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BITCOIN’S 4-YEAR CYCLE ISN’T DEAD — IT’S PLAYING OUT EXACTLY ON TIME.
Zoom out, ignore the noise, and look at the roadmap Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.
The long-term chart gives one of the cleanest signals in crypto:
Cycle Peak Timing:
→ 2012
→ 2017
→ 2021
→ 2025 loading…
Every top has landed roughly 1,420–1,450 days apart — almost like clockwork.
And after every peak, one brutal truth repeats:
2012 top → -79% crash
2017 top → -81% crash
2021 top → -75% crash
Same structure. Same timing. Same macro psychology.
So when people say “This time is different,” the chart says:
No — this time is the same. And the next major peak is lining up for 2025.
If history repeats, we’re entering the final acceleration phase.
Stay focused. Stay strategic.
The real move hasn’t even started yet.
#CYCLE
Zoom out, ignore the noise, and look at the roadmap Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.
The long-term chart gives one of the cleanest signals in crypto:
Cycle Peak Timing:
→ 2012
→ 2017
→ 2021
→ 2025 loading…
Every top has landed roughly 1,420–1,450 days apart — almost like clockwork.
And after every peak, one brutal truth repeats:
2012 top → -79% crash
2017 top → -81% crash
2021 top → -75% crash
Same structure. Same timing. Same macro psychology.
So when people say “This time is different,” the chart says:
No — this time is the same. And the next major peak is lining up for 2025.
If history repeats, we’re entering the final acceleration phase.
Stay focused. Stay strategic.
The real move hasn’t even started yet.
#CYCLE
BitMine Begins Staking Its $12 Billion Ethereum Holdings
BitMine, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, has begun staking part of its $12 billion ETH treasury.
On December 27, on-chain analyst Ember CN reported that the firm deposited approximately 74,880 ETH, valued at about $219 million, into Ethereum staking contracts.
Arthur Hayes also just bought LDO? Will LSDFi coins pump again?
BitMine, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, has begun staking part of its $12 billion ETH treasury.
On December 27, on-chain analyst Ember CN reported that the firm deposited approximately 74,880 ETH, valued at about $219 million, into Ethereum staking contracts.
Arthur Hayes also just bought LDO? Will LSDFi coins pump again?
$LDO Analysis: Arthur Hayes Accelerates LDO and PENDLE Accumulation, Signaling a DeFi Recovery Cycle?
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, is attracting market attention for rapidly accumulating two DeFi tokens, LDO and PENDLE, in a short period. According to on-chain data, Hayes has invested approximately $1.03 million in LDO and nearly $973,000 in PENDLE — a scale large enough to be considered a deliberate positioning move, rather than a test trade.
The key point lies in the timing of the buyout. Both tokens are trading within a compressed price structure, following prolonged downtrends, with market sentiment remaining cautious and no clear reversal signals yet emerging. Buying before a confirmed trend suggests Hayes is likely betting on an early reversal scenario, rather than chasing momentum.
Structurally, PENDLE is showing more positive signals as it breaks out of the descending channel and holds above the $1.67 demand zone. Derivative volume increased by 29% to nearly $79 million, while open interest increased by 7%, indicating that new leveraged capital is entering the market in an orderly manner. The continued upward price movement along with open interest typically reflects a transition from accumulation to expansion.
Meanwhile, LDO has broken out of a descending wedge pattern, with the proportion of long positions on Binance increasing to nearly 60%. The upward momentum is steady, with no signs of overload, suggesting confidence is forming in the early stages.
The convergence of large capital flows, derivative signals, and technical structure suggests that LDO and PENDLE are positioned for a strategic rebound, rather than a short-term rally based on euphoria.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, is attracting market attention for rapidly accumulating two DeFi tokens, LDO and PENDLE, in a short period. According to on-chain data, Hayes has invested approximately $1.03 million in LDO and nearly $973,000 in PENDLE — a scale large enough to be considered a deliberate positioning move, rather than a test trade.
The key point lies in the timing of the buyout. Both tokens are trading within a compressed price structure, following prolonged downtrends, with market sentiment remaining cautious and no clear reversal signals yet emerging. Buying before a confirmed trend suggests Hayes is likely betting on an early reversal scenario, rather than chasing momentum.
Structurally, PENDLE is showing more positive signals as it breaks out of the descending channel and holds above the $1.67 demand zone. Derivative volume increased by 29% to nearly $79 million, while open interest increased by 7%, indicating that new leveraged capital is entering the market in an orderly manner. The continued upward price movement along with open interest typically reflects a transition from accumulation to expansion.
Meanwhile, LDO has broken out of a descending wedge pattern, with the proportion of long positions on Binance increasing to nearly 60%. The upward momentum is steady, with no signs of overload, suggesting confidence is forming in the early stages.
The convergence of large capital flows, derivative signals, and technical structure suggests that LDO and PENDLE are positioned for a strategic rebound, rather than a short-term rally based on euphoria.
Whales are aggressively accumulating $ASTER
Aster has seen whale interest in the last 24 hours – rather than a long-term accumulation trend. Over the past day, the amount of ASTER held by whales increased by 2.37%.
Following this purchase, the total amount of ASTER held by whales reached approximately 19.23 million tokens, equivalent to over $320,000 at the current price.
