AZ crypto hold

I'm saying this might sound crazy, but if I can do it, you can too. However, I went very slowly, taking about 5 years, and in each 6-month cycle, I only placed 20 trades. My win rate met the requirements; sometimes I even completed it before the cycle ended. I know there are day traders here, and they can achieve this much sooner than me. Be careful, because the stop-loss order will get higher and higher, leading to immense psychological pressure. I won't use any technical jargon so everyone can understand. Please read the following and plan accordingly for the future. If you understand it, please comment below so I know how many people understand this. Sooner or later, you will succeed.

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What happened

A major development in the crypto industry: six leading crypto companies, including Kraken, Consensys, and BitGo, are planning IPO (initial public offerings) in 2026, signaling increased institutional ambitions and potential mainstream financial integration.
Why it matters

IPOs from well-known crypto firms represent a significant shift toward traditional financial markets. If these listings occur:

They could increase institutional investor participation in digital assets.
Public market scrutiny might boost transparency and governance standards.
It may legitimize crypto businesses for a broader audience beyond crypto-native traders.
This comes as the market shows mixed price signals — with Bitcoin down and traders warning of possible steep corrections — highlighting ongoing uncertainty.
Context

2025 has been a volatile year for crypto prices, but structural developments like institutional moves and upcoming IPOs could influence sentiment and capital flows heading into 2026, a pivotal year historically tied to new market cycles.

What’s still uncertain

Actual IPO timelines, regulatory approvals, and market reception remain key variables. These announcements signal intent — not guaranteed outcomes — and may shift as macroeconomic conditions evolve.

Several noteworthy news items from the crypto market today highlight the shifting dynamics in DeFi and the fragile market sentiment:
1) Real-World Assets (RWA) DeFi experiences strong growth
Real-world asset protocols (RWA) have exploded and surpassed decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to become the 5th largest DeFi category by total value locked (TVL), reflecting a shift in capital flows from pure crypto assets to real-world products.
2) Net outflows from digital investment products continue
Crypto investment products recorded a net outflow of $446 million last week, indicating that investor sentiment remains cautious after the recent downturn.
3) Whales active in the ETH market
Technical reports show whales have bought a large amount of ETH this week, with long-term selling significantly reduced — a sign of increasing holding sentiment among some large investor groups.
4) Incident Affecting Individual Tokens (FLOW)
The FLOW token dropped more than 10% due to a security breach affecting investor confidence, illustrating that market risks remain.
Why this matters
RWA is one of the fastest-growing segments of DeFi, attracting new capital and expanding the DeFi landscape beyond pure digital assets.
Net outflows and weak sentiment could impact price volatility and liquidity in the short term.
ETH whale activity and the token security incident show that the market remains polarized between large investors and technical risks.

$ETH

Not dramatic. Not calm. Just compressed.

After recent narrative shifts, ETH hasn’t resolved the reaction yet. Price keeps revisiting the same zone, rejecting momentum in both directions. That’s where decisions quietly form.

Most traders mistake this for “nothing happening.” But compression is still information.

Doing nothing here isn’t neutral.

It’s a choice to let the market decide for you.
$ETH

The cryptocurrency market has moved lower in recent sessions, erasing much of the gains accumulated earlier in the year. After reaching new highs during the first half of 2025, major digital assets have seen broad-based declines, with total market capitalization falling as risk appetite softened across global markets. The pullback comes amid tighter financial conditions and fading momentum following earlier optimism around regulatory clarity and institutional participation.

Why it matters — Crypto markets remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and liquidity trends. When broader risk assets face pressure, digital assets often experience amplified moves due to their volatility and speculative positioning. Historically, similar late-cycle pullbacks have led to increased caution from institutional investors and reduced leverage across the market. This environment introduces uncertainty around short-term confidence, even as longer-term structural narratives remain under evaluation.

The current situation underscores the importance of monitoring macro signals and capital flows, rather than short-term price movements, as market participants reassess risk exposure.

