP) is currently under significant pressure around the resistance line formed by connecting the highs of November 13th and December 9th, near the $1.90 price level. This trend line, along with the converging support line connecting the lows of October 17th and November 4th, has completed a descending wedge pattern on the daily chart — a technical structure that often signals a potential bullish reversal.
In a positive scenario, XRP closing above $1.90 would confirm a breakout from the pattern, opening up upside potential towards the 50-day EMA at $2.05.
Momentum indicators are also showing signs of improvement. The RSI on the daily chart is currently at 42 and continues to rise after bouncing from oversold territory on December 18th, indicating that selling pressure is gradually weakening. If the RSI crosses above the neutral line, this will reinforce the signal that buying pressure is returning to the market.
In addition, the MACD indicator has maintained a buy signal since the recent crossover, while the continuously expanding green histogram bars reflect increasingly solid upward momentum.
Conversely, if XRP fails to break through the $1.90 resistance zone and reverses for a correction, the price will likely retest the S1 pivot point at $1.79 before retreating further to the support line around $1.68.
Similar to Ethereum, Ripple (XRP) is currently under significant pressure around the resistance line formed by connecting the highs of November 13th and December 9th, near the $1.90 price level. This trend line, along with the converging support line connecting the lows of October 17th and November 4th, has completed a descending wedge pattern on the daily chart — a technical structure that often signals a potential bullish reversal.
In a positive scenario, XRP closing above $1.90 would confirm a breakout from the pattern, opening up upside potential towards the 50-day EMA at $2.05.
Momentum indicators are also showing signs of improvement. The RSI on the daily chart is currently at 42 and continues to rise after bouncing from oversold territory on December 18th, indicating that selling pressure is gradually weakening. If the RSI crosses above the neutral line, this will reinforce the signal that buying pressure is returning to the market.
In addition, the MACD indicator has maintained a buy signal since the recent crossover, while the continuously expanding green histogram bars reflect increasingly solid upward momentum.
Conversely, if XRP fails to break through the $1.90 resistance zone and reverses for a correction, the price will likely retest the S1 pivot point at $1.79 before retreating further to the support line around $1.68.
ترجمة
$ETH Analysis : Ethereum needs to break this trendline to recover in the new year.
Ethereum is currently under pressure from the upper resistance line, formed by connecting the peaks on October 7th and December 10th. At the time of recording, ETH price fluctuated around $3,000 during Wednesday's trading session, continuing its 1.22% gain from the previous session.
In the scenario of a successful breakout above this trendline, Ethereum will likely face its first resistance zone at the 50-day EMA around $3,120, before moving towards the Pivot R1 level at $3,177.
Regarding technical indicators, the RSI is currently at 47 — still below the neutral line — suggesting that buying pressure remains quite cautious as downward pressure has not been fully resolved. However, the MACD indicator is showing positive signals as the MACD line continues to move away from the signal line after the bullish crossover on Saturday, thus maintaining a short-term buy signal.
Conversely, if the price reverses and corrects, the crucial support zone at $2,783 — last tested on December 18th — will act as the first line of defense. Losing this level could push ETH further back to the November 21st low around $2,623.
Ethereum is currently under pressure from the upper resistance line, formed by connecting the peaks on October 7th and December 10th. At the time of recording, ETH price fluctuated around $3,000 during Wednesday's trading session, continuing its 1.22% gain from the previous session.
In the scenario of a successful breakout above this trendline, Ethereum will likely face its first resistance zone at the 50-day EMA around $3,120, before moving towards the Pivot R1 level at $3,177.
Regarding technical indicators, the RSI is currently at 47 — still below the neutral line — suggesting that buying pressure remains quite cautious as downward pressure has not been fully resolved. However, the MACD indicator is showing positive signals as the MACD line continues to move away from the signal line after the bullish crossover on Saturday, thus maintaining a short-term buy signal.
Conversely, if the price reverses and corrects, the crucial support zone at $2,783 — last tested on December 18th — will act as the first line of defense. Losing this level could push ETH further back to the November 21st low around $2,623.
ترجمة
$BTC Analysis ; Bitcoin's New Year's Recovery May Be Limited
Bitcoin is trading around $88,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, maintaining stability after recording a 1.43% increase in the previous session. Recent price movements show BTC fluctuating within a narrow range, forming an isosceles triangle pattern – a signal that the market is in a consolidation phase and awaiting the next breakout.