Although the numbers aren't huge, it's noteworthy because ASTER has fallen by over 30% in a month. This move could indicate a shift in market sentiment from aggressive selling to cautious accumulation.
Price movements also reinforce this assessment. ASTER plummeted from around $1.40 on November 19th and found solid support around $0.65 throughout December. Selling pressure also weakened, as shown by the Wyckoff Volume indicator, with the red and yellow bars (indicating seller control) shrinking since December 15th. The shift to lighter red/yellow bars suggests sellers are losing their advantage.
Conversely, if the price falls below $0.65, this argument will be broken. A significant drop below this level could lead to ASTER facing new lows as year-end volatility increases.
Aster has seen whale interest in the last 24 hours – rather than a long-term accumulation trend. Over the past day, the amount of ASTER held by whales increased by 2.37%.
Following this purchase, the total amount of ASTER held by whales reached approximately 19.23 million tokens, equivalent to over $320,000 at the current price.
Although the numbers aren't huge, it's noteworthy because ASTER has fallen by over 30% in a month. This move could indicate a shift in market sentiment from aggressive selling to cautious accumulation.
Price movements also reinforce this assessment. ASTER plummeted from around $1.40 on November 19th and found solid support around $0.65 throughout December. Selling pressure also weakened, as shown by the Wyckoff Volume indicator, with the red and yellow bars (indicating seller control) shrinking since December 15th. The shift to lighter red/yellow bars suggests sellers are losing their advantage.
Conversely, if the price falls below $0.65, this argument will be broken. A significant drop below this level could lead to ASTER facing new lows as year-end volatility increases.
Reasons why XRP is poised to lead 2026 DESPITE drop below $2
The market is already hyping 2026, and there’s a good reason for it.
On the regulatory side, the Clarity Act, set for markup in early January, is starting to set the tone for the broader crypto market. According to AMBCrypto, this is where L1s are stepping into the spotlight.
The logic is simple – If the Act draws a clearer line between speculation and regulation, competition among L1s is bound to heat up. And, when you look at Ripple [XRP], it feels like bulls are already front-running that narrative.
Source: Glassnode
According to data from Glassnode, XRP balances on exchanges have dropped from roughly 4 billion towards the start of the year to around 1.5 billion at press time. In other words, sell-side liquidity has been thinning out.
At the same time, XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.14 billion in cumulative net inflows across five products, giving institutional demand a noticeable boost. Put together, this lines up well with AMBCrypto’s broader L1 thesis.
With on-chain demand for XRP holding up, bulls seem to be treating the Clarity Act as a key catalyst for XRP. Especially given how its strategic roadmap has played out so far in 2025.
Against that backdrop, does XRP’s move below $2 look more like a textbook reset than a true structural breakdown?
XRP’s supply squeeze faces market hesitation
Despite the earlier hype, 2025 hasn’t been kind to the altcoin market.
From a technical angle, most alts are still trading well below their late-Q3 highs. That lines up with the Altcoin Season Index topping at 80 and now sitting at 37, showing how little rotation there’s been into high-beta names.
Even top caps haven’t been spared.
That being said, the relative drawdowns stand out. Solana [SOL] is down 40% on the year, while XRP has slipped by 12%. Additionally, XRP’s Open Interest on Binance has dropped to $453 million – Its lowest level since early 2024.
Source: CryptoQuant
According to AMBCrypto, this setup gives XRP a noticeable edge.
As discussed previously, the Clarity Act is shaping up to be a key tailwind for L1s. And looking back at 2025, XRP has clearly held up better than most top caps, with its leverage flush helping the structure look cleaner.
Against that backdrop, XRP’s move below $2 feels more like a healthy reset. In fact, with strong on-chain demand, controlled leverage, and relative outperformance, the altcoin looks well-positioned to lead into 2026.
$XRP
On the regulatory side, the Clarity Act, set for markup in early January, is starting to set the tone for the broader crypto market. According to AMBCrypto, this is where L1s are stepping into the spotlight.
The logic is simple – If the Act draws a clearer line between speculation and regulation, competition among L1s is bound to heat up. And, when you look at Ripple [XRP], it feels like bulls are already front-running that narrative.
Source: Glassnode
According to data from Glassnode, XRP balances on exchanges have dropped from roughly 4 billion towards the start of the year to around 1.5 billion at press time. In other words, sell-side liquidity has been thinning out.
At the same time, XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.14 billion in cumulative net inflows across five products, giving institutional demand a noticeable boost. Put together, this lines up well with AMBCrypto’s broader L1 thesis.
With on-chain demand for XRP holding up, bulls seem to be treating the Clarity Act as a key catalyst for XRP. Especially given how its strategic roadmap has played out so far in 2025.
Against that backdrop, does XRP’s move below $2 look more like a textbook reset than a true structural breakdown?
XRP’s supply squeeze faces market hesitation
Despite the earlier hype, 2025 hasn’t been kind to the altcoin market.
From a technical angle, most alts are still trading well below their late-Q3 highs. That lines up with the Altcoin Season Index topping at 80 and now sitting at 37, showing how little rotation there’s been into high-beta names.
Even top caps haven’t been spared.
