With no payrolls or inflation prints on the calendar until Washington reopens, the market is running on positioning and flows rather than fresh catalysts.$BTC
Bitcoin is trading around $122,000 after reaching a record high of $126,200, with expectations of potentially hitting $140,000 later this month.
Economist Timothy Peterson estimates a 50% probability of bitcoin finishing October above $140,000, based on decade-long data simulations.
Despite recent volatility, institutional demand and reduced exchange balances are supporting bitcoin's price, amid macroeconomic uncertainties and upcoming market data releases.
Bitcoin is holding around $122,000 in Wednesday’s Asian hours after setting a record high at $126,200 earlier this week, with some market watchers still expecting a surge to a record $140,000 later this month.
BTC is up nearly 10% since the start of October, which has historically been one of the most bullish periods for all financial assets. The move has been driven by record ETF inflows and exodus of coins from centralized exchanges.
Exchange balances have dropped to a six-year low of 2.83 million BTC, with 170,000 coins withdrawn in the past month. That mix of steady institutional buying and shrinking supply has kept pullbacks shallow. The U.S-listed spot ETFs have added more than $60 billion since approvals in January 2204, including $3.2 billion last week, the second-largest weekly intake on record.
Trading desks note that the path of least resistance is still higher as “Uptober” plays out. Besides, the outlook for S&P 500 remains constructive, supporting the bull case in BTC.
“Options markets are pricing in a feral 5% chance for another 10% rally in the SPX into year-end, and it’s increasingly difficult to find a negative catalyst to counteract that view,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, said in a Telegram message. “We saw little short liquidation on the recent gap up, suggesting participants are underweight with minimal risk exposures."