Gold & Dow-Gold Ratio: The Fourth Turning Point
Recent market data from December 2025 shows the Dow-to-Gold ratio reaching a historic “Fourth Turning Point.” This signal has appeared only three times in the last 130 years — during the 1930s, the 1970s, and the early 2000s — and each time it marked the beginning of a multi-year period where gold strongly outperformed industrial stocks.
Gold is currently trading at record highs near $4,510–$4,540 per ounce, reflecting a powerful shift in global capital allocation. The Dow-Gold ratio is breaking down from a decades-long structure, signaling a major transition of wealth from equities into precious metals.
This move is being driven by several macro forces: expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, escalating geopolitical tensions such as the Venezuela blockade, and sustained accumulation by central banks seeking monetary protection.
As of December 26, 2025, the Dow-Gold ratio has officially confirmed this rare turning point. Historically, similar signals in 1930, 1968, and 2002 were followed by an average 90% decline in the Dow relative to gold. The ratio has already fallen sharply from 22.5 in 2018 to around 10.9 today, reinforcing the view that equities are becoming increasingly expensive while gold strengthens its role as the preferred store of value.
Gold’s current price action near all-time highs reflects growing confidence in hard assets amid rising uncertainty. With geopolitical risks elevated, central bank demand accelerating, and monetary easing expected ahead, gold’s structural outperformance narrative continues to gain momentum.
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