If buying pressure improves, a rebound from the current support zone could push the price to test the upper resistance trendline, formed by the highs of November 15th and December 9th, around $92,000. This area also converges with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $91,829, further increasing the resistance to the upside.
Momentum indicators on the daily timeframe are somewhat supporting a recovery scenario. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 48 and trending towards neutral, reflecting weakening selling pressure and less pessimistic market sentiment.
In addition, the MACD continues to move upwards in parallel with the signal line after forming a bullish crossover on December 19th. However, the fact that these two lines are still quite close together suggests that the risk of a bearish crossover remains. If this scenario occurs, a sell signal could be triggered in the event of a sharp BTC correction.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the support trendline connecting the lows of November 22nd and December 1st, around $85,000, Bitcoin is likely to retest the low of November 21st at $80,600.
Bitcoin is trading around $88,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, maintaining stability after recording a 1.43% increase in the previous session. Recent price movements show BTC fluctuating within a narrow range, forming an isosceles triangle pattern – a signal that the market is in a consolidation phase and awaiting the next breakout.
If buying pressure improves, a rebound from the current support zone could push the price to test the upper resistance trendline, formed by the highs of November 15th and December 9th, around $92,000. This area also converges with the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $91,829, further increasing the resistance to the upside.
Momentum indicators on the daily timeframe are somewhat supporting a recovery scenario. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 48 and trending towards neutral, reflecting weakening selling pressure and less pessimistic market sentiment.
In addition, the MACD continues to move upwards in parallel with the signal line after forming a bullish crossover on December 19th. However, the fact that these two lines are still quite close together suggests that the risk of a bearish crossover remains. If this scenario occurs, a sell signal could be triggered in the event of a sharp BTC correction.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the support trendline connecting the lows of November 22nd and December 1st, around $85,000, Bitcoin is likely to retest the low of November 21st at $80,600.
ترجمة
Cryptocurrencies face a challenge as the FOMC signals it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates until March 2026.
Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market started the new year under significant pressure, following the release of the minutes from the December FOMC meeting by the US Federal Reserve. The minutes indicated that the Fed is not yet ready to accelerate its monetary easing cycle, thus weakening expectations of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026.
According to the December 30 minutes, many policymakers supported pausing after the 25 basis point rate cut in December, and postponed the next review to at least March. The market has largely ruled out a January rate cut, and the FOMC's cautious tone has made the prospect of a March rate reduction even more tenuous. The earliest scenario currently being discussed is April 2026.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of $85,000–$90,000, indicating weak demand and a prevailing defensive sentiment. Overall market trading volume remains low, reflecting risk appetite that has yet to recover from the year-end correction.
The Fed emphasized that inflation remains a key variable, as price pressures have yet to approach the 2% target, while job growth shows signs of slowing. With real yields remaining high and liquidity tight, the cryptocurrency market is likely to continue facing a consolidation phase and lack upward momentum in the short term, at least until clearer signals emerge regarding monetary policy easing.
Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market started the new year under significant pressure, following the release of the minutes from the December FOMC meeting by the US Federal Reserve. The minutes indicated that the Fed is not yet ready to accelerate its monetary easing cycle, thus weakening expectations of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026.
According to the December 30 minutes, many policymakers supported pausing after the 25 basis point rate cut in December, and postponed the next review to at least March. The market has largely ruled out a January rate cut, and the FOMC's cautious tone has made the prospect of a March rate reduction even more tenuous. The earliest scenario currently being discussed is April 2026.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of $85,000–$90,000, indicating weak demand and a prevailing defensive sentiment. Overall market trading volume remains low, reflecting risk appetite that has yet to recover from the year-end correction.
The Fed emphasized that inflation remains a key variable, as price pressures have yet to approach the 2% target, while job growth shows signs of slowing. With real yields remaining high and liquidity tight, the cryptocurrency market is likely to continue facing a consolidation phase and lack upward momentum in the short term, at least until clearer signals emerge regarding monetary policy easing.
ترجمة
$ZEC Analysis : Zcash leads Q4 privacy rally – Analyst foresees ZEC at $1,000
The broader crypto market reversed most of its earlier gains in 2025, but privacy coins, led by Zcash [ZEC], dominated the narrative throughout the second half of the year.
According to asset manager Grayscale, the top 20 performers in Q4 were privacy coins, including ZEC, Monero [XMR], Dash [DASH], and others.
Beyond investor gains, ZEC and privacy coins also dominated in social mindshare, noted Grayscale.
