Lavinia Legare V4qu

比特幣在2025年11月中旬進入了一個波動的階段，標誌著急劇的向下修正和投資者之間日益增長的不確定性。在10月初觸及125,000美元以上的歷史高點後，比特幣幾乎暴跌了30%，首次跌破90,000美元，這一舉動擾動了市場情緒。
路透社
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市場觀察
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宏觀背景及流動性風險
比特幣的拋售是受到宏觀經濟逆風的驅動。最近的美國政府關閉已經從市場中抽走了關鍵的流動性，給像加密貨幣這樣的風險資產施加了壓力。
AInvest
同時，投資者對潛在的聯邦儲備利率削減的時間和規模變得越來越謹慎，加劇了不確定性。
路透社
機構流動和ETF動態
鏈上和基金流動數據提供了一些混合信號。機構的興趣仍然存在：大型參與者繼續使用ETF來獲得比特幣的曝光。
AInvest
但流入並不穩定 — 最近的ETF流出突顯了這一需求對宏觀風險的敏感性。
AInvest
長期持有者的行為也在變化：數據顯示這些傳統上更堅定的投資者的拋售顯著上升，這可能表明信心動搖。
市場觀察
季節性模式正在辯論中
歷史上，11月通常是比特幣的強勁月份。一些分析師指出，如果季節性持續，比特幣可能會出現反彈 — 過去的11月平均增長40%。
COINOTAG
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因此，儘管季節性對比特幣有利，但這並不是一個保證的加速器。
技術觀點
從技術角度看，比特幣在下跌期間失去了幾個關鍵支撐區域。如果情緒未能改善，存在再訪更低水平的風險 — 一些分析師提到75,000美元可能是如果下跌持續的潛在下一個支撐。
路透社#BTC90kBreakingPoint #BitcoinDunyamiz $BTC

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#$BTC recently dropped below $90,000, a significant pullback from its October peak above $126,000. Reuters+2MarketWatch
The reversal reflects growing investor caution, especially around macro concerns like interest rate uncertainty. Reuters+1
Some of the decline has been linked to selling by long-term holders, which is more worrying than usual outflows. MarketWatch
Key support today sits roughly in the $104K–$106K zone according to many analysts. BTCC
On the upside, resistance is seen in the $120K–$125K range. aiTrendview+1
Technical models point to a potential “double bottom” forming near $106K–$108K, but a clear breakout would require closing above the $119K–$120K zone. aiTrendview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing near-oversold conditions, suggesting there could be room for a bounce. trakinvest.ai -
Exchange reserves are continuing to decline — more BTC is being taken off exchanges, which historically signals accumulation. trakinvest.ai -+1
Meanwhile, institutional adoption remains strong: ETF flows and large custodian holdings are contributing to a more durable demand base. Samara Chronicle+2BTCC+2
On the mining side, efficiency is improving. Newer-generation miners are reducing costs, which may help sustain miner profitability. Foreign Affairs Forum
A dovish outlook for the U.S. Federal Reserve (possible rate cuts) could be a tailwind for Bitcoin, pushing it higher if liquidity improves. aiTrendview+1

But sentiment is fragile: fear is rising among investors. According to one analyst, Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle consolidation, not necessarily in a new bull run yet. aiTrendview
ScenarioWhat Might HappenBullishIf BTC holds above $106K and breaks >$120K, we could see a push back toward $125K+ (or more, depending on ETF inflows and macro liquidity). Coin Edition+1BearishFailure to hold $104K–$106K support could trigger further decline, possibly toward $90K or even lower if long-term holders keep selling. Reuters+1
#BTC90kBreakingPoint #TrumpBitcoinEmpire

$BTC is trading around US $104,777.
Volatility is waking up: its implied volatility index (BVIV) has broken past a long‐held trendline, suggesting price swings may become larger.
On the technical side, it has held key support near US $102,000 but faces resistance in the US $105,000–108,000 range. A breakout above this could open more upside, while failure to hold could drag it lower
Institutional flows and accumulation are still occurring, but market sentiment remains cautious amid macro and regulatory uncertainty
A sustained move above US $105,000–108,000 may signal the next leg up.
If support near US $102,000 breaks, a deeper pullback is possibleIf support near US $102,000 breaks, a deeper pullback is possible.
With volatility rising, traders should be prepared for sharper moves in both directions.
Key catalysts: regulatory clarity, institutional activity, macroeconomic moves (interest rates, inflation), and on‐chain indicators (holder behaviour, flows).

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