Today, the cryptocurrency market saw Bitcoin rise above $90,000, along with Ethereum recovering above $3,000, reflecting a significant increase in total crypto market capitalization. Data shows that BTC is experiencing broader bullish momentum across multiple digital asset classes, coinciding with the breakout of major altcoins.
At the same time, whales (wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) continue to be the main buying force around this price level, indicating that large capital flows remain in the market amidst increased volatility.
Meanwhile, altcoins like Flow (FLOW) experienced sharp declines following negative events related to hacking and affected market confidence—illustrating a clear divergence between BTC/ETH and some smaller tokens.
Additionally, there are reports that Japan's largest Bitcoin holding company has begun issuing dividend-paying shares, a new step in how large institutions approach crypto asset ownership.
Finally, the crypto IPO market is also predicted to be more vibrant in 2026 as companies that raised large amounts of capital in 2025 prepare to expand their operations.
Why is this important?
The recovery to $90K shows improving investor sentiment after weeks of volatility, with large capital inflows and momentum from BTC driving the broader market. At the same time, the divergence between asset classes reflects the concentrated risk in smaller projects, while BTC/ETH continues to attract greater liquidity.

$BTC $ETH $BNB

They act when emotions feel manageable.

Markets exploit this by offering comfort at the wrong time and discomfort when clarity is actually forming. Familiar patterns feel safe, even when conditions have changed underneath them.

The danger isn’t fear—it’s relief. Relief lowers questioning, shortens patience, and reduces preparation.

Experienced traders still fall into this trap because the brain prefers emotional stability over analytical accuracy. Understanding this doesn’t remove the bias, but it helps you notice when “feels right” isn’t the same as “is understood.”

$BTC $ETH $BNB

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, said investors are becoming more selective, prioritizing real-world utility over narrative-driven hype in the crypto market. In recent remarks, Novogratz noted that several long-established tokens are facing questions about relevance as capital increasingly favors projects with clear use cases, sustainable revenue, and institutional appeal.

Why it matters

Novogratz’s comments reflect a broader shift in crypto market psychology. As macro conditions remain tight and speculative liquidity is reduced, investors appear less willing to fund projects based solely on brand recognition or historical popularity. This environment favors assets perceived as infrastructure, settlement layers, or financial primitives rather than purely speculative tokens.

Broader perspective

Historically, similar periods of capital discipline — such as after the 2018 and 2022 drawdowns — led to consolidation within the crypto ecosystem. Projects unable to demonstrate tangible adoption or economic value often underperformed, while capital concentrated into fewer, higher-conviction themes.

The current shift does not signal immediate market direction but highlights growing scrutiny around long-term fundamentals and sustainability in crypto investing.

It comes from respecting time.

Most losses don’t happen because a rule was unknown, but because it was abandoned during uncertainty. Quiet markets test patience. Fast markets test restraint.

Discipline is choosing to behave the same way when nothing happens as when everything happens.

Activity feels productive.

Stillness feels uncomfortable.

But markets don’t reward motion — they reward alignment with process. The traders who last aren’t the busiest ones. They’re the ones who can sit through uncertainty without needing to interfere.

Time reveals edges.

Noise hides them.

They come from emotional timing.

People feel calm when nothing is happening, and anxious when decisions are required. Markets exploit that. Compression feels boring, so it’s ignored. Movement feels urgent, so it’s chased.

By the time emotion shows up, the decision already passed.

This creates a loop: hesitation early, reaction late. Over and over again.

Strong traders aren’t emotionless.

They’re simply aware of when emotion enters the process — and when it’s already too late to trust it.

The market doesn’t punish ignorance.

It punishes delayed awareness.

Crypto Markets Slide Amid Year-End Thin Liquidity
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a slight decline at the end of the week, with global capitalization lower due to thin liquidity during the year-end holiday. Bitcoin and major altcoins recorded slight declines compared to yesterday, reflecting subdued trading sentiment and low volatility at the end of the year.
Retail Interest Rises Slowly But Still Weak
Global retail investor interest — according to online search data — is at its lowest level in a year, indicating a cooling of capital flows from the retail investor segment.
Weekly Wrap: Bitcoin Sideways, ETH Range-Bound
The week's summary shows Bitcoin mostly moving sideways, while Ethereum fluctuated within a narrow range, reflecting the market entering a period of clear lack of momentum ahead of the New Year.
Clarity Act Buzz Affects XRP Positioning
On the altcoin news front, attention is focused on the Clarity Act, which is set to mark up in early January, being cited as a key factor shaping the future of XRP and other layer-1 tokens.
Novogratz Warns on Utility vs. Hype
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz warns that some tokens like XRP and Cardano could lose “relevance” if they cannot demonstrate practical application — this is a perspective on long-term structural risk for altcoins.