“Tokens in this theme dominated in mindshare, suggesting that price performance was driven at least in part by strength in narrative momentum. This coincided with rising usage across several privacy networks, including Zcash and Dash.”
Source: Grayscale
In Q4, ZEC posted gains of over 600%, followed by DASH at 218%. XMR saw a 48% rally over the same period.
For most experts, including partners at a renowned venture capital firm, a16z, privacy will be the ‘most important moat in crypto.’ If the narrative extends into 2026, then ZEC could extend its gains.
Can ZEC hit $1000?
Worth pointing out, however, that ZEC’s gains were not that smooth and were one of the most volatile crypto assets in Q4.
After exploding over 1000% in October and tagging a record high of $751, the coin slumped by half to $320 by early December.
At press time, it had reversed some losses and traded at $539, about 35% away from its all-time high (ATH).
Source: ZEC/USDT, TradingView
But can it double from here and cross $1000? According to a pseudonymous analyst, Anonymist, the target was reachable ahead of an inevitable supply squeeze.
The user stated that, out of the current ZEC circulation of 16 million coins, about 5 million are shielded and may not be freely available for trading. That would leave 10 million ZEC for the market. He added,
“As price continues to increase, the tradable supply is being squeezed, with exchanges holding fewer and fewer ‘free coins’. I project that at a price of around $1,000, there may be only around 8-9M tradable coins.”
Source: X/Anonymist
However, at the time of writing, prediction site Polymarket was pricing a 30% chance that Zcash could hit $1,000.
In fact, according to CoinGlass data, 70% of Binance’s top traders were shorting the asset, underscoring bearish sentiment amongst some players.
Still, a growing accumulation in the spot markets could drive the Zcash recovery in the near term.
$ZEC
According to asset manager Grayscale, the top 20 performers in Q4 were privacy coins, including ZEC, Monero [XMR], Dash [DASH], and others.
Beyond investor gains, ZEC and privacy coins also dominated in social mindshare, noted Grayscale.
“Tokens in this theme dominated in mindshare, suggesting that price performance was driven at least in part by strength in narrative momentum. This coincided with rising usage across several privacy networks, including Zcash and Dash.”
Source: Grayscale
In Q4, ZEC posted gains of over 600%, followed by DASH at 218%. XMR saw a 48% rally over the same period.
For most experts, including partners at a renowned venture capital firm, a16z, privacy will be the ‘most important moat in crypto.’ If the narrative extends into 2026, then ZEC could extend its gains.
Can ZEC hit $1000?
Worth pointing out, however, that ZEC’s gains were not that smooth and were one of the most volatile crypto assets in Q4.
After exploding over 1000% in October and tagging a record high of $751, the coin slumped by half to $320 by early December.
At press time, it had reversed some losses and traded at $539, about 35% away from its all-time high (ATH).
Source: ZEC/USDT, TradingView
But can it double from here and cross $1000? According to a pseudonymous analyst, Anonymist, the target was reachable ahead of an inevitable supply squeeze.
The user stated that, out of the current ZEC circulation of 16 million coins, about 5 million are shielded and may not be freely available for trading. That would leave 10 million ZEC for the market. He added,
“As price continues to increase, the tradable supply is being squeezed, with exchanges holding fewer and fewer ‘free coins’. I project that at a price of around $1,000, there may be only around 8-9M tradable coins.”
Source: X/Anonymist
However, at the time of writing, prediction site Polymarket was pricing a 30% chance that Zcash could hit $1,000.
In fact, according to CoinGlass data, 70% of Binance’s top traders were shorting the asset, underscoring bearish sentiment amongst some players.
Still, a growing accumulation in the spot markets could drive the Zcash recovery in the near term.
$ZEC
ترجمة
$XRP has been below the 50-week SMA for 70 days, a familiar pattern before a pump.
XRP has spent 70 consecutive days trading below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a technical benchmark that has often served as a springboard for strong price surges in the past. According to analysts, this period typically culminates in a significant breakout.
Analyst Steph Is Crypto points out that this pattern has repeated itself in many previous cycles. In 2017, XRP stayed below the 50-week SMA for 70 days before surging over 200%. In 2021, the 49-day period below this line resulted in a gain of approximately 70%. By 2024, after 84 days, XRP even jumped over 850%. Notably, XRP is currently again exactly 70 days below the SMA without confirming a breakout, almost identically recreating the old structure.
