America’s economic community is clear about who should succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. Most academics and researchers want Chris Waller. Yet the political reality in Washington seems to favor former White House advisor Kevin Hassett.

Economists Want Waller, Politics Favor Hassett

According to a survey conducted by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business with 44 economists, 82% said Waller should be the next Fed chair, but only 20% believed he would actually get the job. By contrast, 39% named Kevin Hassett as the most likely choice.

The reason comes down to President Donald Trump. In his second term, he has intensified pressure on the central bank, openly demanding that benchmark rates be slashed to 1%. He argues this would boost growth and cut government borrowing costs. Meanwhile, he has not held back from personal attacks, calling Powell a “moron” and a “numbskull” for refusing to lower rates faster.

Divided Views Inside the Fed

The Fed this month cut rates for the first time since December, reducing the benchmark range by a quarter point to 4–4.25%. That wasn’t enough for Trump’s new board nominee, Stephen Miran, who dissented and pushed for a half-point cut, plus five more quarter-point reductions before year-end.

Chris Waller, seen as more cautious, declined to support Miran’s aggressive stance. While Waller has dissented in the past, this time he resisted calls for deeper cuts. That independence, some argue, makes him less likely to rise to the top. “Waller looks like a central banker, not someone prostrating himself for the chair. And that’s precisely why he won’t get it,” said Robert Barbera of Johns Hopkins University.

Interestingly, none of the surveyed economists supported Miran as their preferred candidate, yet 20% still saw him as a possible Trump pick.

Political Maneuvering and Early Interviews

Tensions escalated when Trump tried to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, accusing her of mortgage fraud. Cook denied the allegations and is challenging the move in court, a case that could set limits on presidential power over monetary policy.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has begun the first round of informal interviews. Last week, he met with Marc Sumerlin, one of 11 names on the longlist. The round is expected to conclude within two weeks.

The Chicago-Booth poll narrowed the likely field to five: Waller, Hassett, Bessent, Warsh, and Miran. Trump has said loyalty and readiness to slash rates are what matter most to him.

Economic Challenges: Tariffs, Labor Market, and Stagflation Risks

Whoever takes over the Fed will face a challenging environment. New tariffs are pressuring the economy, the labor market is cooling, and many economists warn that stagflation risks are rising.

Most FOMC members expect Trump’s tariffs to create only temporary price spikes for select goods. They would rather tolerate slower job growth than risk runaway inflation. Still, concerns about stagflation are mounting.

“The dual mandate puts the Fed in a bind. But if recent history is any guide — at least in the last couple of decades — the FOMC tends to prioritize employment over inflation,” said Nikolai Roussanov of the Wharton School.

Conclusion

While economists overwhelmingly prefer Waller, politics appear to favor Hassett. Whoever takes the chair in 2026 will shape not just U.S. monetary policy but also the nation’s ability to withstand global economic pressures in uncertain times.

#FederalReserve , #USPolitics , #DonaldTrump , #economy , #Fed

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