A record-setting $27 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry is occurring on December 26-27, 2025 — one of the largest in crypto history. This quarterly settlement event on derivatives platforms may remove hedging pressures and reset market positioning, especially for Bitcoin within its current trading range.

Simultaneously, a technical governance debate in the Bitcoin community around the BIP “The Cat” proposal is gaining traction. The proposal aims to freeze certain UTXOs (small output transactions often tied to inscriptions/NFTs) to reduce blockchain bloat. Critics warn it could set a precedent for altering long-held principles of ownership and immutability in Bitcoin.

Market prices remain flat to slightly down amid subdued holiday liquidity, with major assets trading in a narrow range. Broad market capitalization sits around ~$3.0 trillion as traders await catalyst events.

In broader market structure developments, 2025 saw derivatives volumes reach record levels globally, underlining growing institutional gravity in crypto. Binance

Why this matters:

• Options expiries can trigger short-term volatility as positions roll off.

• Protocol governance debates reflect deeper tensions between scalability and foundational principles.

• Institutional participation reinforces crypto’s evolving market maturity.

No trading advice; this is informational context.

Discipline isn’t about doing more. It’s about resisting the need to respond.

Most damage comes from activity during uncertainty—adjusting, reacting, interfering with a process that hasn’t failed. Intelligence doesn’t prevent this. Experience doesn’t either. Only structure does.

Rules exist to absorb pressure when clarity is absent. They reduce decision-making when decisions are most costly. Over time, consistency isn’t built by avoiding losses, but by avoiding unnecessary action.

In quiet periods, restraint feels unproductive. In hindsight, it’s often the reason survival was possible.

Most traders act when emotions feel safe, not when conditions are best.

Comfort comes from clarity: clean narratives, obvious movement, social confirmation. By the time those appear, risk is often already mispriced. The mind interprets familiarity as safety, even when uncertainty has quietly increased.

Discomfort, on the other hand, creates hesitation. That hesitation is usually rational, but it feels wrong. Markets exploit this gap by rewarding patience before emotion catches up, and punishing action taken for relief.

Understanding this doesn’t remove emotion. It simply helps you recognize when comfort—not logic—is driving behavior.

On December 26, 2025, the cryptocurrency market faces what’s being described as the largest Bitcoin options expiration in history, with roughly $23+ billion worth of BTC options contracts expiring today. This event stands out because such expiries can materially affect price behavior and market dynamics, especially in a year-end period characterized by thin liquidity and cautious positioning.

Why this matters

Options expiries represent a point where significant open positions are resolved. Large expiries often lead to increased volatility and can compress trading ranges before the event as market makers hedge exposure. After the expiry, price movement can become less constrained, potentially leading to wider swings in either direction once the immediate event passes.

In the current environment, Bitcoin has been consolidating in a tight range amid subdued holiday trading and thin liquidity, making today’s expiry a focus for institutional and dealer activity.

Context & market climate

Bitcoin and broader crypto assets have seen muted action recently, with range-bound trading dominating into year-end. The options expiry could act as a catalyst for post-holiday volatility, even if shorter-term moves remain choppy.

Closing

This event does not predict direction but highlights a structural moment in the market where positioning and technical behavior may shift. Awareness of its timing and scale helps contextualize near-term price action and risk perceptions.

Inconsistency does.

Rules work only when they are followed during uncertainty — not after clarity appears. Most people respect their process only when it feels comfortable.

Activity creates the illusion of control. Patience feels passive, but it filters out noise that drains capital and focus.

The market doesn’t reward intelligence on busy days. It rewards restraint over long stretches of unclear ones.

Staying still when nothing is confirmed isn’t wasted time.

It’s part of the system working as intended.

Most trading mistakes don’t come from bad analysis.

They come from timing emotions.

Traders feel calm when nothing is happening, then rush when movement finally appears. By the time action feels “safe,” risk is already higher.

The market quietly rewards those who can stay engaged during boredom, not excitement. That’s where decisions are cheapest.

Emotion flips the process. It makes patience feel like inaction and impulsiveness feel like clarity.

The trap isn’t fear or greed alone.

It’s reacting only when the market has already forced your hand.