The chart also shows XRP in a sideways phase, with low volume and price compression – a state that has occurred just before previous strong rallies. According to Steph Is Crypto, this is a “historic period” that often marks the end of a downtrend and the beginning of a price extension phase.
From a longer-term perspective, Egrag Crypto's fractal model – which is said to closely track XRP price behavior with approximately 82% accuracy – suggests potential milestones at $3.20, $8, $15–16, and even $20–27, if the current structure continues. However, the model will weaken if XRP falls below $1.60 and will be completely invalidated if it breaks below $1.30. The timeframe for this extended scenario is set between June and October 2026.
In the short term, XRP is trading around $1.86. Some analysts warn that if key support levels are not held, the price could face the risk of a deep correction, especially given the increasing flow of XRP onto centralized exchanges – a signal often associated with selling pressure.
XRP has spent 70 consecutive days trading below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), a technical benchmark that has often served as a springboard for strong price surges in the past. According to analysts, this period typically culminates in a significant breakout.
Analyst Steph Is Crypto points out that this pattern has repeated itself in many previous cycles. In 2017, XRP stayed below the 50-week SMA for 70 days before surging over 200%. In 2021, the 49-day period below this line resulted in a gain of approximately 70%. By 2024, after 84 days, XRP even jumped over 850%. Notably, XRP is currently again exactly 70 days below the SMA without confirming a breakout, almost identically recreating the old structure.
The chart also shows XRP in a sideways phase, with low volume and price compression – a state that has occurred just before previous strong rallies. According to Steph Is Crypto, this is a “historic period” that often marks the end of a downtrend and the beginning of a price extension phase.
From a longer-term perspective, Egrag Crypto's fractal model – which is said to closely track XRP price behavior with approximately 82% accuracy – suggests potential milestones at $3.20, $8, $15–16, and even $20–27, if the current structure continues. However, the model will weaken if XRP falls below $1.60 and will be completely invalidated if it breaks below $1.30. The timeframe for this extended scenario is set between June and October 2026.
In the short term, XRP is trading around $1.86. Some analysts warn that if key support levels are not held, the price could face the risk of a deep correction, especially given the increasing flow of XRP onto centralized exchanges – a signal often associated with selling pressure.
ترجمة
Two key factors to watch in Q1/2026:
1. Interest rate cut trajectory
Currently, the market believes the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the January FOMC meeting, while the outlook for March is evenly split between two scenarios: no cut and a 0.25% cut.
The optimistic scenario is that the market gradually leans toward the possibility of two or more interest rate cuts of 0.25%. This is because, as expectations of interest rate cuts increase, the price of Bitcoin tends to react positively. This correlation was quite evident in the period leading up to the interest rate cut decision last December.
2. Market Structure Bill
Currently, the legal framework for institutional capital flows in the US crypto sector remains unclear. This leads large institutions to primarily allocate capital through ETFs, rather than investing directly in tokens.
The Market Structure Bill is expected to clarify the "rules of the game," defining how institutions can participate in investing across the entire crypto market. Once regulations are established, large capital flows will have a basis for inflow.
Based on reliable timelines, this bill is likely to be passed only in mid-2026. However, the market always tends to anticipate expectations. Any positive developments regarding the bill could lead investors to anticipate future price increases, thereby driving up crypto prices before the law officially takes effect.
In the long term, this law is seen as a crucial catalyst, helping to shift the balance of capital allocation towards institutional investors – a key resource behind major market growth cycles.
1. Interest rate cut trajectory
Currently, the market believes the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the January FOMC meeting, while the outlook for March is evenly split between two scenarios: no cut and a 0.25% cut.
The optimistic scenario is that the market gradually leans toward the possibility of two or more interest rate cuts of 0.25%. This is because, as expectations of interest rate cuts increase, the price of Bitcoin tends to react positively. This correlation was quite evident in the period leading up to the interest rate cut decision last December.
2. Market Structure Bill
Currently, the legal framework for institutional capital flows in the US crypto sector remains unclear. This leads large institutions to primarily allocate capital through ETFs, rather than investing directly in tokens.
The Market Structure Bill is expected to clarify the "rules of the game," defining how institutions can participate in investing across the entire crypto market. Once regulations are established, large capital flows will have a basis for inflow.
Based on reliable timelines, this bill is likely to be passed only in mid-2026. However, the market always tends to anticipate expectations. Any positive developments regarding the bill could lead investors to anticipate future price increases, thereby driving up crypto prices before the law officially takes effect.
