Bitcoin is trading around $86,000 after plunging early Monday to its lowest level in seven months, as the Institute for Supply Management prepares to release the November Manufacturing PMI at 10:00am ET today.
Economists expect a reading of 48.6, marking the eighth straight month of manufacturing contraction.
For crypto markets desperately seeking a catalyst after losing $1 trillion in market cap, weak factory data could provide relief by strengthening the case for Fed rate cuts.
October’s 48.7 reading showed 58% of manufacturing GDP contracting with persistent weakness in new orders and employment.
A deeper contraction today could revive dovish expectations and support Bitcoin’s fragile bounce from Monday’s lows, while a surprise expansion above 50 would crush remaining rate cut hopes and risk accelerating the selloff.
The timing is critical as Fed rate cut odds have collapsed to just 33% from nearly 100% three weeks ago, leaving crypto vulnerable to any data suggesting the economy can withstand higher rates longer.
Monday’s crash triggered over $1 billion in liquidations and pushed sentiment into extreme fear territory not seen since April 2025. Manufacturing weakness typically supports monetary easing, which historically floods markets with liquidity.
The ISM report’s employment and prices paid components will be closely watched: weak employment reinforces labor market softness from last week’s disappointing jobs data, while cooling price pressures would give the Fed room to cut even as manufacturing struggles.
Bitcoin sits just below key resistance with bullish technical divergences suggesting oversold conditions, but needs a macro catalyst to break out toward $98,000-$100,000.
Weak ISM data could provide that spark by shifting rate expectations, while strong manufacturing would validate the Fed’s restrictive stance and risk pushing Bitcoin toward $85,000 support.
With Treasury yields above 4.1% and the crypto Fear and Greed Index at extreme fear levels, today’s factory data represents a critical test of whether Bitcoin can mount a sustainable recovery or faces further capitulation.
Market Update: Bitcoin Eyes Manufacturing Data for Recovery Signal
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