BigWhale Trading

🚨WARNING: China’s Treasury Dump Could Trigger a Market Shock in Days

China’s U.S. Treasury holdings just hit $683 billion — the lowest since 2008, down from a peak of $1.32 trillion in 2013. That’s nearly half their position sold off.
Acceleration in 2025:
Dumped ~$115 billion from Jan–Nov 2025 alone
→ Over 14% reduction in 11 months
Where is the money going? Gold.
PBOC has bought gold for 15 straight months
Official reserves: 74.19 million ounces (~$370 billion at current prices)
Some analysts estimate real holdings (including unreported SAFE purchases) could be double that — potentially making China the #2 gold holder globally (behind only the U.S.)
Broader context:
Several BRICS nations are quietly diversifying out of U.S. debt
Gold’s surge to $5,500+ earlier this year reflects a repricing of trust in the dollar system
This is not routine rebalancing — it’s a structural shift in global capital flows, the biggest since the end of the Cold War.
Bottom line:
If China accelerates sales (or others follow), Treasury yields spike → liquidity tightens → risk assets (stocks, crypto) face sharp pressure.
The next few days/weeks are high-risk for volatility.
I’ve tracked macro for 20+ years and called the last three major tops/bottoms publicly.
Position defensively. Notifications on — I’ll share the next signal before it hits mainstream.
Don’t be caught on the wrong side of history.

🚨Next time you read about Global M2 correlation with $BTC, remember, it’s just a narrative.

The chart clearly shows that Global M2 can rise while Bitcoin enters a bear market. M2 can stay flat, and in short periods it may even decline slightly.
But generally speaking, M2 ALWAYS trends higher.
That’s simply the monetary system we live in.
But here’s the thing...
M2 IS NOT LIQUIDITY...
But when there is liquidity, it doesn't neccesarily mean that it will instantly flow into Bitcoin.
In recent months, I’ve seen many permabulls dismiss the 4-year halving cycle while pushing nonesense failed narratives:
ETFs/institutions, US BTC reserve, Global M2, the business cycle…
I guess Satoshi just randomly chose 4 years for the halving schedule, right?
People should ask themselves:
Why was it designed that way?
Isn’t the halving one of the core fundamentals behind Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior?
Many expert researchers of global liquidity cycles have shown how it tends to last 3 to 5 years, particularly USD liquidity cycles driven by bond market structure. (in simple terms)
So when the next bull market begins, pay attention to the new narratives, because they will appear. They always do, especially after a couple of years of rising prices and peak euphoria.

🚨Bitcoin Lows Likely In – Short-Term Metrics Align

On-chain signals point to capitulation exhaustion:
1-hour chart: Supply & profit metrics almost converged
10-minute chart: Metrics fully converged
Glassnode low: $63,000 (Feb 5) — missed final wick to $60,000
~3% of supply now clustered in $60k–$63k zone (last major cost basis absorbed)
This tight convergence on short timeframes + heavy loss creation = classic bottoming structure.
History shows these setups often mark the end of flush phases and precede reversal.
Bottom line: High-probability local low in place. Structure is aligned for upside.

🚨Bitcoin Supply in Profit/Loss: The Chart Tells a Clear Story

This long-term chart (from Glassnode) shows BTC price overlaid with circulating supply, supply in profit (blue), and supply in loss (red) from 2010 to 2026.
Key observations in 2026 context:
Supply in profit (blue) has dropped sharply from recent highs, now overlapping heavily with supply in loss (red) — a classic sign of capitulation compression.
The red area (holders underwater) has expanded significantly in the latest drawdown, mirroring previous cycle lows (2018, 2022) where profit/loss convergence preceded major reversals.
Price wick (likely to ~$60k) pushed more supply into loss, creating the final exhaustion cluster — common at structural bottoms.
What history shows at similar setups:
When profit/loss lines squeeze tightly near lows → weak hands flush, unrealized losses peak, selling pressure exhausts.
Past examples (2015, 2018–2019, 2022) saw this convergence right before multi-month or multi-year uptrends.
Bottom line (Feb 2026):
The chart is flashing a high-probability exhaustion signal.
Supply in profit/loss convergence + heavy recent loss creation = the structural foundation for a reversal is forming.
Not guaranteed timing, but the pattern is textbook for cycle lows.
Markets bottom when hope is gone and data aligns — this is what alignment looks like. Stay patient.

