Everyone's freaking out about US debt spiraling out of control. I'm not.
Look, people have been screaming about a debt crisis for literally over a century. Still hasn't happened. Why?
Because the fundamentals haven't changed:
• Largest economy in the world
• Dollar is still the reserve currency
• Deepest capital markets
• No real alternative to Treasuries at scale
Sure, the spending is wild. Sure, the debt-to-GDP ratio looks scary on a chart. But there's no substitute. Where else is global capital going to park trillions safely? Euro bonds? Chinese debt? Come on.
The doomsayers have been wrong for decades because they underestimate how much structural advantage the US has. We'll keep spending, politicians will keep complaining, and markets will keep buying Treasuries.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this time is different. But I've learned that betting against the US financial system's ability to keep the show running is a losing trade.
The crisis everyone's waiting for might never come. Or it'll come from somewhere nobody's watching.
Look, people have been screaming about a debt crisis for literally over a century. Still hasn't happened. Why?
Because the fundamentals haven't changed:
• Largest economy in the world
• Dollar is still the reserve currency
• Deepest capital markets
• No real alternative to Treasuries at scale
Sure, the spending is wild. Sure, the debt-to-GDP ratio looks scary on a chart. But there's no substitute. Where else is global capital going to park trillions safely? Euro bonds? Chinese debt? Come on.
The doomsayers have been wrong for decades because they underestimate how much structural advantage the US has. We'll keep spending, politicians will keep complaining, and markets will keep buying Treasuries.
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this time is different. But I've learned that betting against the US financial system's ability to keep the show running is a losing trade.
The crisis everyone's waiting for might never come. Or it'll come from somewhere nobody's watching.