Lojii

If you want to survive in this market, accept this truth: Big corrections are inevitable, and if your mindset isn’t ready, you’re destined to lose.

🔸 In 2017’s mega bull run, $BTC had multiple 30-35% corrections, and altcoins were wrecked.

🔸 In 2021, from January to summer, we experienced 5 major pullbacks.
Remember: A mega bull run doesn’t mean endless green candles. The market gives 1, takes 2; gives 3, takes 2. If you jump from trade to trade trying to time everything, you’ll burn through your capital in no time. #CorePCESignalsShift

This is why spot trading (or at most 2x leverage) is key. Corrections are part of the game. Stay patient, hold your positions, and don’t panic during dips.

Bottom line: Protect your portfolio and stick to your strategy. #BTCNextMove

Throughout 2024, Bitcoin advance was not driven by technical momentum alone. The rally was built on a structural shift in demand. The approval and launch of spot ETFs created a new access channel for institutional capital, and that steady inflow acted as a constant bid underneath the market. At the same time, the halving narrative reinforced the supply constraint story.

Reduced new issuance combined with fresh ETF demand created an imbalance that pushed price through prior cycle highs and into price discovery. On the weekly chart, every pullback during that phase was shallow because capital rotation was consistent and liquidity conditions were supportive enough to sustain risk appetite. #StrategyBTCPurchase
The tone began to change in 2025. As Bitcoin approached the 110k to 130k region, ETF inflows slowed and, in certain weeks, turned into net outflows. That shift mattered. The market was no longer being structurally absorbed by passive inflows at the same pace. Simultaneously, expectations for aggressive rate cuts in the United States were pushed further out, keeping financial conditions tighter than many risk participants had anticipated. Higher bond yields and a firm dollar reduced speculative appetite across risk assets and Bitcoin’s correlation to broader liquidity conditions became more visible again.
$BTC
Technically, the loss of the 70,092 level marked a key transition. That zone had previously acted as consolidation support and later as a structural base during the breakout phase. A weekly close below it was not just a chart event, it signalled that the prior demand narrative had weakened. Markets move on flows, and when the assumption of continuous ETF absorption faded, the price structure adjusted accordingly. The emergence of a lower high followed by a lower low confirmed that momentum had shifted from expansion to correction.
On chain data during this period showed signs of distribution from segments of longer term holders, while shorter term holder cost bases moved closer to current price. This tends to increase volatility because supply becomes more sensitive to price fluctuations. At the same time, macro headwinds limited the probability of immediate recovery. Without a renewed liquidity impulse, upside follow through naturally struggled. #TrumpNewTariffs
What could stabilise the structure from here would require both technical and fundamental alignment. Technically, reclaiming and holding above 70,000 on a weekly basis would be a first signal that breakdown risk has diminished. Fundamentally, renewed and sustained ETF inflows, clearer signals of monetary easing, or meaningful corporate balance sheet allocations could restore confidence in the demand side. Bitcoin does not need hype to recover, it needs consistent capital flow and a supportive liquidity backdrop.
If those conditions fail to materialise, a move toward the 52,360 region would represent a logical structural retracement rather than an anomaly. Markets typically seek the next major value area after losing a high timeframe support. That would not imply the end of the broader cycle by default, but rather a reset phase within it. #
In essence, the 2024 rally was built on supply reduction and institutional access expansion. The 2025 correction reflects slowing capital inflows, macro pressure, and profit realisation near cycle highs. Bitcoin is not in a clear trend at the moment. It is in a decision zone where liquidity, capital rotation, and weekly closes will determine whether the market rebuilds its structure above prior pivots or continues searching for a deeper equilibrium.

