Stockmoney Lizards

#Bitcoin

The Three Rising Valleys pattern is screaming at you.

Each valley higher than the last - Valley 1 at the March lows around 73k, Valley 2 in April, and now Valley 3 forming around 97-100k. Classic accumulation structure.

Here's what the 3RV pattern tells us: institutional money is stepping in at higher and higher levels. They're not waiting for 60k anymore. They're not even waiting for 80k. The floor keeps rising.

Two scenarios play out from here:

A) We chop sideways in this 100-105k range and breakout directly.
B) One more dip to test that Valley 3 support around 97-94k, then breakout

Either way, the limits are set. If we dip, Most retailers will see likely find themselves proven right about that "double top". Some will short it or wait for lower prices that never come, fueling the squeeze.

Others will panic sell if we retest support, missing the fact that higher lows in a bull market are rocket fuel.

The 3RV pattern has been telegraphing this accumulation for months. Smart money knows institutional demand has put a floor under this market.

Every dip gets bought harder than the last.

The breakout is coming. The only question is from which level.

#Bitcoin

The Three Rising Valleys pattern is screaming at you, but most won't listen.

Each valley higher than the last - Valley 1 at the March lows around 73k, Valley 2 in April, and now Valley 3 forming around 97-100k. Classic accumulation structure.

Here's what the 3RV pattern tells us: institutional money is stepping in at higher and higher levels. They're not waiting for 60k anymore. They're not even waiting for 80k. The floor keeps rising.

Two scenarios play out from here:

A) We chop sideways in this 100-105k range and breakout directly.
B) One more dip to test that Valley 3 support around 97-94k, then breakout

Either way, the limits are set. If we dip, Most retailers will see likely find themselves proven right about that "double top". Some will short it or wait for lower prices that never come, fueling the squeeze.

Others will panic sell if we retest support, missing the fact that higher lows in a bull market are rocket fuel.

The 3RV pattern has been telegraphing this accumulation for months. Smart money knows institutional demand has put a floor under this market.

Every dip gets bought harder than the last.

The breakout is coming. The only question is from which level.

1/3
Bears are waiting for rejection.

Once we successfully tap the pink box, it will likely be a chain reaction and a classical short squeeze.

A mini thread on liquidity-based metrics

#Bitcoin

#Bitcoin

The macro pattern that's hiding in plain sight

I'm usually skeptical of these big picture charts. Most "patterns" are just hopium dressed up with fancy lines.

But this one actually makes me pay attention.

We just completed a textbook cup and handle on the multi-year timeframe. And I mean textbook - complete with the retest that nobody wanted to see but everyone needed (what happens after multi-year breakouts can be seen with XRP e.g. although I personally have no interest in the coin, but it's a good example)

The breakout happened. The 4-year resistance finally cracked. We even got that brutal retest that shook out the weak hands.

If we look at projections, this would be pointing to ~300k as the optimistic cycle target.

Do I think we'll actually hit 300k? Probably not. I shared some targets earlier based on Fib. extensions - also, the market loves to disappoint the most bullish scenarios.

But honestly, 170k - 200k is absolutely on the table. Of course, this will happen stepwise, but it definitely looks like a realistic target.

Back to the Breakout pattern with the retest: The pattern is so clean it should be obvious. Yet somehow, most people will still miss it (the famous: when in doubt, zoom out)

🧵 THREAD: Crypto-X is flipping bearish again, predicting a 2021 double top.

I see influencers saying "I sold all my #Bitcoin today" everywhere.

The narrative is getting loud. But what's really behind it?

I took a deep dive watching some important indicators👇

#Bitcoin

The pattern is so obvious it hurts. Yet most will still miss it.

Monthly OTT Bands (Optimized Trend Tracker) - the cleanest trend indicator you can use for macro moves.

Look at this progression:

2014-2016: Retest and breakout → Bull run to $20k
2018-2020: Retest and breakout → Bull run to $69k
2022-2024: Retest and breakout → Bull run to ???

We just broke out of the monthly OTT bands. Again.

OTT bands show you when assets are ready for their next major leg up - and we're there.

#Bitcoin

Most are not ready for this. They will fiddle with leverage, get liquidated by whipsaw movements and will once again stay sidelined.

Look at this chart.

My grey trendline shows where we're heading. Minimum target? The 1.618 Fibonacci extension around $142k - for now. But honestly, that's probably conservative. We could easily see $180k+ this year.

Here's what's gonna happen though: Most traders will see Bitcoin at $109k and think "it's too high now." They'll wait for a dip that never comes, or they'll short the top (spoiler: it's not the top). Others, who are late to the game are buying now with 50x leverage, will get wiped out during a Powell speech or a Trump post.

Meanwhile, the smart money understands that breaking ATH in crypto is like breaking the sound barrier. Once you're through, there's nothing but blue sky above.