🚨HERE’S WHY BITCOIN IS DUMPING BELOW $70K – THE REAL REASON

Bitcoin no longer trades like a scarce, on-chain asset. The original thesis (21M cap + no rehypothecation) broke the moment Wall Street layered derivatives on top:
Cash-settled futures
Perpetual swaps
Options
Spot ETFs
Prime broker lending
Wrapped BTC
Total return swaps
Result: Synthetic supply became theoretically infinite for price discovery. One real BTC can now back multiple claims at once — classic fractional-reserve mechanics in disguise.
Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR) explains the action:
When paper supply overwhelms real supply, price stops responding to demand. It follows positioning, hedging, and liquidation flows instead.
Wall Street’s playbook:
Short into rallies
Force cascading liquidations
Cover lower
Repeat
This isn’t retail panic or weak hands — it’s structural inventory manufacturing in a derivatives-dominated market.
Gold, silver, oil, equities all went through the same shift once derivatives took over. Bitcoin is now in the same boat.
Bottom line:
Scarcity is gone in price discovery. The move isn’t “normal” — it’s the system working exactly as designed.
I’ve called major BTC turns for over a decade.
Notifications on — I’ll flag the next leg before it’s obvious.
Don’t ignore this shift.

🚨China’s Deflation Spiral Hits Historic Length – No End in Sight

China’s GDP deflator fell -0.7% in Q4 2025 — the 11th straight quarterly decline, the longest streak in at least 30 years. The country has now been in outright deflation for 3 full years, the most prolonged period since opening its economy in the late 1970s.
Quick facts that stand out:
Post-2008: deflation lasted only 2 quarters
Producer prices (PPI): -1.4% YoY in January 2026 — 40th consecutive month of factory-gate deflation
Consumer demand remains crushed by the ongoing property crisis
Overcapacity is extreme: factories produce far more than domestic buyers can absorb → aggressive price cuts to stay alive
This is textbook deflationary spiral: weak demand → falling prices → delayed spending → deeper weakness. Beijing’s stimulus has so far failed to break the cycle.
Controversial take:
Many analysts still call this “transitory” or “manageable.” History says otherwise — prolonged deflation is one of the hardest economic traps to escape, especially with high debt and a property sector in structural decline. Ignoring it risks turning Japan-style stagnation into China’s new reality.
The numbers don’t lie: this is no longer a blip — it’s the deepest, longest deflationary episode in modern Chinese history.
And it’s getting worse, not better. FOLLOW ME NOW!

🚨JUST IN: Insider Selling Is Accelerating – And It's Getting Ugly

Insider activity in early February 2026 shows a clear trend: heavy selling across multiple stocks, with executives, directors, and major owners offloading significant shares (often via option exercises followed by sales or direct disposals).
Notable examples from recent SEC Form 4 filings (Feb 10–12, 2026):
FIG (Figma?): CTO and General Counsel sold millions in value.
ROKU: CEO/Chairman Anthony Wood sold 50,000 shares (~$4.5M).
ON (onsemi): CEO sold 20,000 shares; Co-Chair exercised and sold large blocks.
SITM (SiTime): Multiple insiders (including major holders) sold substantial positions.
ARW (Arrow Electronics): President and SVP sold after option exercises.
ICH R (Ichor): Director exercised and sold over 50,000 shares.
NPWR / NPEH (multiple entities): 10% owners sold tens of thousands of shares.
Several were proposed sales or post-exercise dumps, often at prices well above recent averages.
What this means:
Insiders (those with the best inside view) are reducing exposure aggressively while the market hovers near highs. This isn't isolated — it's broad and increasing in February 2026, echoing patterns seen at prior tops.
Bottom line:
When "smart money" sells heavily, it's a warning sign. Not always immediate doom, but it raises the risk of distribution and potential downside.
I've tracked these flows for years — heavy selling like this rarely happens at bottoms.
Stay cautious, especially with leverage.
Notifications on — I'll share more breakdowns as the data rolls in. Don't be the last to see the exit signs.