The Illusion of Healthy Growth
There is a scenario few investors are truly stress testing. Productivity rises. Corporate margins expand. Equity indices remain elevated. Yet households feel increasingly fragile. #StrategyBTCPurchase
On paper, output improves. In practice, the income loop weakens.
If a growing share of economic value is produced by systems that do not earn wages, take mortgages, or consume goods, then national accounts may continue to print growth while the consumer layer quietly thins out. This is not a traditional downturn. It is a structural redistribution of who receives income in the first place.
The danger is subtle. Output without circulation eventually becomes unstable.
When Cost Savings Become Self Reinforcing
Each firm that replaces labour with machine intelligence acts rationally. Lower costs protect margins. Margins support share prices. Share prices reward management.
The problem emerges at the aggregate level. $BTC
Savings on payroll are increasingly redirected into more compute, which further reduces the need for payroll. This creates a feedback mechanism that does not contain its own brake. In past cycles, falling demand slowed investment. Here, substitution can accelerate even as demand softens, because it is framed as efficiency rather than expansion.
That distinction matters more than most realise.
The Collapse of Friction
A significant share of modern business models rely on human limitations. Inertia. Time scarcity. Habit. Mild indifference to price optimisation.
When autonomous agents negotiate, compare, and transact continuously, that friction erodes. Subscriptions get cancelled. Insurance gets reshopped. Interchange becomes visible. Intermediation layers that once felt durable begin to compress.
It is not that these businesses disappear overnight. It is that their margins slowly lose structural support. #TokenizedRealEstate
Markets tend to underestimate that kind of erosion.
From Sector Story to Systemic Risk
At first, disruption looks contained. A few industries wobble. Multiples adjust. Analysts debate whether valuations have bottomed.
But in a services heavy economy, white collar wages fund a disproportionate share of discretionary consumption. If those wages are structurally impaired rather than cyclically paused, the effects travel further than employment data alone suggests.
Credit markets are built on income continuity. Mortgages assume stable earnings over decades. Corporate leverage assumes recurring revenue. If the income base shifts permanently, the repricing can feel sudden even if the cause was gradual.
Financial systems rarely break because of the first loss. They break when assumptions are rewritten.
The Policy Constraint
Governments are designed to stabilise cycles, not absorb structural displacement at scale. Tax receipts rely heavily on labour income. If labour’s share contracts while output rises elsewhere, fiscal strain appears even before a conventional crisis.
Transfers can cushion the blow. They cannot easily recreate the old distribution of earnings.
That tension is political as much as economic. Productivity gains that accrue narrowly create pressure that institutions struggle to process quickly.
A Question Worth Asking
None of this guarantees collapse. Economies adapt. New equilibria form. Innovation continues.
But the underlying question remains unavoidable.
If intelligence is no longer scarce, what becomes scarce instead?
Capital may thrive. Compute may scale. But unless income finds its way back into households in a durable way, the consumer economy that underpins much of modern finance becomes thinner than headline growth suggests.
The risk is not that technology advances too slowly. #TrumpNewTariffs
The risk is that it advances faster than the frameworks built around human income can adjust.

I’m not writing this to show a moment of strength. I’m writing it to document that after one of the hardest periods of my life, I’m still standing.
Last year, I lost over $50,000. This wasn’t the result of recklessness or impulse. It began with being hacked and turned into a chain of events that took more than money from me. I lost my X account that I had built over six years. It was permanently shut down. Six years of content, trust, relationships, and consistency disappeared overnight. #TrumpEndsShutdown

The financial loss was heavy, but the psychological weight was worse. Prolonged stress started affecting my body, and I developed heart rhythm issues. That was the point where everything stopped. When your health signals danger, there’s no ignoring it. I was exhausted, mentally broken, and carrying the weight of effort that felt wasted. $BNB
People usually talk about losing money. But the loss of time, identity and effort is quieter and much deeper. Starting again felt meaningless on some days and unfair on others. What I went through was genuinely difficult, and yes, much of it felt like work that had led nowhere. $BTC
Then something shifted. After long months of effort, I received an email from X, and I recovered my account. It wasn’t just about getting a profile back. It was proof that something I thought was permanently gone could still be rebuilt.
Today, I’m a different person. Calmer. More intentional. More selective. I didn’t recover quickly I recovered healthily. It wasn’t easy, but it was real. There is now a woman here who knows how to rebuild, even when it’s hard. A woman who doesn’t deny what happened, but also doesn’t surrender to it.

