Ethereum price is trading down 4% on Saturday May 16, as investors book profits in anticipation of lower market volume for the weekend.
While the leading indicators reflect a dominant bearish sentiment, the main trading data reflects strong buying pressure from whale traders on Binance.
Can the wheels sustain above $2,400 or will they accelerate the active retail capitulation towards $2,200?
Ethereum (ETH) drops below $2,500 for the first time in 5 days.
Ethereum (ETH) experienced a major decline after the US markets closed on Friday, underscoring the role of US-based and global institutional players in the ongoing crypto market rally.
At press time, the price of ethereum has fallen below $2,500, down 4% to trade as low as $2,457, according to Quengeco data.
With 35% of ETH's position on the 14-day time frame, recent reports suggest that the influx of large investors is a significant bullish process for Ethereum.
With corporate markets now closed for the weekend, Ethereum's 4% decline on Saturday can be attributed to short-term trader investors reducing their positions in anticipation of weaker market volume over the weekend.
Binance Top Traders May Save Ethereum Rally
Despite Ethereum's 4% drop below $2,500, trading data from Binance shows a compelling case for potential near-term support.
Specifically, the Coinglass chart below shows that the Binance
$ETH /USDT top trader long/short ratio currently stands at 2.6697, indicating that advanced accounts are heavily skewed toward long positions.
What's more, the top trader long/short ratio by account is high at 3.04, meaning more than 75% of Binance's top accounts are expecting a rebound.
This number reflects the confidence of institutional level traders that Ethereum can still hold above $2,400. Strong top trader bullish bias is also contrary to broader derivatives market signals.
While total
$ETH derivatives volume fell 12.78% to $72.27 billion, and options volume fell 43.24% to $504.28 million, options open interest held steady, rising 0.35% to $7.25 billion. This suggests strategic positioning rather than mass exits.
Meanwhile, liquidation data shows an aggressive shakeout of long positions, with $81 million wiped out in the past 24 hours, including $16.9 million in just the past 12 hours.
Despite this, short liquidation remains minimal at $12 million, indicating a lack of conviction on the continued downside.
If Binance's top traders maintain their leveraged long positions, Ethereum could bounce back to the $2,450-$2,480 range.
A decisive push above the psychological $2,500 level would likely invalidate the short-term bearish momentum, especially if volume surprises to the upside over the weekend.
However, as sentiment worsens, ETH price risks moving towards the $2,200 support level, which was last seen during the April consolidation.
Ethereum Price Prediction Today:
$ETH Eyes Early Rebound to $2,600 if VWAP Holds Defense
Ethereum price is trying to consolidate near $2,470 after three consecutive days of declines of over 6%.
The sell-off, although aggressive, appears to be technically under control, with the current daily candle holding the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) just above $2,485, a critical level that often signals re-entry pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which was at a high of 70.85, is now cooling to 66.78, signaling a reduction in overbought conditions and opening up space for fresh upward momentum.
The MACD histogram, although contracting, remains in positive territory, and the signal line crossover has confirmed bearishness, maintaining bullish prospects.
Moreover, the Donchin channel bands are decreasing, indicating price compression and suggesting that a near-term breakout or breakdown is imminent.
A sustained break below $2,450 could accelerate declines towards orange mid-band support near $2,235, while a close above $2,500 would likely confirm VWAP support and rekindle bullish momentum towards the $2,738 upper band target.
Momentum remains cautiously bullish as long as ETH defends VWAP. A failure to hold would threaten a test of the $2,235 zone, while the upside could resume towards $2,700 after short-term resistance is reclaimed.
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