In the long term, this law is seen as a crucial catalyst, helping to shift the balance of capital allocation towards institutional investors – a key resource behind major market growth cycles.
ترجمة
Strategy's method of using half the stock price to buy 225,000 Bitcoin in 2025.
In 2025, Strategy implemented a historic Bitcoin accumulation strategy, purchasing an amount of BTC far exceeding the total number of new coins mined after the halving. The company added approximately 225,027 BTC, bringing its total holdings to nearly 672,500 BTC, significantly higher than the estimated new supply across the entire network of only about 164,000 BTC.
However, towards the end of the year, the stock market reversed course. Strategy shares fell more than 50% in the fourth quarter, shrinking its market capitalization to $48.3 billion, lower than the estimated value of its Bitcoin portfolio at $59.2 billion. This divergence reflects the dismantling of arbitrage transactions that had previously allowed the stock to trade at a high premium relative to its net asset value.
Previously, investors viewed Strategy stock as an indirect leverage tool based on Bitcoin price movements. However, the large-scale issuance of shares to finance BTC purchases in 2025 has increased dilution concerns, leading to short-selling pressure. As of mid-December, over 11% of outstanding shares had been shorted.
When adjusted for debt, Strategy's enterprise value reaches approximately $62.3 billion, nearly matching the value of its Bitcoin holdings. This suggests that the market is no longer valuing the company based on "Bitcoin premium," but is increasingly viewing the stock as a complex leveraged structure sensitive to both BTC price fluctuations and the pace of stock issuance in 2026.
In 2025, Strategy implemented a historic Bitcoin accumulation strategy, purchasing an amount of BTC far exceeding the total number of new coins mined after the halving. The company added approximately 225,027 BTC, bringing its total holdings to nearly 672,500 BTC, significantly higher than the estimated new supply across the entire network of only about 164,000 BTC.
However, towards the end of the year, the stock market reversed course. Strategy shares fell more than 50% in the fourth quarter, shrinking its market capitalization to $48.3 billion, lower than the estimated value of its Bitcoin portfolio at $59.2 billion. This divergence reflects the dismantling of arbitrage transactions that had previously allowed the stock to trade at a high premium relative to its net asset value.
Previously, investors viewed Strategy stock as an indirect leverage tool based on Bitcoin price movements. However, the large-scale issuance of shares to finance BTC purchases in 2025 has increased dilution concerns, leading to short-selling pressure. As of mid-December, over 11% of outstanding shares had been shorted.
When adjusted for debt, Strategy's enterprise value reaches approximately $62.3 billion, nearly matching the value of its Bitcoin holdings. This suggests that the market is no longer valuing the company based on "Bitcoin premium," but is increasingly viewing the stock as a complex leveraged structure sensitive to both BTC price fluctuations and the pace of stock issuance in 2026.
ترجمة
$ETH Analysis : Ethereum held firm above $2,900 amid a surge in selling pressure.
Ethereum (ETH) continues to hold firm at the $2,900 support level, despite increased selling pressure throughout the past week. Exchange Netflow data shows that net ETH deposits on exchanges reached approximately 400,000 ETH, reflecting a clear distribution trend as many investors take profits at the end of the year.
The selling pressure mainly came from the US market. The Coinbase Premium Index fell to -0.12, nearing the lows recorded during the sell-off at the end of November, indicating significantly weaker demand for ETH in the US compared to other markets.
The negative trend also spread to spot ETH ETFs. According to SoSoValue, these funds recorded net outflows of $102.3 million last week. Since December 11th, only one session has seen inflows, indicating that cautious sentiment still dominates among institutional investors.
Analysis by wallet group shows that selling pressure mainly came from addresses holding 100–10,000 ETH, with an estimated total distribution of around 370,000 ETH. Conversely, whale wallets holding over 10,000 ETH remained almost unchanged, suggesting this group maintains a long-term view.
Despite increased selling pressure, ETH's price remains relatively stable, and realized losses in the market are kept low. Technically, ETH is retesting the $3,000 level, coinciding with the 20-day EMA. A successful breakout could lead to the $3,260 region; conversely, a rejection could pull ETH back to the $2,780 support level.
Ethereum (ETH) continues to hold firm at the $2,900 support level, despite increased selling pressure throughout the past week. Exchange Netflow data shows that net ETH deposits on exchanges reached approximately 400,000 ETH, reflecting a clear distribution trend as many investors take profits at the end of the year.
