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Stop loss: $150 (≈ −8.7% from $164). Tight stop option: $155 (−5.7%) if you want smaller drawdown.
Confidence: Moderate — 60% for the $180 target (because SOL shows support and short-term bullish setups), ~45% for the $200 breakout target (requires follow-through).
Why $SOL
1. Price & liquidity — SOL is a major L1 with deep liquidity (top crypto market cap, heavy volume). Current price/market data corroborates liquidity to enter/exit within a month.
2. Technical context — recent bounce from the $150 support zone and a break above short-term consolidation suggests a near-term mean reversion / bounce to the next resistance band near $175–$180. Several short-term TA writeups flagged the $150 support and a likely move to $175.
3. Fundamental tailwinds — network upgrades and institutional stories (treasury accumulation, institutional interest) create a plausible catalyst that could amplify a technical breakout within a month.
Technical analysis
1) Trend & structure
Daily trend recently pulled back from earlier highs; intermediate trend shows a correction that found support around $150. Bounce off that level suggests buyers defended it — that support becomes our key invalidation point.
2) Support & resistance
Immediate support: $150 (strong), then $140 (secondary).