GEMINI

Market activity shows strong time based pressure. Even after #Bitcoin rebounded from the November 22 low to around $92.7k, realized losses kept rising. The 30 day #SMA of Entity Adjusted Realized Loss reached about $555M per day, the highest since the FTX collapse. This means losses are being realized during strength. Top buyers are exiting on rebounds instead of holding, showing frustration and reduced conviction.

Selling pressure from Long Term Holders continues to ease, even though overall LTH supply is still trending lower. The sharp distribution seen in Q3-Q4 2025 has clearly cooled, signaling a slowdown in long term selling.

For a sustainable upside move, the market needs LTH supply to turn positive again. That shift occurs when maturation supply overtakes LTH spending, a structure last seen in Aug 2022-Sep 2023 and Mar 2024-Jul 2025, both of which led to stronger, more durable recoveries.

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has shifted from greed to neutral 👀

#Bitcoin is trading around $97K and on chain models are starting to adjust. The Short Term Holder Cost Basis sits at $98.4K, showing recent buyers are slightly underwater, making this a key short term level. Active Investors Mean at $87.8K confirms most active participants are still in profit.

The True Market Mean at $81.1K marks a strong underlying support zone. Realized Price at $56.2K highlights continued long term holder strength. Overall, price is facing short term pressure while the broader structure remains strong.

A strong increase in first time participants is becoming visible across #Ethereum’s on chain data. Month over month activity retention shows a clear rise in the “New” cohort, meaning a growing number of wallets are interacting with the network for the first time over the past 30 days.

Recent activity is not simply existing users becoming more active but a fresh inflow of new participants entering the ecosystem. If these wallets remain engaged beyond initial transactions, it could support stronger network effects and more durable growth. For now, retention will be the key metric to confirm whether this influx represents lasting adoption or short term interest.

Despite Ethereum outperforming #Bitcoin since the January lows, on chain data shows a clear difference in holder confidence. ETH is up 18.6 percent compared to BTC’s 13.3 percent gain, yet Ethereum’s SOPR remains below 1 at 0.992, meaning aggregated losses realized are still outweighing profits. Many ETH holders are using the rally as a chance to exit and reduce risk rather than commit to trend continuation.

Bitcoin tells the opposite story. With SOPR at 1.009 near the 97K level, BTC holders are comfortably realizing profits, a behavior typically associated with stronger conviction and healthier market structure. The contrast highlights BTC as the higher confidence trend, while #ETH still needs sustained demand and a SOPR flip above 1 to confirm that sentiment is truly shifting.

In the past six months, corporate #Bitcoin treasuries held by both public and private companies have expanded from roughly 854,000 BTC to about 1.11 million BTC. This net increase of nearly 260,000 BTC translates to an average monthly accumulation of around 43,000 BTC.

The data points to a consistent inflow of corporate capital into Bitcoin, signaling stronger balance sheet integration and long term conviction. Rather than reacting to short term price movements, companies appear to be positioning Bitcoin as a structural asset within their financial strategy.

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has shifted from neutral to greed 👀

Gold: $4644
Silver: $91.67

What you’re seeing isn’t just a commodity supercycle.. It’s a full blown currency collapse.

And for those who think this is bullish?

YOU’RE WRONG.

Last time this happened, stocks dropped 58%.

Here’s why I’m worried:

The dollar is losing value right in front of your eyes.

The bond market finally called the treasury's bluff.

Nobody believes the US can pay back $40T debt in real terms anymore.

For 40 years, treasuries were risk free.

But now… THEY ARE THE RISK.

Large players are dumping debt aggressively and forcing a re-pricing of the entire system.

They aren't buying metals to make money…

THE GOAL IS EXIT.

This is how it works:

Dump the bonds, spike the yields, force the Fed to panic-print to buy their own debt (Yield Curve Control).

Stocks rip higher, but it's just inflation.

You pay tax on "profits" that are useless.

Real estate freezes, prices stay high on paper, but nobody can afford the mortgage. Liquidity completely vanishes.

Once the psychology shifts, the velocity of money explodes.

People will dump paychecks immediately for anything tangible, like metals.

YOU NEED TO WATCH THE FLOWS.

Recent price action between $80K and $95K reflects a prolonged consolidation phase, shaped by the positioning of short term holders. Data from the Short Term Holder Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap reveals a heavy concentration of cost basis near current levels, creating persistent overhead supply. Rally attempts have repeatedly stalled as recent buyers sell into strength, keeping price capped despite multiple recovery efforts.

However, demand above $80K has remained resilient following the drawdown, providing a solid floor and limiting downside risk. This dynamic has resulted in price staying tightly anchored within the range. A decisive move will depend on whether demand can fully absorb remaining supply or if sellers regain control and force a breakdown.

The recent move across the top 500 cryptocurrencies caused the biggest short liquidation cascade seen since October 10. Rapid price expansion wiped out a large number of short positions, amplifying volatility and pushing the market higher as traders rushed to cover. This type of event usually reflects aggressive positioning and heightened uncertainty in the market.

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has moved from Fear to Neutral 👀

A prolonged period of calm has settled over #Bitcoin, with realized volatility now hovering around 23%. This degree of volatility compression is statistically rare and has historically marked the later stages of consolidation. In previous market cycles, similar conditions did not persist for long.

Once volatility reached these levels, price action often expanded rapidly, breaking out of tight ranges and catching many traders off guard. With volatility compressed near a critical threshold, the market appears to be setting up for a decisive move. While the breakout direction remains uncertain, the likelihood of heightened price action continues to increase as this low volatility phase extends.

Market data shows a renewed compression in #Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio, reaching levels not seen since October 2023.
This reflects low multiple realized profits and losses, pointing to a lack of strong conviction among sellers at current price levels. Distribution pressure remains limited, with participants showing restraint rather than urgency to exit.

Historically, this type of behavior is common during consolidation phases, where the market digests prior moves and waits for a clear trigger before committing to the next direction.

Over the last 24 hours, the crypto market saw 88,145 traders liquidated, pushing total liquidations to $181.91 million. The biggest individual liquidation was recorded on Hyperliquid, where a #BTCUSD position valued at $2.09 million was closed.

With an average realized price around $86,000, most spot #Bitcoin ETF inflows that entered after the October 2025 all time high are now at a loss. Over the same period, more than $6B has exited ETFs, marking the largest outflow since their approval, driven by a mix of profit taking and panic selling.

In the past two weeks, flows have started to stabilize, suggesting selling pressure is easing. With Bitcoin liquidity still thin at times, #ETF flows continue to have a strong impact on price action, making them a key metric to watch for sentiment shifts and potential trend changes.

Market behavior in early 2026 shows a clear slowdown in activity from long term holders compared to the intense spending seen in the latter half of 2025. Profit taking has eased to levels that are typically associated with shallow bear market phases.

This change points to rising uncertainty and a more defensive mindset among investors. Historically, this kind of environment often appears during pauses within a larger bull cycle, although it can also represent the initial stage of a deeper market downturn as confidence temporarily fades.

The flow of long held #Bitcoin into the market is losing strength. After a period of heavy distribution, net outflows have eased back from extreme levels, signaling that much of the older supply has already changed hands.

Buyers are gradually absorbing coins from long term holders, reducing the amount of supply sitting above current prices. With this overhang thinning out, overall market pressure appears more balanced.

Still Fear 👀