That being said, the relative drawdowns stand out. Solana [SOL] is down 40% on the year, while XRP has slipped by 12%. Additionally, XRP’s Open Interest on Binance has dropped to $453 million – Its lowest level since early 2024.
Source: CryptoQuant
According to AMBCrypto, this setup gives XRP a noticeable edge.
As discussed previously, the Clarity Act is shaping up to be a key tailwind for L1s. And looking back at 2025, XRP has clearly held up better than most top caps, with its leverage flush helping the structure look cleaner.
Against that backdrop, XRP’s move below $2 feels more like a healthy reset. In fact, with strong on-chain demand, controlled leverage, and relative outperformance, the altcoin looks well-positioned to lead into 2026.
$XRP
$LINK Analysis : Whales are accumulating LINK
Chainlink is the first name on the list of coins attracting attention from whales. Over the past 30 days, large wallets have increased their LINK holdings by 57.79%, equivalent to approximately 680,000 LINK coins.
At the current price, this amount is worth nearly $8.5 million.
Notably, this accumulation process occurred amidst a LINK correction of approximately 7.5% during the same period. Smart money wallets also reduced their holdings by 5.2%, implying that whales are preparing for larger movements rather than expecting an immediate short-term price surge.
On the technical chart, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator shows that the red bars – representing selling pressure – have narrowed since December 24th. BBP measures the gap between the price and the moving average, helping to determine which side is controlling market momentum. As the red bars shrink, selling pressure is weakening.
LINK is currently attempting to regain short-term resistance around $12.50. If the price closes above this level, LINK will return to a short-term breakout trend. The next resistance zones to watch are $12.98 and $13.75; a break above $15.00 would confirm a clear uptrend.
Chainlink is the first name on the list of coins attracting attention from whales. Over the past 30 days, large wallets have increased their LINK holdings by 57.79%, equivalent to approximately 680,000 LINK coins.
At the current price, this amount is worth nearly $8.5 million.
Notably, this accumulation process occurred amidst a LINK correction of approximately 7.5% during the same period. Smart money wallets also reduced their holdings by 5.2%, implying that whales are preparing for larger movements rather than expecting an immediate short-term price surge.
On the technical chart, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator shows that the red bars – representing selling pressure – have narrowed since December 24th. BBP measures the gap between the price and the moving average, helping to determine which side is controlling market momentum. As the red bars shrink, selling pressure is weakening.
LINK is currently attempting to regain short-term resistance around $12.50. If the price closes above this level, LINK will return to a short-term breakout trend. The next resistance zones to watch are $12.98 and $13.75; a break above $15.00 would confirm a clear uptrend.
The SEC and CFTC are accelerating their collaboration to shape the crypto regulatory framework by 2026.
U.S. regulators are entering the second year of a sweeping reform period under President Donald Trump, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) pursuing an ambitious agenda and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) increasingly playing a central role in crypto oversight.
Under the Biden administration a year earlier, the SEC and CFTC were often seen as locked in a “territorial battle” over digital assets. Former CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam argued that most crypto fell under the CFTC’s commodity jurisdiction, while former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler asserted—with the exception of Bitcoin—that the majority of tokens were securities.
This landscape has changed over the past year. In September, the Acting Chairman of the CFTC declared that the territorial battle was over and the two agencies would cooperate in regulating crypto. Around the same time, the SEC and CFTC issued joint guidance, affirming that registered exchanges are not prohibited from supporting trading of certain spot crypto products, while also prioritizing 24/7 markets, perpetual contracts, and DeFi
Howard Fischer, a partner at Moses & Singer LLP and former senior litigation counsel for the SEC, believes the relationship between the two agencies has taken a significant turn. He notes that, for the first time in years, the SEC and CFTC are collaborating in a more constructive and coordinated manner. Fischer expects this trend of cooperation to further increase in 2026 and become a major driver of the agenda for the coming year.
U.S. regulators are entering the second year of a sweeping reform period under President Donald Trump, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) pursuing an ambitious agenda and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) increasingly playing a central role in crypto oversight.
Under the Biden administration a year earlier, the SEC and CFTC were often seen as locked in a “territorial battle” over digital assets. Former CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam argued that most crypto fell under the CFTC’s commodity jurisdiction, while former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler asserted—with the exception of Bitcoin—that the majority of tokens were securities.
This landscape has changed over the past year. In September, the Acting Chairman of the CFTC declared that the territorial battle was over and the two agencies would cooperate in regulating crypto. Around the same time, the SEC and CFTC issued joint guidance, affirming that registered exchanges are not prohibited from supporting trading of certain spot crypto products, while also prioritizing 24/7 markets, perpetual contracts, and DeFi
Howard Fischer, a partner at Moses & Singer LLP and former senior litigation counsel for the SEC, believes the relationship between the two agencies has taken a significant turn. He notes that, for the first time in years, the SEC and CFTC are collaborating in a more constructive and coordinated manner. Fischer expects this trend of cooperation to further increase in 2026 and become a major driver of the agenda for the coming year.
Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin challenges Europe’s “no space” vision for digital assets
The privacy coin boom taking place in 2025 is no coincidence.
Key industry stakeholders have time and again pushed back strongly against rules that leave no breathing space for crypto. The latest to have his say is Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
What’s happening?
