Bitcoin is trying to recover.
Short term ETF flows have turned supportive.
Stablecoin supply has not.
BTC is trading around $64,000 at the time of writing.
At the time of writing, Farside shows the following US spot Bitcoin ETF flows:
→ July 13: -$424.7M
→ July 14: +$181.1M
→ July 15: +$107.7M
→ July 16: +$79.1M
→ July 17: +$132.3M
After the sharp outflow on July 13, four consecutive inflow sessions totaled $500.2M.
Across the full five session window, however, net inflows amount to only $75.5M.
I’d label the ETF rebound as encouraging, but it still needs follow through.
DefiLlama shows a different side of the liquidity picture:
→ Total stablecoin supply: $309.99B
→ 7 day change: -$1.572B (-0.50%)
→ 30 day change: -1.40%
Aggregate stablecoin supply is therefore contracting across both the weekly and monthly windows.
That metric is not a perfect measure of liquidity.
Issuance and redemptions can also reflect treasury management, chain migrations and issuer operations.
Even so, stablecoin supply remains a useful proxy for deployable onchain capital.
That leaves us with divergent signals:
→ US spot ETF demand has improved
→ Aggregate stablecoin supply is still shrinking
These signals do not contradict each other.
They measure different channels of capital and different parts of the market.
My take:
Bitcoin’s recovery now has short term support from US spot ETF flows, but broader liquidity confirmation remains incomplete.
The next signal I’d watch is whether ETF inflows persist while stablecoin supply stabilizes or begins expanding again.
Short term ETF flows have turned supportive.
Stablecoin supply has not.
BTC is trading around $64,000 at the time of writing.
At the time of writing, Farside shows the following US spot Bitcoin ETF flows:
→ July 13: -$424.7M
→ July 14: +$181.1M
→ July 15: +$107.7M
→ July 16: +$79.1M
→ July 17: +$132.3M
After the sharp outflow on July 13, four consecutive inflow sessions totaled $500.2M.
Across the full five session window, however, net inflows amount to only $75.5M.
I’d label the ETF rebound as encouraging, but it still needs follow through.
DefiLlama shows a different side of the liquidity picture:
→ Total stablecoin supply: $309.99B
→ 7 day change: -$1.572B (-0.50%)
→ 30 day change: -1.40%
Aggregate stablecoin supply is therefore contracting across both the weekly and monthly windows.
That metric is not a perfect measure of liquidity.
Issuance and redemptions can also reflect treasury management, chain migrations and issuer operations.
Even so, stablecoin supply remains a useful proxy for deployable onchain capital.
That leaves us with divergent signals:
→ US spot ETF demand has improved
→ Aggregate stablecoin supply is still shrinking
These signals do not contradict each other.
They measure different channels of capital and different parts of the market.
My take:
Bitcoin’s recovery now has short term support from US spot ETF flows, but broader liquidity confirmation remains incomplete.
The next signal I’d watch is whether ETF inflows persist while stablecoin supply stabilizes or begins expanding again.