Personal learnings for Altcoins (if you choose to be active in that segment):
Don't buy green god candles.
Low prices, low rsi on high timeframes = derisked asset
don't chase altseason, 200-300% in crypto are easy if you accumulate low, you don't need altseason.
Don't ape into every coin you see. Focus on few. It will lead to a) low cash reserves in dips b) distract your focus. 500% gains with $100 investment is worse than 50% gains with $10,000 investment.
Don't set utopic targets.
Give yourself time. 5 years are better then 5 months.
If you rush, chances are high your ngmi
Sell when others are celebrating. As you scale in, so you scale out of positions.
Accept the fact that you will NEVER hit the exact bottom or peak.
To the Monday Morning Quarterbacks in My Comments:
Been noticing something interesting lately. Folks with 2 followers and zero content of their own popping up days later with "you were wrong" comments.
Look, I get it. It's easy to play the "gotcha" game after the fact. Markets moved differently than expected? Wait 5 days, then show up with "I knew better" energy.
Here's the thing though - all this content is free. The analysis, the setups, the real-time thinking. I'm literally sharing my trading playbook and thought process with thousands of people daily.
Trading isn't about being right 100% of the time - it's about risk management and catching the moves that matter. When I say "we might retrace to 88k before going higher," that's not a bearish call - it's considering all scenarios so you're prepared.
Remember when I was pounding the table to accumulate sub-80k? Over and over again. That played out exactly as expected. But nobody's rushing to the comments with "hey, that call was spot on."
I'm following a simple strategy (scaling in, proper position sizing, not using leverage for long-term positions), and I am money regardless of whether every short-term price prediction hits.
Easy to throw rocks from the sidelines. Much harder to put yourself out there daily with actionable ideas.
Want to critique? Cool. But maybe bring some actual analysis to the table. Or better yet, post your own calls in real-time instead of with 20/20 hindsight.
Just a thought.
Now back to finding setups that actually make us money...
with a lot of short-term PA focus, it's once again time to take a step back and see where we stand.
The Facts: - BTC buy zone is near the 50 month SMMA - Bear signal comes when BTC (post-Halving) crosses 7 month SMMA - Bull market buying opportunities occur at touches of the 7month SMMA
I will leave the interpretation of the current chart up to you.
once again, people are hooked on the idea that FOMC meeting and interest rate decision will "decide" where BTC is going. They are wrong.
If you look at the chart, you will see one thing: BTC's recent history alone is lined up with impactful and severe events.
And now imagine not seeing these events on the chart. What would you think? Probably this:
1. "Yes, after 2021, a bear market was the only logical possibility. BTC surged after Covid, after Trillions of dollars were printed, after people were euphoric calling 100k and more!"
2. "In December 2022, that was max pain after >70% from the highs. The bear market was long and reversal usually happens below the 200 w SMA."
3. "In 2024, BTC broke the old all time high. IT was necessary to correct"
4. "In 2025, BTC broke 100k, after a 2.5 years rally, a longer correction was necessary."
So, there will always be any macroeconomic event. And strangely, these are always timed when it's max pain or max euphoria. Get used to it. It's a pattern, and it has been true for any asset throughout history.
2025 will still be good. The correction can last until Q4 worst case, but we will see another leg up.