Buterin has strong opinions against the European Union’s Digital Services Act (DSA). In a recent X post, the Ethereum co-founder warned that the law risks creating a digital environment where there is “no space” for controversial ideas or products to exist at all.
“I hope European govs do not go this way, and instead take a Pirate Party approach of user empowerment.”
While the DSA aims to make online platforms safer and more accountable, Buterin argued that this philosophy is flawed. He believes the problem isn’t that unpopular or extreme ideas exist, but that algorithms often amplify them at scale. Trying to erase such ideas entirely, he said, risks encouraging excessive surveillance and enforcement.
“There is a real opportunity to reaffirm freedom of speech in a unique and different way, that emphasizes pluralism and pushes against unbalanced attempts to manipulate the discourse…”
Privacy coins take the lead
Source: Artemis
This control and freedom discord is starting to impact the numbers. While most crypto sectors have struggled this year, privacy coins are moving in the opposite direction.
In fact, data from Artemis revealed that they are the best-performing sector YTD, far outperforming everything else.
Source: TradingView
While Bitcoin [BTC] remains the market’s anchor, its performance this cycle has been relatively restrained.
Over the same period that Bitcoin has struggled to push higher, Zcash [ZEC] has surged by more than 700%. Monero [XMR] has held its ground with far less downside too.
Source: Coinmarketcap
Trading activity is rising as well, with privacy coins climbing the rankings by volume and market cap. As regulations increase, capital is rotating towards assets built to preserve the holder’s autonomy.
Europe’s push gains pace
All of this is playing out against a busy year for crypto regulation in Europe. In 2025, the EU went from talking about rules to actually enforcing them. MiCA officially kicked in, forcing crypto firms to get licensed, get their disclosures in place, and rethink which tokens they can offer users.
Stablecoins have been under scrutiny, with regulators asking platforms to phase out non-compliant options. At the same time, new rules around cybersecurity and operational risk took effect. Anti-money laundering bodies made it clear that crypto is now a priority area too.
There’s also new sanctions and stricter oversight. Europe’s crypto market is now a heavily controlled arena.
This isn’t new…
U.S sanctions on Tornado Cash turned a niche crypto tool into a big debate about privacy and control. Since then, exchanges have delisted privacy coins like Monero because compliance got harder.
Japan banned privacy coins years ago and other countries followed with restrictive rules. Interest moves elsewhere when access is restricted. Even recent court decisions around Tornado Cash were followed by attention on privacy coins.
That’s why this matters. Europe is pulling the strings tighter, and privacy coins are rising again. Buterin’s warning about leaving “no space” for controversial tools fits into this pattern.
When systems squeeze out privacy, people look for it even harder, don’t they?
$ETH
Key industry stakeholders have time and again pushed back strongly against rules that leave no breathing space for crypto. The latest to have his say is Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
What’s happening?
Buterin has strong opinions against the European Union’s Digital Services Act (DSA). In a recent X post, the Ethereum co-founder warned that the law risks creating a digital environment where there is “no space” for controversial ideas or products to exist at all.
“I hope European govs do not go this way, and instead take a Pirate Party approach of user empowerment.”
While the DSA aims to make online platforms safer and more accountable, Buterin argued that this philosophy is flawed. He believes the problem isn’t that unpopular or extreme ideas exist, but that algorithms often amplify them at scale. Trying to erase such ideas entirely, he said, risks encouraging excessive surveillance and enforcement.
“There is a real opportunity to reaffirm freedom of speech in a unique and different way, that emphasizes pluralism and pushes against unbalanced attempts to manipulate the discourse…”
Privacy coins take the lead
Source: Artemis
This control and freedom discord is starting to impact the numbers. While most crypto sectors have struggled this year, privacy coins are moving in the opposite direction.
In fact, data from Artemis revealed that they are the best-performing sector YTD, far outperforming everything else.
Source: TradingView
While Bitcoin [BTC] remains the market’s anchor, its performance this cycle has been relatively restrained.
Over the same period that Bitcoin has struggled to push higher, Zcash [ZEC] has surged by more than 700%. Monero [XMR] has held its ground with far less downside too.
Source: Coinmarketcap
Trading activity is rising as well, with privacy coins climbing the rankings by volume and market cap. As regulations increase, capital is rotating towards assets built to preserve the holder’s autonomy.
Europe’s push gains pace
All of this is playing out against a busy year for crypto regulation in Europe. In 2025, the EU went from talking about rules to actually enforcing them. MiCA officially kicked in, forcing crypto firms to get licensed, get their disclosures in place, and rethink which tokens they can offer users.
Stablecoins have been under scrutiny, with regulators asking platforms to phase out non-compliant options. At the same time, new rules around cybersecurity and operational risk took effect. Anti-money laundering bodies made it clear that crypto is now a priority area too.
There’s also new sanctions and stricter oversight. Europe’s crypto market is now a heavily controlled arena.
This isn’t new…
U.S sanctions on Tornado Cash turned a niche crypto tool into a big debate about privacy and control. Since then, exchanges have delisted privacy coins like Monero because compliance got harder.
Japan banned privacy coins years ago and other countries followed with restrictive rules. Interest moves elsewhere when access is restricted. Even recent court decisions around Tornado Cash were followed by attention on privacy coins.
