1. Sharp rally: BTC spikes aggressively, often parabolic.
2. Topping/consolidation range: Price stalls, forming wicks, lower highs, and a base of accumulation.
3. Pullback → Launch: BTC drops to a strong historical support (often 30–50% of the previous top), absorbs selling pressure, and then launches the next bull cycle.
Every major cycle since 2013 has followed this structure.
2️⃣ Key Levels Right Now
Support zone near $40K: This is the historical “restart zone.” Previous cycles show BTC pulled back to a similar area before launching the next leg.
All-time resistance near $150K: This is the projected breakout target if BTC repeats its previous cycle gains.
3️⃣ The Big Question
Will BTC retest $40K first, consolidating at historical support before the next big run?
Or, in a less likely but possible scenario, does BTC skip straight to $150K, powered by massive liquidity and institutional demand?
Historical odds: BTC usually touches the support first, consolidates, then rallies to a new all-time high. 4️⃣ What This Means for Traders
Short-term: Watch $40K as a key zone for accumulation and risk management. Medium-term: If BTC holds $40K, the next leg could target $150K over the next bull cycle. Risk management: Any break below $40K would delay the next bull leg and require reassessing the setup.