BTC is down but not out following Powell’s hawkish commentary on rates.
What to Know
BTC remains above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), signaling long-term strength despite recent pressure.
However, trading below the Ichimoku cloud and a strengthening U.S. dollar index suggest short-term caution.
Technical indicators hint that BTC bulls must reclaim $116,000 to confirm renewed upside momentum.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is holding its ground after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments tempered expectations for a December rate cut, sparking short-term selling pressure across risk assets.
Despite the pullback, BTC continues to trade above the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $109,250, a widely followed gauge of long-term trend health. As of writing, BTC is changing hands around $111,000, showing resilience after bouncing off that crucial support.
Maintaining levels above the 200-day SMA is a constructive signal for bulls — but it may not be enough. Bitcoin remains trapped below the Ichimoku cloud, a technical formation used to assess short-term trend direction. Historically, extended periods below the cloud tend to precede deeper pullbacks if momentum doesn’t recover swiftly.
The longer BTC stays below the cloud, the higher the odds of a retest — or even a breakdown — below the 200-day SMA. Such a move could expose BTC to the $100,000 psychological level, a threshold that, if lost, could accelerate downside momentum. A similar pattern unfolded in February, when a prolonged period below the cloud led to a sharper correction toward $75,000.
Adding to the caution, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has confirmed a bullish crossover between its 50- and 100-day SMAs, signaling renewed strength. This aligns with a rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield, which has climbed back above 4%, marking a potential end to the recent downtrend in yields. Historically, firmer yields and a stronger dollar have coincided with risk-off sentiment across crypto and equities.
Options markets are also reflecting a defensive tone. According to Amberdata, BTC put options on Deribit are now trading at a 4%–5% volatility premium relative to calls, highlighting growing hedging demand and rising downside concerns post-Fed.