The selling pressure mainly came from the US market. The Coinbase Premium Index fell to -0.12, nearing the lows recorded during the sell-off at the end of November, indicating significantly weaker demand for ETH in the US compared to other markets.
The negative trend also spread to spot ETH ETFs. According to SoSoValue, these funds recorded net outflows of $102.3 million last week. Since December 11th, only one session has seen inflows, indicating that cautious sentiment still dominates among institutional investors.
Analysis by wallet group shows that selling pressure mainly came from addresses holding 100–10,000 ETH, with an estimated total distribution of around 370,000 ETH. Conversely, whale wallets holding over 10,000 ETH remained almost unchanged, suggesting this group maintains a long-term view.
Despite increased selling pressure, ETH's price remains relatively stable, and realized losses in the market are kept low. Technically, ETH is retesting the $3,000 level, coinciding with the 20-day EMA. A successful breakout could lead to the $3,260 region; conversely, a rejection could pull ETH back to the $2,780 support level.
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$XRP Price Prediction: What Will Happen to XRP in 2026?
XRP's price has continued to be under pressure in recent weeks as successive recovery attempts have not been strong enough to reverse the trend. Closing out 2025, the altcoin remains in a weak state, reflecting the prolonged caution of the market. Thin spot demand and defensive sentiment among individual investors make it difficult for XRP to make a clear breakout, although selling pressure has been somewhat contained.
A notable highlight comes from institutional investment. According to CoinShares data, in the week ending December 27th alone, XRP recorded $70 million in inflows, bringing the total inflow for the month to $424 million. For the entire year of 2025, XRP is expected to attract approximately $3.3 billion in investment, significantly outperforming other major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum during the same period. XRP ETFs launched this year have also maintained stable inflows, with no significant net outflows yet, demonstrating long-term confidence from institutions.
However, conversely, the behavior of long-term holders signals caution. On-chain data shows a dominant distribution trend in Q4 2025, reflecting a decline in medium-term confidence. If this state continues into 2026, XRP could face a prolonged accumulation phase or a deeper correction.
Currently, XRP is trading around $1.87, a sharp decline in Q4. To re-establish an uptrend, the price needs to sustainably break above $3. Conversely, losing the $1.79 support zone could open up the risk of a drop to the $1.50 area in the early months of 2026.
XRP's price has continued to be under pressure in recent weeks as successive recovery attempts have not been strong enough to reverse the trend. Closing out 2025, the altcoin remains in a weak state, reflecting the prolonged caution of the market. Thin spot demand and defensive sentiment among individual investors make it difficult for XRP to make a clear breakout, although selling pressure has been somewhat contained.
A notable highlight comes from institutional investment. According to CoinShares data, in the week ending December 27th alone, XRP recorded $70 million in inflows, bringing the total inflow for the month to $424 million. For the entire year of 2025, XRP is expected to attract approximately $3.3 billion in investment, significantly outperforming other major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum during the same period. XRP ETFs launched this year have also maintained stable inflows, with no significant net outflows yet, demonstrating long-term confidence from institutions.
However, conversely, the behavior of long-term holders signals caution. On-chain data shows a dominant distribution trend in Q4 2025, reflecting a decline in medium-term confidence. If this state continues into 2026, XRP could face a prolonged accumulation phase or a deeper correction.
Currently, XRP is trading around $1.87, a sharp decline in Q4. To re-establish an uptrend, the price needs to sustainably break above $3. Conversely, losing the $1.79 support zone could open up the risk of a drop to the $1.50 area in the early months of 2026.
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$pippin Analysis
PIPPIN has made a strong impression on investors over the past month, although its growth momentum has slowed somewhat in recent weeks. Despite the less-than-spectacular price movements, this meme coin still recorded a 16% increase. Although the uptrend is slowing, PIPPIN's performance still outperforms many altcoins in the same segment.
Technical signals still indicate a positive outlook. The Parabolic SAR indicator continues to confirm the uptrend, reinforcing the bullish structure. If the momentum is maintained, PIPPIN could surpass the $0.434 mark, opening up opportunities to conquer key resistance zones at $0.500 and $0.600.
On the other hand, downside risk will emerge if investors tend to take profits. Increased selling pressure could push PIPPIN below the $0.366 support zone. If this trend is confirmed, technical strength will weaken, erasing recent gains and invalidating the bullish outlook.
PIPPIN has made a strong impression on investors over the past month, although its growth momentum has slowed somewhat in recent weeks. Despite the less-than-spectacular price movements, this meme coin still recorded a 16% increase. Although the uptrend is slowing, PIPPIN's performance still outperforms many altcoins in the same segment.