🚨History Rhymes: Mega-Cap Concentration + Extreme US
Dominance = Fragility

When a few mega-caps drive almost all index gains, the bull market looks strong on the surface but is structurally brittle underneath. That’s not how durable rallies end — it’s how they become vulnerable.
US equities vs. rest of world remain at extreme relative dominance levels (near multi-decade highs). That imbalance has barely started to mean-revert.
At every cycle peak, the narrative shifts to “this time is different” — sophisticated stories explaining why concentration is permanent and old valuation rules are obsolete. History shows it never ends well.
One-sided positioning doesn’t require a massive catalyst to flip — a small trigger is enough for rotation to accelerate.
Where I’m watching capital flow next:
Emerging markets (under-owned, undervalued vs. US)
Metals & mining (supply constraints + demand tailwinds)
Energy (structural under-investment)
Broad commodities (real assets in a de-globalizing world)
Regime shifts feel chaotic and painful in real time.
That discomfort is precisely what creates the largest opportunities for those positioned ahead of the crowd.
The question isn’t what just peaked — it’s where the next leadership emerges.
Stay focused there.

🚨S&P 500 vs Put/Call Ratio: The Pattern Is Repeating – And It’s Bearish

The chart shows a consistent, ugly correlation:
Jan 2024: P/C ~1.2 → S&P dumped
Apr 2024: P/C ~1.2 → S&P dumped
Aug 2024: P/C ~1.1 → S&P dumped
Apr 2025: P/C ~1.1 → S&P dumped
Every single time the put/call ratio spiked to ~1.1–1.2, the S&P rolled over hard.
Current setup (Feb 2026):
Put/Call ratio back near ~1.1 (highest since the big crash)
S&P still flat / near highs → no dump priced in yet
Mechanics in simple terms:
High P/C = massive put buying (fear hedging)
Dealers/market makers sell those puts → become short puts
To hedge short puts → dealers sell S&P futures/ETFs aggressively
Result: constant downward pressure on the index
If the ratio stays elevated:
Selling flow persists
Any slip → hedging intensifies → feedback loop risk rises
Bottom line:
The pattern has been near-perfect.
Put/Call at multi-month highs + S&P still complacent = classic pre-dump setup.
I’ve tracked macro for 10+ years and nailed major tops (incl. Oct BTC ATH).
Notifications on — I’ll flag the break before it’s obvious.
This one looks very familiar… and very bad.

🚨Crypto vs Stocks: Fear Divergence = Opportunity

Current levels (Feb 2026):
Crypto Fear & Greed: 9 → Extreme Fear
Stocks Fear & Greed: 36 → Moderate Fear
Key takeaway:
Crypto is in deep capitulation while stocks are only mildly fearful. This asynchronous panic often signals macro transitions — capital rotates, one market flushes weak hands first, the other lags.
Historically, extreme crypto fear decoupled from stocks marks the cleansing phase before reversal probability spikes.
Bottom line:
Extreme crypto fear + moderate stock fear = classic high-conviction setup for crypto to lead the next leg up.
Divergence isn’t noise — it’s signal. Fear moves markets unevenly. That’s where the edge lives.
FOLLOW ME NOW!