That’s why this matters. Europe is pulling the strings tighter, and privacy coins are rising again. Buterin’s warning about leaving “no space” for controversial tools fits into this pattern.
When systems squeeze out privacy, people look for it even harder, don’t they?
$ETH
Assessing the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on prices in 2025
The performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs has become one of the most important factors influencing the cryptocurrency market over the past year. Although approved in January 2024, it will not be until 2025 that the scale of ETF inflows and trading volume will be large enough to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price movements.
This reality also raises concerns about the role of large institutions in regulating the market through ETF flows. In recent weeks, the trend of capital withdrawal from Bitcoin ETFs has become increasingly evident, significantly limiting the momentum for price recovery. At the same time, Bitcoin continues to maintain a high correlation with the S&P 500 index, reflecting the fact that this asset is increasingly being traded according to the logic of the traditional stock market.
Data shows that institutional liquidity in Bitcoin has plummeted, from over $163 billion at its October peak to around $116 billion. In December alone, Bitcoin ETFs only recorded seven sessions with positive inflows, while capital outflows have been continuous since December 18th.
Selling pressure from ETFs and large investor groups has caused Bitcoin to experience a volatile fourth quarter. The price fell by approximately 23% compared to the beginning of the third quarter, marking the sharpest decline since 2022. The unstable macroeconomic environment and large-scale liquidations continue to erode market confidence.
Meanwhile, the surge in silver and gold is raising expectations of a new liquidity cycle. Many experts believe that if money flows back into riskier assets in 2026, Bitcoin ETFs could play a key role in triggering a new recovery cycle for the cryptocurrency market.
The performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs has become one of the most important factors influencing the cryptocurrency market over the past year. Although approved in January 2024, it will not be until 2025 that the scale of ETF inflows and trading volume will be large enough to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price movements.
This reality also raises concerns about the role of large institutions in regulating the market through ETF flows. In recent weeks, the trend of capital withdrawal from Bitcoin ETFs has become increasingly evident, significantly limiting the momentum for price recovery. At the same time, Bitcoin continues to maintain a high correlation with the S&P 500 index, reflecting the fact that this asset is increasingly being traded according to the logic of the traditional stock market.
Data shows that institutional liquidity in Bitcoin has plummeted, from over $163 billion at its October peak to around $116 billion. In December alone, Bitcoin ETFs only recorded seven sessions with positive inflows, while capital outflows have been continuous since December 18th.
Selling pressure from ETFs and large investor groups has caused Bitcoin to experience a volatile fourth quarter. The price fell by approximately 23% compared to the beginning of the third quarter, marking the sharpest decline since 2022. The unstable macroeconomic environment and large-scale liquidations continue to erode market confidence.
Meanwhile, the surge in silver and gold is raising expectations of a new liquidity cycle. Many experts believe that if money flows back into riskier assets in 2026, Bitcoin ETFs could play a key role in triggering a new recovery cycle for the cryptocurrency market.
Top 7 Token Unlocks of the Upcoming Week
The following tokens with the largest unlock amount will be unlocked next week:
$SUI - $78.90M
$BEAT - $43.97M
$ENA - $20.08M
$EIGEN - $14.44M
$COCA - $12.99M
$KMNO - $11.00M
$OP - $8.85M
The following tokens with the largest unlock amount will be unlocked next week:
$SUI - $78.90M
$BEAT - $43.97M
$ENA - $20.08M
$EIGEN - $14.44M
$COCA - $12.99M
$KMNO - $11.00M
$OP - $8.85M
Trading wallets of VCs in December, funds are still alive and well through the storm
Wintermute profit of ~$3.17M in 30 days, ROI of ~662%, win rate of 50%. If you look at 90 days, the profit is only $16K, showing that although the gauze was removed in December, WM has also been under great pressure in the past 3 months.
Dragonfly has a win rate of 100%, ROI of 138–373%, PnL +$3.94M.
Pantera, Spartan, and the rest of the VCs have negligible PnL, with an ROI of 2,000–5,000% but a PnL of only a few thousand dollars
Note that these are the wallets that Nansen tracked, there may still be other wallets that have not been labeled, so they are only for reference, and this interest does not include the number of funds tokens unlocked when investing in seed rounds in previous years.
$BTC $ETH
Wintermute profit of ~$3.17M in 30 days, ROI of ~662%, win rate of 50%. If you look at 90 days, the profit is only $16K, showing that although the gauze was removed in December, WM has also been under great pressure in the past 3 months.
Dragonfly has a win rate of 100%, ROI of 138–373%, PnL +$3.94M.
Pantera, Spartan, and the rest of the VCs have negligible PnL, with an ROI of 2,000–5,000% but a PnL of only a few thousand dollars
Note that these are the wallets that Nansen tracked, there may still be other wallets that have not been labeled, so they are only for reference, and this interest does not include the number of funds tokens unlocked when investing in seed rounds in previous years.
$BTC $ETH
Bitcoin’s fractal suggests the next cycle bottom may form around October 4, 2026.