This experience taught me something very clear: women must always be able to stand on their own feet financially, mentally, and emotionally. No platform, no market, no external validation should ever be the only foundation we stand on. Because everything can disappear at once accounts, money, titles. What you build within yourself remains. #StrategyBTCPurchase
The world is getting heavier. Markets are falling. This isn’t new it has happened before. In times like these, the biggest mistake people make is chasing fast money. Don’t rush. Wait for the right moment.

You are not alone here.
We will stand back up.To you reading this:If you feel like you’ve fallen…If everyone else seems to be moving forward while you’re stuck…If you’re at a point where you’re thinking, “I’m done”…Know this:You’re not finished.You’re being reshaped.You don’t have to stand up today.But you can decide not to give up.I decided.And I’m moving forward.There is still so much unwritten.And this story doesn’t end here.

Markets started the week with a sharp sell off.
Not just Bitcoin U.S. equities, gold, silver, and almost all commodities are down together. #TrumpProCrypto
That matters.
Because this is not a “crypto problem.” This is a broad risk off move and a clear liquidity pullback across global markets.
When money leaves risk, it doesn’t rotate into another risky asset. It steps aside.
And that context changes how this move should be read.
Everyone Sees the Drop That’s Not the Real Question
Yes, prices are lower.
Yes, volatility is high.
Yes, sentiment is shaky.
But the real question isn’t what fell. $BTC
It’s where the capital goes next and how far this reset needs to go before balance returns.
Markets don’t reverse when fear starts.
They reverse when fear feels exhausting and certainty disappears.

Bitcoin in Context, Not Emotion
Bitcoin is currently trading around $74–75k, down roughly 40% from recent highs.
This is usually the phase where familiar narratives come back:
“this time is different”
“the cycle is broken”
“it won’t recover like before”
These narratives are not new.
They appear in every major drawdown.
Market cycles don’t change
only the emotional pressure does.

Why This Level Actually Matters
From a technical perspective, the $74k area is critical.
This zone represents:
• A major support tested after a prolonged decline
• A previous resistance area that flipped into support (S/R flip)
These are decision zones.
Price either holds and reacts or breaks cleanly and moves lower.
Both outcomes are possible.
What matters is how risk is handled.

Addressing the Downside Honestly
Yes, further downside is possible.
If conditions worsen, Bitcoin could revisit:
• $52k
• In extreme scenarios, even the high $30k range
Ignoring that is not analysis it’s hope.
But this is where planning replaces prediction.
For me, a daily close below $74k is invalidation.
That means a controlled stop roughly 5% downside risk.

Why the Risk Reward Is Still Attractive
At current levels:
• Risk ≈ 5%
• First upside zone: $100–105k
• Extension targets: $120k+
That creates a 40–60% upside potential against a defined risk.
In uncertain markets, I don’t look for certainty. I look for asymmetric setups.
And it’s worth remembering: Even gold, a $37 trillion market, dropped nearly 20% in two days recently.
In that context, a 5% defined risk on Bitcoin is not aggressive it’s disciplined.

Being Clear When the Market Isn’t
In periods like this, many avoid being specific.
Uncertainty makes vague commentary easy.
I prefer clarity:
• Scenario defined
• Risk defined
• Exit defined
From my side, I am buying this level,with a strict stop on a daily close below $74k.
I don’t need to be right.
I need to be prepared. #StrategyBTCPurchase

Final Thought
Markets usually turn not when confidence is high
but when nobody feels confident enough to speak clearly.
If you’d like to see similar structured, plan driven analysis
for ETH and selected altcoins, feel free to like and repost.
Wishing everyone a calm, disciplined, and focused week.