To get a sense of the risk involved in the MSTR trade, think of it as a 1.2x-1.3x BTC levered long that only gets liquidated if BTC trades below the liquidation level for like 4 years in a row
Similar magnitude move up on $BTC as in November, but this time we have WAY less froth on altcoins
Few examples of stuff that happened in Nov-Dec :
- $PNUT to $2.4bn in a few days - $XRP from $60bn to $300bn FDV in 3 weeks - $TRX 2x'ing in a day to almost $40bn MC - $GOAT was a $1bn coin and several on-chain coins were reaching $300M+ market cap - Dead coins like $IOTA went up 6x in a month
Hard to see us not test the liquidation level of the HL whale ($104k) in a long weekend while momentum has slowed down and there is no ETF + Saylor inflows
There is no incentive to get meaningfully long when you know about this massive target $4K lower
The funny thing about BTC treasury companies is that it's the first time that CT is WAAAY more concerned about the future downside than the initial run up