LEGAL ODDS ≠ MARKET MOVES ⚖️📈
Even if courts overturn tariffs, markets don’t react to verdicts alone. They respond to timing, uncertainty, and transition risk. A 72% probability isn’t a decision — uncertainty drives volatility.
What really moves markets:
How quickly a ruling is implemented
Whether policy is replaced or reversed cleanly
Effects on inflation expectations and trade flows
Why this isn’t automatically “bad”:
Tariff removal can ease costs
But it can also disrupt protected sectors, supply chains, and fiscal plans
Result: sector rotation, not one-way moves
For risk assets & crypto:
Markets reprice when clarity arrives. Until then, positioning stays cautious, and volatility remains high.
Key takeaway:
Markets fear uncertainty more than outcomes. Clarity — not court odds — is the real catalyst.
