Over the past week, I observed Bitcoin forming a potential head-and-shoulders structure on the weekly chart — a classic sign of medium-term weakness. Three days ago, after reviewing macro data, liquidity trends, and market sentiment, I leaned toward a scenario where the crypto market may stage a short-term recovery by year-end, supported by looser monetary expectations and the return of stablecoin inflows.
However, the recent 3% surge in BTC suggests the market is moving faster than its fundamentals. Momentum remains fragile, while speculative positioning has risen sharply. This is not confirmation of strength — it is a warning signal that optimism may have arrived too early.
As a market observer, I do not see this as a validation of a new bullish phase but rather a call for discipline and prudence. In the desert of volatility, an “oasis” may not always be salvation — it can be the final mirage before the storm.
For that reason, I’ve chosen to cash out part of the gains, repositioning toward a defensive stance — not out of pessimism, but out of respect for uncertainty and market cycles.
Author’s Caution: A recovery may come, but when it arrives too quickly, it often reflects a thirst for liquidity rather than true demand.
Investment Advice: In times of rapid optimism, protect capital first and let conviction grow only with confirmation.