🚨Crypto vs Stocks: Fear Divergence Signals Opportunity

Current readings (Feb 2026):
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 9 → Extreme Fear
Stocks Fear & Greed Index: 36 → Fear (moderate)
Key insight:
Crypto has plunged into deep emotional exhaustion while stocks remain only mildly fearful. This asynchronous sentiment is classic during macro transitions — capital rotates, liquidity shifts, and one asset class capitulates before the other.
Historically, extreme fear in crypto (especially when decoupled from stocks) marks phases where weak hands exit, positioning cleanses, and reversal probability rises sharply.
Bottom line:
The divergence isn’t random — it reflects unsynchronized cycles and repositioning.
Extreme crypto fear + moderate stock fear = high-conviction setup for crypto to lead the next recovery leg.
Fear isn’t uniform across markets. That’s exactly why it matters.FOLLOW ME!

🚨Unprecedented Divergence: S&P 500 Hiding Massive Internal Damage

Over the last 8 trading sessions, at least 115 S&P 500 stocks have dropped -7% or more in a single day — yet the index itself is only down -2% from its all-time high.
Historical context is alarming:
In prior instances where ≥115 stocks suffered -7%+ single-day drops within an 8-day window, the average subsequent S&P 500 drawdown was -34%.
The last comparable event near all-time highs occurred during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.
In 2008, this threshold was only hit after the index had already entered a bear market.
What this signals:
Extreme internal breadth destruction masked by index concentration (e.g., mega-cap resilience).
Markets are exhibiting classic late-cycle fragility — narrow leadership hiding widespread weakness.
This level of divergence near ATHs is extremely rare and historically precedes major corrections.
Bottom line:
The S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, but underneath it's experiencing damage on a scale not seen since the Dot-Com era.
Unprecedented doesn't mean safe — it means the setup is unusually dangerous.
Stay cautious. Breadth tells the real story.3,7 giâyFast

🚨BREAKING: BoJ Expected to Hike to 1% in April – Why This Could Dump Markets Hard

Bank of America now forecasts the Bank of Japan raising rates to 1.00% in April 2026 — a level not seen since the 1990s.
Why this matters globally (not just Japan):
Japan is the world’s largest creditor nation and a core liquidity engine for risk assets via the yen carry trade:
Borrow yen at near-zero rates
Convert to USD (or other currencies)
Buy global equities, bonds, crypto, etc.
This massive leverage has fueled global rallies for decades.
When rates rise to 1%:
Yen borrowing costs jump → carry trades unwind aggressively
Capital flows back to Japan (repatriation)
USD/JPY drops sharply
Global liquidity tightens fast
Risk appetite collapses
Crypto impact:
Bitcoin and crypto are extremely sensitive to liquidity shocks. A carry-trade unwind could trigger not just a short-term dip, but a sustained mid-term bearish pressure.
Bottom line:
This isn’t a “slow, irrelevant” economy story — it’s a structural unwind of one of the biggest leverage engines in finance.
Bearish charts + this catalyst = high risk of further downside.
I’ve called major BTC turns before.
Notifications on — I’ll flag the dump signal early.
Stay positioned carefully.

🚨WARNING: Next Friday Could Trigger the Biggest Dump of 2026

Polymarket now prices ~71–72% chance the Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs illegal next Friday.
No-win scenarios for markets:
Tariffs cancelled → massive revenue hole (~$600B claimed by Trump), refund battles, emergency fiscal scramble, retaliation risk → DUMP
Tariffs approved → global trade war escalation, higher input costs, inflation spike, retaliatory measures → DUMP
Either outcome looks ugly. The court decision removes the “maybe” and forces repricing.
Why this is different:
Markets have priced in uncertainty. A clear ruling removes the optionality — and volatility loves clarity when it’s bad.
Bottom line advice:
Be extremely careful with leverage right now
Reduce risk exposure heading into Friday
True bottoms form when fear peaks and “never buy again” sentiment dominates — not on hopium headlines
I’ve tracked macro for 10+ years and called major tops (including Oct BTC ATH).
The real move often comes when the crowd is most convinced it won’t.
Notifications on → I’ll flag the turn before headlines scream.
Don’t get caught as exit liquidity.

