nvidia

2025年11月19日彭博社电，英伟达周三收盘后将发布财报📊，华尔街可摸清数十亿美元AI支出去向，低迷股市的反应仍是未知数。
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🚀 业绩预期 【增长超50%？】
Kingsview首席投资官称这是“英伟达走势即市场走势”的财报。分析师预计第三财季净利润和营收暴涨超50%，因微软等四大巨头占其销售额超40%，未来12个月AI支出预计增长34%达440亿美元💰。

⚠️ 潜在风险 【预期太高难承接】
若OpenAI等缩减AI投入，亮眼数据可能失效。JonesTrading策略师直言，AI玩家抬高新预期后需持续满足市场胃口，对上市公司是“危险游戏”😱，但巨头持续投入则英伟达仍能受益。

📈 市场地位 【英伟达=风向标】
英伟达是标普500权重王，更是去年股指创新高的AI核心。但投资者对AI支出渐谨慎，其股价四周前触顶后跌超12%📉，本次财报解读将牵动全局。

💎 估值与焦点 【回调更香+紧盯核心】
今年英伟达股价仍涨36%，是纳斯达克100指数回报率的两倍多。回调后远期市盈率29倍，低于10年平均35倍。投资者重点关注Blackwell芯片销售及利润率，数据中心业务贡献近90%营收🤑。

🎯 关键变量 【前景指引更重要】
华尔街反应或更看前景展望，Allspring基金经理预计业绩不差，重点看下季度指引，营收大概率超共识，但不确定是否保守🤷‍♂️。

📉 增速+大佬动作 【刹车+泡沫预警】
分析师预测2026-2028财年营收增速逐步降至22%，核心疑问：业绩达标能否转化股价上涨？Peter Thiel基金清空持仓，“大空头”Burry买入看跌期权，警告泡沫风险💣。

⚖️ 分歧与总结 【多空对半+降温思未来】
截至9月，134只基金对英伟达多空头寸几乎持平，分歧是否重估AI热潮待观察。分析师总结，英伟达虽是“绩优股”，当下适当降温思考下轮增长，实为明智之举🧐。
#Nvidia
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Nvidia recently posted record-breaking Q3 earnings: $57 billion in revenue, up 112% year-over-year, sending its stock soaring and adding $131 billion to its market value overnight. Wall Street celebrated, retail investors piled in—but a closer look at the SEC filings reveals a much darker story.
The $112 Billion Heist
Since 2018, Nvidia has generated $188 billion in cash, yet only $92 billion reached shareholders. The remaining $112 billion vanished through employee stock compensation, effectively enriching insiders at the expense of retail investors.
Nvidia repurchased shares at an average of $2,394 and then handed 47 million new shares to employees, diluting existing shareholders. In short: your investment helped make insiders rich while giving retail investors only half the benefit.
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Margins Are Crumbling
Despite claims of “insane demand” and $500 billion in chip orders, Nvidia’s gross margins fell from 74.6% to 73.4%, the first decline since 2022.
This signals that even a company with near-monopoly status can lose pricing power during shortages. Competition may be arriving just as the market expects continued dominance.
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The AI Power Wall
The bigger problem is energy supply. The US currently adds 45 gigawatts of power per year, while AI hardware will require 250–350 gigawatts by 2030, leaving a 120–180 gigawatt shortfall.
Scaling electricity infrastructure this fast is practically impossible. Even gas turbines are sold out through 2030, and nuclear power won’t scale until 2035. Rising power costs (projected to increase 40% annually) could eventually exceed the cost of the chips themselves, breaking the economics of centralized AI.
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Smart Money Exited Early
Insiders and major investors seem aware of these risks:
SoftBank sold $5.8 billion of Nvidia shares before earnings.
Peter Thiel exited completely, previously holding 40% of his fund in Nvidia.
The timing suggests the smartest investors saw the valuation spike coming—and acted before it arrived.
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Market Implications
S&P 500 rose 0.53%, Nasdaq barely moved 0.03%, and Bitcoin surged to $91,234, decoupling from tech.
Correlations between Bitcoin and tech stocks dropped from 0.64 to 0.41, signaling early rotation into alternative assets.
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What This Means for the Future
Centralized AI may hit a “power wall” by 2027–2028.
As energy costs rise, decentralized and distributed AI computing models become economically necessary.
Open-source models could catch up by mid-2026, using 12x less energy than centralized systems.
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Investors should be aware: the $112B transfer, margin compression, and looming energy crisis are not priced into Nvidia stock. Retail investors chasing short-term gains may be walking into a perfect storm of dilution, rising costs, and infrastructure limits.

#Nvidia #stockmarketupdate #artificialintelligence #EnergyCrisis $BNB #CleanEnergy

😐 专家们越来越大声地低语，称人工智能泡沫开始出现裂缝。
恐慌的理由确实存在
🔽 大玩家退出头寸——这不是没有原因的
• 彼得·蒂尔完全退出了英伟达，售出了76%的特斯拉股票。
• 软银也减少了相当大一部分头寸，这加剧了市场的焦虑。

#Nvidia 最新的财报震撼了华尔街和科技界。数字令人瞠目结舌：570亿美元的收入和每股1.30美元，超出了所有预期。其股票上涨了3%，一夜之间增加了惊人的1300亿美元市值。

但在头条数字之下，一个更大的故事正在展开，这可能会重塑人工智能行业。

隐藏的问题：利润崩溃
Nvidia 的毛利率从 74.6% 降至 73.4%。表面上看，这似乎是微不足道的，但当世界上最具主导地位的芯片制造商在超级周期中看到利润压缩时，这表明存在更深层次的结构性问题。

英伟达宣布第三财季收入为570.1亿美元，超出华尔街预期约20亿美元，数据中心部门贡献了512亿美元。
比特币在2025年11月19日回升至91000美元以上，此前曾跌至89000美元以下，经历了从超过126000美元的高点下降27%的情况。