Based on historical cycle symmetry, the most favorable time window for accumulation would likely be concentrated between:
October 6, 2026 and October 16, 2026
Estimated price range:
$41,500 – $45,000
This is not a fixed rule, nor a deterministic price forecast.
It represents a fractal rhyme of market cycles — something Bitcoin has historically respected more often than ignored.
Markets do not repeat exactly —
but they rhyme with an uncomfortable frequency
$BTC
Based on historical cycle symmetry, the most favorable time window for accumulation would likely be concentrated between:
October 6, 2026 and October 16, 2026
Estimated price range:
$41,500 – $45,000
This is not a fixed rule, nor a deterministic price forecast.
It represents a fractal rhyme of market cycles — something Bitcoin has historically respected more often than ignored.
Markets do not repeat exactly —
but they rhyme with an uncomfortable frequency
$BTC
Cryptocurrency market sentiment remains at an "extremely fearful" level for the 14th consecutive day.
Crypto market sentiment continued to sink deeper into "extreme fear" on Friday, marking a 14-day streak of negative sentiment.
According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the sentiment score dropped another 3 points to 20/100 on December 26th. This "extreme fear" streak, which began on December 13th, is considered one of the gloomiest periods since the index's launch in 2018.
Psychological pressure began to mount in early October, as concerns surrounding US-China trade tensions resurfaced, leading to a nearly $500 billion drop in market capitalization on October 10th alone. Furthermore, the risk of the Fed pausing its interest rate cutting cycle in the first quarter of 2026 continued to weigh on investor expectations. Some even warned that Bitcoin could retreat to the $70,000 range if monetary policy remains tight.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $88,650, down nearly 30% from its all-time high set in October. Notably, the current level of pessimism is even lower than during the FTX crash in 2022.
Data from Alphractal shows a sharp decline in cryptocurrency searches and discussions, reflecting a clear pullback by retail investors, while institutional money flows remain stable through spot ETFs.
Crypto market sentiment continued to sink deeper into "extreme fear" on Friday, marking a 14-day streak of negative sentiment.
According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the sentiment score dropped another 3 points to 20/100 on December 26th. This "extreme fear" streak, which began on December 13th, is considered one of the gloomiest periods since the index's launch in 2018.
Psychological pressure began to mount in early October, as concerns surrounding US-China trade tensions resurfaced, leading to a nearly $500 billion drop in market capitalization on October 10th alone. Furthermore, the risk of the Fed pausing its interest rate cutting cycle in the first quarter of 2026 continued to weigh on investor expectations. Some even warned that Bitcoin could retreat to the $70,000 range if monetary policy remains tight.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $88,650, down nearly 30% from its all-time high set in October. Notably, the current level of pessimism is even lower than during the FTX crash in 2022.
Data from Alphractal shows a sharp decline in cryptocurrency searches and discussions, reflecting a clear pullback by retail investors, while institutional money flows remain stable through spot ETFs.
$LINK Analysis : Chainlink’s breakout odds – What next after large wallets absorb supply?
Journalist
Edited By: Jibin Mathew George
Posted: December 27, 2025
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Large Chainlink withdrawals from Binance recently revealed a clear shift towards long-term holding. Especially as big wallets reduce exchange supply and ease selling pressure. In fact, a newly created wallet removed over 329k LINK, immediately reducing liquid supply.
At the same time, the Chainlink Reserve added nearly 90k LINK, pushing total holdings above 1.32M LINK. Together, these moves drain exchange-side availability from two directions.
However, the price has not reacted impulsively to the same – A sign of deliberate accumulation rather than speculative chasing.
Moreover, reduced exchange balances often dampen sell pressure during pullbacks. As supply tightens, sellers lose leverage.
Consequently, downside extensions struggle to gain momentum. Such a setup favors stability and patience.
Over time, persistent absorption tends to pressure price upwards, especially when demand remains consistent under the resistance level.
Chainlink challenges channel ceiling after demand bounce
Chainlink, once upon a time, was trading within a demand zone – One where buyers repeatedly stepped in to defend structure. This zone halted the broader decline and forced price stabilization.
From there, LINK rebounded towards the descending channel resistance near $13.20–$13.50. And yet, the structure still seemed to respect overhead levels on the price charts.
For LINK, the $14.65 resistance remains the first upside hurdle, followed by $16.66, which previously acted as a distribution pivot.
Above that, $20 stands as the macro reclaim level. Meanwhile, failure to hold above $12 would reopen downside risk towards demand.
Therefore, acceptance above channel resistance might carry far more weight than short-lived breakout wicks. Such a phase often precedes trend transitions when demand persists.
Source: TradingView
Buy-side absorption persists under overhead resistance
Spot taker CVD over the 90-day period seemed to be firmly positive, indicating sustained buy-side aggression despite sideways price action.
At press time, the indicator continued to show taker buy dominance, meaning market buyers might be consistently absorbing sell orders.
This behavior matters because it highlights accumulation, rather than distribution. However, the price did not surge – Confirmation of patience instead of hesitation.
Additionally, the absence of sharp CVD reversals suggested that buyers have maintained conviction, without relying on leverage. As a result, the selling pressure has struggled to expand. Instead, the price might be compressing into tighter ranges.
Over time, persistent buy-side absorption beneath resistance often increases the probability of a directional breakout.
