ETH getting back above $2,500 is interesting.
But I think the more important part is happening away from the price chart.
The amount of ETH sitting on exchanges has been falling for a long time.
Since May 2025 exchange balances reportedly dropped from around 14.8 million ETH to roughly 25.7 million ETH.
The numbers in the data are worth checking carefully because the direction matters more than the exact figure.
Less ETH immediately available on exchanges means there can be less liquid supply when demand suddenly increases.
Staking is adding another layer to this.
Around 29.8% of ETH was staked in September 2025.
By September 18 2026 that figure had reached roughly 35.56%.
That is a meaningful shift.
More ETH being staked means a larger portion of supply is not actively moving through spot markets.
Then there are the ETFs.
US spot ETH ETFs have reportedly accumulated around $13.25 billion in total inflows with assets around $16.7 billion.
That creates another destination for ETH outside normal exchange liquidity.
But this is where I would avoid the easy conclusion that lower supply automatically means higher price.
It does not.
Supply becomes important only when there is enough demand to interact with it.
And ETF flows have not been consistent every day.
Some sessions have seen large outflows while another recent day recorded around $143.8 million in inflows.
So the real test for ETH is still demand.
If buyers keep absorbing available supply while more ETH moves into staking and long term holdings then price can become more sensitive to relatively small changes in spot demand.
But if buyers disappear then thin liquidity can work in the opposite direction.
That is the part I would watch around $2,500.
Holding above it would show that the market can accept higher prices despite the recent volatility.
Losing it would tell me that tighter supply alone is not enough.
For now ETH has a stronger supply structure than the price chart alone suggests.
The next move depends on whether demand can actually take advantage of it.