🚨 BITCOIN WILL NEVER 10x AGAIN — AND MOST PEOPLE AREN’T READY TO HEAR THAT

Here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Bitcoin is not doing another 10x from a cycle low.
That era is over.
Let’s look at the math — not the hopium.
Bottom → Top Gains Per Cycle:
2015–2017: +12,900%
2018–2021: +2,110%
2022–2025: +714%
Each cycle delivers roughly 1/5th to 1/3rd of the previous one.
That’s not opinion.
That’s diminishing returns at work.
Now project forward.
If the next cycle bottom forms around $37K–$50K, a realistic peak target sits around:
👉 $155K–$190K
That’s roughly 200–300% upside.
Strong?
Yes.
Life-changing 20x?
No.
And definitely not 100x.
Here’s why:
• Bitcoin is a $1T+ asset class now.
• Institutional capital smooths volatility.
• Liquidity depth increases each cycle.
• Reflexive blow-off expansions compress over time.
And most importantly:
~94% of all BTC has already been mined.
The “supply shock” narrative?
That shock happened three halvings ago.
We are no longer in price discovery from obscurity.
We are in monetization of a mature asset.
Bitcoin may still be the most asymmetric large-cap bet in global finance.
But asymmetry doesn’t mean fantasy.
The 100x phase ended when institutions arrived.
The people promising you $500K next cycle are selling you a version of Bitcoin that expired in 2021.
This doesn’t make Bitcoin weak.
It makes it evolving.
Early cycles were venture capital upside.
Future cycles are macro asset upside.
There’s a difference.
If you’re waiting for another 10x from here, you’re fighting math, market cap gravity, and liquidity structure.
Adapt — or stay disappointed.

🚨 “100% WIN RATE” TRADER JUST WENT ALL-IN WITH $190M — HOURS BEFORE A MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT

A trader nicknamed a “Trump insider” — known online for a so-called 100% win rate — just opened a $190 MILLION long position ahead of today’s major announcement.
No activity for 4 months.
Silence.
Now suddenly?
All-in.
Let’s be clear:
When someone stays inactive for months and then deploys nine figures right before a scheduled announcement…
That’s not random.
That’s conviction.
Or information.
Either way — it’s aggressive.
Does this guarantee anything?
No.
Markets don’t reward blind copying.
But size matters.
Timing matters.
And reactivation after months of dormancy definitely matters.
The real question:
Is this calculated positioning based on public probabilities?
Or is this trader front-running something bigger?
We’ll find out soon.
Volatility is almost guaranteed.
If the announcement disappoints, that $190M becomes exit liquidity.
If it exceeds expectations, shorts get annihilated.
Stay sharp.
Size like this doesn’t appear for no reason.
Just remember:
Whales can be early.
Whales can be wrong.
And whales can afford volatility most people can’t.
Manage risk accordingly.
Big money just placed a bet.
Now the market decides. 👀

🚨WARNING: The Real Risk Isn’t Inflation — It’s Deflationary Collapse

Latest CPI data (Feb 2026) confirms the Fed’s nightmare scenario is unfolding:
Headline CPI: 2.4% (below 2.5% expected) — lowest since pre-tariff April 2025
Core CPI: 2.5% (in line) — lowest in nearly 5 years, echoing COVID shutdown levels
Inflation is not reaccelerating — it’s cooling fast.
Meanwhile, the real economy is cracking:
Labor market softening
Credit card delinquencies surging
Corporate bankruptcies at 2008-style levels
The policy trap is set:
The Fed stayed hawkish too long → crushing demand while inflation collapses.
This is textbook deflationary spiral setup: tight policy + falling prices + weakening growth.
No clean exit:
Pivot now (cuts + printing) → signals panic & policy failure → confidence breaks → risk assets reprice violently
Stay hawkish longer → damage compounds → deeper recession
Every path leads to volatility. The longer they delay, the sharper the eventual move.
This isn’t “if” something breaks — it’s what breaks first.
I’ve tracked macro for 10+ years and called major turns accurately.
The next signal will be shared here.
Notifications on → don’t become exit liquidity.
Most will regret ignoring this setup. FOLLOW ME!

