QCP Capital reports a continued decline in Bitcoin (BTC) short-term volatility, with the cryptocurrency maintaining a narrow range near $105,000. The firm noted that 1-month implied volatility has dropped below 40%, indicating reduced market expectations for significant near-term price movements.
The subdued price action comes amid broader market caution. The S&P 500 neared the 6,000-point level following a surprise rise in U.S. job vacancies, which bolstered risk sentiment ahead of this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. QCP notes that stable employment data would likely reinforce the Federal Reserve's stance that the labor market remains resilient, strengthening the expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged.
In derivatives markets, skewness has normalized and positioning remains light, suggesting an absence of strong directional conviction. Volatility has also flattened across the curve since May, prompting select investors to explore long volatility trades. A $130,000 BTC call option expiring in September recently traded at 47% implied volatility, signaling partial interest in upside exposure ahead of Q3.
Outside the U.S., Chinese 10-year and 30-year bond futures volumes have fallen to their lowest levels since February, further reflecting a global risk-off and wait-and-see sentiment. Investors are closely watching upcoming Xi-Trump talks for potential policy signals.
QCP concluded that, without a clear macroeconomic or geopolitical catalyst, Bitcoin is unlikely to break significantly out of its current trading range in the near term.
