MR DEALS

In Depth Technical and Psychological Analysis

Today I will address the elephant in the room that no one talks about, which is the real reason why we are in a bear market and why we will continue in a bear market until end of next year. Many of the so called analysts who say we are in a bear market, when asked why are we in a bear market can’t answer because they don’t understand whats truly happening.

The reason why we are in a bear market and why we will continue in a bear market until end of next year its because Bank of Japan is set to start raising interest rates in their next policy meeting and plans to continue increasing them until September 2026. Japan has always been the biggest liquidity provider in the world because for decades its interest rates have been close to zero, meaning investors around the world could borrow Japanese yen almost for free and convert that money into US dollars to invest in stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin. This is what we call the Japanese carry trade. The problem begins now because the Bank of Japan is finally tightening its monetary policy. The difference between BOJ and Fed interest rates is called the spread. As long as the spread is wide, meaning Japan rates are much lower than America, investors borrow yen and sell it for dollars to invest in bonds, stocks and Bitcoin. But once Japan raises rates, the spread gets smaller, borrowing becomes more expensive, and the yen gets stronger against the dollar. When that happens, investors who borrowed yen to sell into US dollars are forced to sell the stocks, bonds and Bitcoin bought in order to sell their dollars and buy back yen so that they can repay their loans before the debt becomes too expensive. This process removes liquidity from the market and pushes prices lower. They are not selling because they want to, they are selling because they have to.

If you follow me for a while now you know that recently I flipped bearish on Bitcoin calling for much lower prices as well as on the stock market, more specifically on AI stocks. Regarding stocks, I highly doubt market will allow higher prices from my current short entry since we fully shorted the top. Still, I am prepared to short more in case market allows us to see a false breakout above current ATH levels. Regarding Bitcoin I have HUGE orders to short bitcoin in the 98-104k region where I am expecting to be formed a local top. I give you now the full picture for bear market and I tell you next target is the sweep of the 74k April lows. Yet this is only the first target! I will continue to hold shorts until the 54-60k region as this is the level where I expect to see a huge capitulation event that will mark the cycle bottom. Likely that capitulation event will come with WinterMute selling their spot assets to finally repay investors. I know many of you wanted me to be bullish and call for higher prices, yet for me the bull is over since we closed weekly candle bellow the EMA50. Much lower targets are guaranteed and those who still didnt sold their spot assets, remember my words now to sell and short the 98-104k region.

Bank of Japan is raising rates, the spread is closing, investors are unwinding the carry trade, and liquidity is being drained out of the system. And as if this is not bearish enough, FED is seeing an overstated inflation alongside a weakening job market and instead of easing the economy they proceed to be hawkish in that what is only dovish. It's more than clear to me that we are heading into a recession in 2026. Stock market shorts are triggered. I will add more if make allows us to see prices above my current entry point. Bitcoin HUGE short orders are set in the 98-104k region. Ready to short the retest of the cycle top region of full force down until cycle bottom.

Thank you for your understanding to this matter and a nice weekend to you!
$BTC
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