This isn't 2017 where we had one parabolic move and crashed. This is institutional adoption. This is countries buying. This is the big leagues now.

The breakout is here. The real move is just getting started. 🦎

#Bitcoin

get ready.

#Bitcoin

posted this a while ago.

Look ath the charts and tell me you don't see this happening right now.

#Altcoins
Breakout: ✅Check
Retest: ✅Check
Pump: ⏳Loading

Just to clarify some of my "cautios posts" (dont buy ATH etc):

I do believe we go higher. Much higher, for both #Bitcoin and #Altcoins.

But buying should happen after pullbacks of -30 / -50 / -70%. That's my strategy to maximize gains.

Buying the ATH can work, too, and you might enjoy the run. It is, however, not my strategy.

#Altcoins

I expect a massive rotation of money into Alts once BTC hits the next local top.

This chart looks juicy AF

(TOTAL3/BTC)

Commet section.
What is this crap?
Thought we were promised less bots???

#Bitcoin

The Next Chapter: $160K in Sight 🎯?

Alright Lizards, we crushed the $110K target. Time to talk about what's next.

Looking at the macro picture, the Fibonacci extensions are painting a clear path toward $160K as our next major target. This isn't some moonboy hopium - it's what the math is telling us based on this multi-year ascending channel structure.

But here's the thing everyone needs to understand: just because we have a target doesn't mean it's a straight line up. There will be corrections, pullbacks, and moments where it feels like the world is ending. That's how bull markets work.

And for the love of all that's holy - DON'T FOMO INTO NEW ATHS. I can't stress this enough. The best entries in bull markets happen during the corrections that scare everyone else out. When Bitcoin pulls back 15-20% and X is screaming about the "top," that's when you add to your stack (until you not, because metrics have turned bearish - but we're not there yet).

We just broke a major psychological level. Smart money will not buy here. Retail will chase. Guess which group typically wins?

The target is $160K based on Fibonacci extensions, but getting there will be a journey filled with opportunities for those patient enough to wait for pullbacks.

Stay disciplined. The real money is made by those who can resist the urge to chase green candles.

Next major correction = next major opportunity 🦎

You can hodl your #Bitcoin. That's fine. Buy on pullbacks and sleep well at night.

But if you're in #Altcoins, the situation is completely different.

No matter how revolutionary "the team," how promising "the roadmap," or how game-changing "the use case" - ultimately, they will all go to zero against BTC.

I don't care how much you love your bags. It's about hype cycles, and while that hype can be absolutely gigantic, trading alts is like playing Mikado while on a rollercoaster.

If you decide to go down that road anyway, here's what I'm doing (this applies to longer-term positions, spot only - not talking about swing trading or futures):

Focus on few projects. Don't overdilute your portfolio with 20 different shitcoins. You're not building an index fund.

Don't buy obvious garbage. Skip the "dead" projects or obvious rugpulls. Use your brain.

Buy fear like it's on sale. Look at 3-day RSI or weekly RSI and ONLY buy when it's screaming oversold below 30. This sounds stupid simple, but it works.

Check the long-term chart. Pull up a 3-5 year view. If it looks like total crap, move on.

Do basic research - token unlocks, TVL, actual user numbers, etc.

Scale in properly. 3-5 entries at key support levels. Don't hero-buy the whole position at once (this was one of my biggest mistakes int he past).

Take profits like your life depends on it. Be happy with 50%, 100%, or 200%. Don't wait for that 100x.

Roundtripping your gains is infinitely worse than "selling too early."

Nobody went broke taking profits.
Rinse and repeat. The cycle never stops.

Not financial advice (although it might read differently, just sharing experience)

shitters taking up speed.
#Altcoins

I was hated for my bullishness on #Bitcoin in 2022.

And I missed the bottom. Called it at 28k. Called it at 20k.

Did I buy there? Yes.
Was I convinced it was the absolute bottom? No.

Here's the thing about buying in bear markets: You'll likely see another 10-30% downside. You don't go all in at once.

But if you want to be right, that doesn't make you money. Not necessarily.

Now at $110k, buying after +400% where you might get some more gains but with every move up risk increases you fall down -70% and more.

Your gains are lower, your risks explode.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think this bull market is over. We have more to go.

But I'd rather be early and wrong at $20k than late and right at $110k.

The market rewards patience over precision.

Buying #Bitcoin today is way riskier than buying in November 2022 at 15k.

Below 200w SMA
weekly RSI below 30, monthly below 40

These are the setups where you go all in.

We will get more opportunities to buy.

For now, enjoy the pump and don't buy the green candles.

NFA.

cmon!!!
#Bitcoin

#Bitcoin

once fully broken, the squeeze will be epic.

P.S.: Now is not the time for buying ;)

We bought <80k (see second post)