Technical signals still indicate a positive outlook. The Parabolic SAR indicator continues to confirm the uptrend, reinforcing the bullish structure. If the momentum is maintained, PIPPIN could surpass the $0.434 mark, opening up opportunities to conquer key resistance zones at $0.500 and $0.600.
On the other hand, downside risk will emerge if investors tend to take profits. Increased selling pressure could push PIPPIN below the $0.366 support zone. If this trend is confirmed, technical strength will weaken, erasing recent gains and invalidating the bullish outlook.
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Ethereum to lead DeFi capital flows in 2025 as liquidity returns to layer 1.
Ethereum is emerging as the leading destination for net capital inflows in 2025, solidifying its central role in high-value DeFi liquidity. While DeFi activity is expanding aggressively across multiple Layer-2 networks, the majority of liquidity ultimately returns to Ethereum's Layer-1. Throughout 2025, Ethereum recorded over $4.2 billion in net capital inflows, demonstrating its long-term dominance despite periods of short-term capital shifts to other chains.
Arbitrum is the network recording the largest outflow of capital, as liquidity leaves high-risk DeFi environments and returns to Ethereum. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to attract new capital, including $195 million in the most recent week alone. Hyperliquid ranks second in net inflows with approximately $2 billion this year.
Ethereum's advantages stem from its deep liquidity, extensive bridging system, and superior stablecoin ecosystem. The sharp drop in gas fees also improves usability, solidifying Ethereum as the core liquidity and payment layer of the entire ecosystem.
Ethereum is emerging as the leading destination for net capital inflows in 2025, solidifying its central role in high-value DeFi liquidity. While DeFi activity is expanding aggressively across multiple Layer-2 networks, the majority of liquidity ultimately returns to Ethereum's Layer-1. Throughout 2025, Ethereum recorded over $4.2 billion in net capital inflows, demonstrating its long-term dominance despite periods of short-term capital shifts to other chains.
Arbitrum is the network recording the largest outflow of capital, as liquidity leaves high-risk DeFi environments and returns to Ethereum. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to attract new capital, including $195 million in the most recent week alone. Hyperliquid ranks second in net inflows with approximately $2 billion this year.
Ethereum's advantages stem from its deep liquidity, extensive bridging system, and superior stablecoin ecosystem. The sharp drop in gas fees also improves usability, solidifying Ethereum as the core liquidity and payment layer of the entire ecosystem.
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70% of Polymarket traders lose money, with profits accumulating in less than 0.04% of accounts.
On-chain data from DeFi Oasis paints a harsh picture on Polymarket: out of more than 1.7 million addresses that have ever traded, approximately 70% of traders lost money, while only 30% made a profit. Notably, less than 0.04% of addresses accounted for over 70% of the platform's total profits, equivalent to approximately $3.7 billion.
The majority of users only earn very small profits. Traders earning less than $1,000 account for over 24.5% of all addresses but receive less than 1% of the total profit. To earn over $1,000, traders must be in the top 4.9% of the most effective trading addresses, clearly reflecting a "winner-takes-most" structure.
Prediction markets, with their Polymarkets, boomed during the 2024 US election period, as markets predicting political and economic events attracted large sums of money. Profits primarily went to large wallets, quantitative traders, and those with well-structured strategies, while the majority of small retail traders lost money due to chasing news and herd mentality. This trend further reinforces a familiar reality of the crypto market: profits are concentrated in the hands of "smart money."
On-chain data from DeFi Oasis paints a harsh picture on Polymarket: out of more than 1.7 million addresses that have ever traded, approximately 70% of traders lost money, while only 30% made a profit. Notably, less than 0.04% of addresses accounted for over 70% of the platform's total profits, equivalent to approximately $3.7 billion.
The majority of users only earn very small profits. Traders earning less than $1,000 account for over 24.5% of all addresses but receive less than 1% of the total profit. To earn over $1,000, traders must be in the top 4.9% of the most effective trading addresses, clearly reflecting a "winner-takes-most" structure.
Prediction markets, with their Polymarkets, boomed during the 2024 US election period, as markets predicting political and economic events attracted large sums of money. Profits primarily went to large wallets, quantitative traders, and those with well-structured strategies, while the majority of small retail traders lost money due to chasing news and herd mentality. This trend further reinforces a familiar reality of the crypto market: profits are concentrated in the hands of "smart money."