Source: CryptoQuant
Short liquidations outweigh longs as pressure fades
Finally, liquidation data confirmed fading downside stress across derivatives markets. On 26 December, total short liquidations reached approximately $59.46k, while long liquidations totalled just $10.55k.
Binance alone accounted for $26.94k in short liquidations, compared to $9.89k on the long side.
Bybit recorded $24.76k in shorts liquidated, while long liquidations remained minimal across venues. This imbalance showed that sellers absorbed most forced exits. Meanwhile, longs stayed largely intact, signaling confidence rather than panic.
Moreover, liquidation spikes stayed modest, confirming controlled leverage. This environment might just favor stabilization, while reducing the risk of cascading downside moves.
Source: CoinGlass
In conclusion, Chainlink seemed to be trading in a key zone between $11.75 support and $14.65 resistance. Exchange outflows and reserve accumulation have been reducing selling pressure too.
Price consolidation below resistance underlined balance, not weakness. While buyers have continued to step in, liquidation data highlighted limited downside risk. As long as LINK holds above $11.75, the downside will remain contained.
A clean move above $14.65 would likely allow the price to push towards $16.66, with supply conditions supporting further upside rather than a deeper pullback.
$LINK
Edited By: Jibin Mathew George
Posted: December 27, 2025
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Large Chainlink withdrawals from Binance recently revealed a clear shift towards long-term holding. Especially as big wallets reduce exchange supply and ease selling pressure. In fact, a newly created wallet removed over 329k LINK, immediately reducing liquid supply.
At the same time, the Chainlink Reserve added nearly 90k LINK, pushing total holdings above 1.32M LINK. Together, these moves drain exchange-side availability from two directions.
However, the price has not reacted impulsively to the same – A sign of deliberate accumulation rather than speculative chasing.
Moreover, reduced exchange balances often dampen sell pressure during pullbacks. As supply tightens, sellers lose leverage.
Consequently, downside extensions struggle to gain momentum. Such a setup favors stability and patience.
Over time, persistent absorption tends to pressure price upwards, especially when demand remains consistent under the resistance level.
Chainlink challenges channel ceiling after demand bounce
Chainlink, once upon a time, was trading within a demand zone – One where buyers repeatedly stepped in to defend structure. This zone halted the broader decline and forced price stabilization.
From there, LINK rebounded towards the descending channel resistance near $13.20–$13.50. And yet, the structure still seemed to respect overhead levels on the price charts.
For LINK, the $14.65 resistance remains the first upside hurdle, followed by $16.66, which previously acted as a distribution pivot.
Above that, $20 stands as the macro reclaim level. Meanwhile, failure to hold above $12 would reopen downside risk towards demand.
Therefore, acceptance above channel resistance might carry far more weight than short-lived breakout wicks. Such a phase often precedes trend transitions when demand persists.
Source: TradingView
Buy-side absorption persists under overhead resistance
Spot taker CVD over the 90-day period seemed to be firmly positive, indicating sustained buy-side aggression despite sideways price action.
At press time, the indicator continued to show taker buy dominance, meaning market buyers might be consistently absorbing sell orders.
This behavior matters because it highlights accumulation, rather than distribution. However, the price did not surge – Confirmation of patience instead of hesitation.
Additionally, the absence of sharp CVD reversals suggested that buyers have maintained conviction, without relying on leverage. As a result, the selling pressure has struggled to expand. Instead, the price might be compressing into tighter ranges.
Over time, persistent buy-side absorption beneath resistance often increases the probability of a directional breakout.
Source: CryptoQuant
Short liquidations outweigh longs as pressure fades
Finally, liquidation data confirmed fading downside stress across derivatives markets. On 26 December, total short liquidations reached approximately $59.46k, while long liquidations totalled just $10.55k.
Binance alone accounted for $26.94k in short liquidations, compared to $9.89k on the long side.
Bybit recorded $24.76k in shorts liquidated, while long liquidations remained minimal across venues. This imbalance showed that sellers absorbed most forced exits. Meanwhile, longs stayed largely intact, signaling confidence rather than panic.
Moreover, liquidation spikes stayed modest, confirming controlled leverage. This environment might just favor stabilization, while reducing the risk of cascading downside moves.
Source: CoinGlass
In conclusion, Chainlink seemed to be trading in a key zone between $11.75 support and $14.65 resistance. Exchange outflows and reserve accumulation have been reducing selling pressure too.
Price consolidation below resistance underlined balance, not weakness. While buyers have continued to step in, liquidation data highlighted limited downside risk. As long as LINK holds above $11.75, the downside will remain contained.
A clean move above $14.65 would likely allow the price to push towards $16.66, with supply conditions supporting further upside rather than a deeper pullback.
$LINK
$HYPE Technical Analysis
Hyperliquid (HYPE) is still trading below the 20-day EMA ($26.72), however, the bears have been unable to push the price below the $22.19 support zone.
Bulls will take advantage of this situation to try to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If successful, the HYPE/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA at $32.22 and then the previous breakout zone at $35.50.
Conversely, if the Hyperliquid price reverses and falls from the 20-day EMA, this indicates that bears are still in control. In that case, the likelihood of a break below $22.19 increases, and the pair could plummet to the October 10th low of $20.82.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) is still trading below the 20-day EMA ($26.72), however, the bears have been unable to push the price below the $22.19 support zone.