🚨US Households at Record Equity Exposure

Household equity holdings now represent 33% of S&P 500 market cap — the highest level ever recorded.
Highlights:
Nearly doubled since the 2020 low (~17%)
Exceeds the 2000 Dot-Com peak by +8 percentage points
Surpasses the prior historical high (~28% in the 1960s)
At the same time:
Cash allocations have fallen to near 26-year lows.
Implication:
Households are more concentrated in stocks than at any point in modern history, with minimal cash buffers.
This classic late-cycle positioning increases vulnerability to volatility and drawdowns.
Bottom line:
Americans have never owned this much equity relative to market size.
The setup screams euphoria — and historically narrow margin of safety.
Risk awareness seems dangerously low.
Notifications on — I'll flag the turns early. Stay positioned carefully.

🚨EXTREME FEAR = HISTORICAL BUYING OPPORTUNITY

Look at the Fear & Greed Index during past cycle lows — every major crash printed Extreme Fear:
2012 crash → BTC ~$7
Mt. Gox collapse (2014) → ~$400
2017–2018 bear market → ~$3,200
COVID flash crash (2020) → ~$4,000–$5,000
FTX implosion (2022) → ~$15,000–$16,000
Each time felt existential: “Bitcoin is finished.”
Each time, Extreme Fear marked the structural bottom — not the end.
Today (2026) we’re back in Extreme Fear territory again.
The key difference now:
Network hashrate at all-time highs
Institutional adoption (ETFs, corporate treasuries)
Sovereign mining programs underway
Spot ETFs providing regulated on-ramps
Deeper, more mature infrastructure overall
Fear spikes at lows because:
Weak hands get flushed
Over-leveraged positions liquidate
Narratives temporarily collapse
But structurally, Bitcoin has outlived:
Every macro shock
Every major exchange failure
Every liquidity crunch
Extreme Fear has never been where Bitcoin died.
It has always been where long-term conviction got paid the most.
The chart doesn’t lie — it rhymes.
This is the zone where history has rewarded patience and resolve.
Stay convicted. The cycle isn’t broken — it’s just loud.
Notifications on — I'll flag the turns early. Stay positioned carefully.

🚨Bitcoin vs Gold: The Historical Lead-Lag Pattern

Gold has often acted as the early warning signal for Bitcoin's major bull runs. Here's the recurring dynamic:
2016: Gold rallied strongly from mid-2015 into 2016 → Bitcoin woke up months later and exploded +30x into the 2017 peak.
2019: Gold broke out to new highs → Bitcoin followed with massive strength into the 2020–2021 cycle top.
2025: Gold surged to fresh all-time highs → Bitcoin lagged significantly behind, consolidating while gold led the way.
Key correlation data (since 2020):
BTC–Gold rolling correlation ≈ 0.14 (very low), confirming they don't move in lockstep daily — but gold tends to lead macro risk-on shifts.
Why this matters now:
Gold is a classic safe-haven / inflation / monetary-debasement hedge that institutions accumulate first when fiat confidence wanes.
Bitcoin, as a higher-beta version of that thesis, often follows with amplified upside once the narrative gains traction and liquidity flows in.
When gold leads and BTC lags → it has historically been a setup for Bitcoin catch-up rallies, not a sign of decoupling or weakness.
Bottom line:
Gold isn't competing with Bitcoin — it's often the canary in the macro coal mine.
The current lag (gold at ATHs, BTC still catching breath) fits the exact pattern that preceded Bitcoin's most explosive phases.
Patience during the lag phase has rewarded holders in every prior cycle.
History doesn't guarantee the future — but it rhymes loudly here.
Notifications on — I'll flag the turns early. Stay positioned carefully.