ترجمة
BitMine is increasing its $ETH purchases and expanding staking; is the price poised for a breakout?
BitMine Immersion continues to expand its Ethereum accumulation strategy despite the typical market slowdown during the holiday season. Over the past week, BitMine purchased an additional 44,463 ETH, bringing its total holdings to approximately 4.11 million ETH, equivalent to 3.41% of Ethereum's circulating supply. While the purchase volume is down more than 50% from the previous week, this move still reflects the company's consistent long-term vision.
According to Chairman Tom Lee, the end of the year typically sees weakened liquidity due to tax-optimized sales, especially between December 26th and 30th. BitMine stated that they had anticipated this factor in their operational strategy.
In parallel with accumulation, BitMine has begun staking 408,627 ETH through three partners and plans to expand staking in early 2026 with the MAVAN network. Upon reaching maximum scale, the company estimates staking revenue could reach $374 million per year.
In the market, ETH is still trading below the 20-day EMA, indicating that the short-term trend is not yet clear.
BitMine Immersion continues to expand its Ethereum accumulation strategy despite the typical market slowdown during the holiday season. Over the past week, BitMine purchased an additional 44,463 ETH, bringing its total holdings to approximately 4.11 million ETH, equivalent to 3.41% of Ethereum's circulating supply. While the purchase volume is down more than 50% from the previous week, this move still reflects the company's consistent long-term vision.
According to Chairman Tom Lee, the end of the year typically sees weakened liquidity due to tax-optimized sales, especially between December 26th and 30th. BitMine stated that they had anticipated this factor in their operational strategy.
In parallel with accumulation, BitMine has begun staking 408,627 ETH through three partners and plans to expand staking in early 2026 with the MAVAN network. Upon reaching maximum scale, the company estimates staking revenue could reach $374 million per year.
In the market, ETH is still trading below the 20-day EMA, indicating that the short-term trend is not yet clear.
ترجمة
Bloomberg: $ETH faces a greater risk of falling to $2,000 than rising to $4,000.
ETH is under increasing downward pressure amid persistent poor performance, a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, and unfavorable asset class comparisons. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the market is now more likely to test lower price levels rather than return to previously established highs.
Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently expressed a pessimistic view on Ether on the X platform. He believes that a scenario of ETH falling to the $2,000 region is significantly more likely than a recovery to $4,000, as the prolonged weakness continues amidst the heavy macroeconomic risks weighing on the crypto market.
ETH is under increasing downward pressure amid persistent poor performance, a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, and unfavorable asset class comparisons. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the market is now more likely to test lower price levels rather than return to previously established highs.
Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently expressed a pessimistic view on Ether on the X platform. He believes that a scenario of ETH falling to the $2,000 region is significantly more likely than a recovery to $4,000, as the prolonged weakness continues amidst the heavy macroeconomic risks weighing on the crypto market.
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$SHIB shows signs of recovery as token volume on exchanges drops sharply.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) continues to weaken sharply from its previous peak, with its price falling nearly 70% in a year and its market capitalization dropping below $4.5 billion, placing it out of the top 30. However, some on-chain signals are raising expectations of a short-term recovery.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the amount of SHIB held on centralized exchanges fell to approximately 81.2 trillion tokens on December 28th, the lowest level since April 2021. This development is generally seen as a positive sign, as immediate selling pressure decreases due to shrinking supply on exchanges.
Some analysts suggest that SHIB may have bottomed out, as retail investors continue to sell off their holdings, while "smart" money begins to accumulate for the medium term. However, the outlook remains risky as the token burning mechanism has not yet had a significant impact, the circulating supply remains very large, and activity on Shibarium has not recovered from the security incident in September.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) continues to weaken sharply from its previous peak, with its price falling nearly 70% in a year and its market capitalization dropping below $4.5 billion, placing it out of the top 30. However, some on-chain signals are raising expectations of a short-term recovery.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the amount of SHIB held on centralized exchanges fell to approximately 81.2 trillion tokens on December 28th, the lowest level since April 2021. This development is generally seen as a positive sign, as immediate selling pressure decreases due to shrinking supply on exchanges.
Some analysts suggest that SHIB may have bottomed out, as retail investors continue to sell off their holdings, while "smart" money begins to accumulate for the medium term. However, the outlook remains risky as the token burning mechanism has not yet had a significant impact, the circulating supply remains very large, and activity on Shibarium has not recovered from the security incident in September.
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