Bulls will take advantage of this situation to try to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If successful, the HYPE/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA at $32.22 and then the previous breakout zone at $35.50.
Conversely, if the Hyperliquid price reverses and falls from the 20-day EMA, this indicates that bears are still in control. In that case, the likelihood of a break below $22.19 increases, and the pair could plummet to the October 10th low of $20.82.
$SOL Technical Analysis
The bulls are attempting to initiate a rebound for Solana (SOL), however, the long wicks indicate strong selling pressure at higher price levels.
If the price continues to fall and breaks below $116, it will confirm the resumption of the downtrend. The SOL/USDT pair could slide to $108 and eventually the key support zone at $95.
The first sign of strength would be a breakout and close above the 20-day EMA at $127, indicating that the bears are losing control. At that point, Solana's price could rise to the 50-day SMA at $135, followed by $147.
The bulls are attempting to initiate a rebound for Solana (SOL), however, the long wicks indicate strong selling pressure at higher price levels.
If the price continues to fall and breaks below $116, it will confirm the resumption of the downtrend. The SOL/USDT pair could slide to $108 and eventually the key support zone at $95.
The first sign of strength would be a breakout and close above the 20-day EMA at $127, indicating that the bears are losing control. At that point, Solana's price could rise to the 50-day SMA at $135, followed by $147.
$XRP quick Technical Analysis
XRP continues to fluctuate within a descending channel pattern, however, the bulls are attempting to initiate a recovery.
Buyers need to push the price above the 20-day EMA at $1.93 to signal strength. At that point, the XRP/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.09, and then move towards the descending trend line.
Conversely, if XRP reverses downwards from the current level or from the moving averages, it indicates that bears remain active at high price levels. The pair could fall to the key support level at $1.61. If this level is broken, the price could drop to $1.25.
XRP continues to fluctuate within a descending channel pattern, however, the bulls are attempting to initiate a recovery.
Buyers need to push the price above the 20-day EMA at $1.93 to signal strength. At that point, the XRP/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.09, and then move towards the descending trend line.
Conversely, if XRP reverses downwards from the current level or from the moving averages, it indicates that bears remain active at high price levels. The pair could fall to the key support level at $1.61. If this level is broken, the price could drop to $1.25.
$BNB quick Technical Analysis
BNB has reached the ascending trend line – a key point to watch in the short term
Bulls will attempt to consolidate their position by pushing the BNB price above the moving averages. If successful, the BNB/USDT pair could challenge the upper resistance level at $928.
Conversely, if the price continues to weaken and closes below the ascending trend line, it would indicate that bears have the upper hand. In that case, the pair could slide to the strong support zone at $790, where buyers are expected to return.
BNB has reached the ascending trend line – a key point to watch in the short term
Bulls will attempt to consolidate their position by pushing the BNB price above the moving averages. If successful, the BNB/USDT pair could challenge the upper resistance level at $928.
Conversely, if the price continues to weaken and closes below the ascending trend line, it would indicate that bears have the upper hand. In that case, the pair could slide to the strong support zone at $790, where buyers are expected to return.
$ETH quick Technical Analysis
Ether (ETH) is currently trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern, reflecting a state of equilibrium between supply and demand.
If the price of ETH breaks above the moving averages, the next stopping point could be the resistance line of the pattern. Bears are expected to defend aggressively here, because a breakout and close above the resistance line could open up room for a rise to $4,000.
Conversely, if the price reverses and breaks below the support line, it indicates that bears have overpowered bulls. In that case, the ETH/USDT pair could fall to $2,623 and then to $2,373.
Ether (ETH) is currently trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern, reflecting a state of equilibrium between supply and demand.
If the price of ETH breaks above the moving averages, the next stopping point could be the resistance line of the pattern. Bears are expected to defend aggressively here, because a breakout and close above the resistance line could open up room for a rise to $4,000.
Conversely, if the price reverses and breaks below the support line, it indicates that bears have overpowered bulls. In that case, the ETH/USDT pair could fall to $2,623 and then to $2,373.
$BTC quick Technical Analysis
Bitcoin reversed its upward trend from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $88,593 on Friday, indicating that negative sentiment is prevailing.
A key support level to watch is $84,000. If this level is breached, Bitcoin's price could continue its downward trend. The BTC/USDT pair risks plummeting to $80,600, followed by strong support at $74,508.
Conversely, if the price closes above the 20-day EMA, the $84,000–$94,589 trading range will be triggered. Buyers need to push the price up and maintain it above $94,589 to signal strength. At that point, the pair could head towards the psychological $100,000 mark.
Bitcoin reversed its upward trend from the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $88,593 on Friday, indicating that negative sentiment is prevailing.
A key support level to watch is $84,000. If this level is breached, Bitcoin's price could continue its downward trend. The BTC/USDT pair risks plummeting to $80,600, followed by strong support at $74,508.
Conversely, if the price closes above the 20-day EMA, the $84,000–$94,589 trading range will be triggered. Buyers need to push the price up and maintain it above $94,589 to signal strength. At that point, the pair could head towards the psychological $100,000 mark.
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