André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
European Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators
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Happy NFP Day to those who celebrate!
According to the St. Louis Fed, the “breakeven” nonfarm‐payroll growth rate, i.e. the number of jobs needed each month just to keep the unemployment rate flat, is at about +153k jobs.
Anything below that number will most-likely increase the unemployment rate.
BBG consensus: +126k
Whisper number: +110k
According to the St. Louis Fed, the “breakeven” nonfarm‐payroll growth rate, i.e. the number of jobs needed each month just to keep the unemployment rate flat, is at about +153k jobs.
Anything below that number will most-likely increase the unemployment rate.
BBG consensus: +126k
Whisper number: +110k
GM.
I think the spat between Elon vs Trump underscores the
ongoing high economic policy uncertainty in the US and, of course, that...
Nothing. Stops. This. Train. 🚂
I think the spat between Elon vs Trump underscores the
ongoing high economic policy uncertainty in the US and, of course, that...
Nothing. Stops. This. Train. 🚂
“Sell in May and go away?”
#Bitcoin ripped to $112,000 in May, silencing sceptics and setting a new record for monthly closes.
But what about the remainder of 2025?
1/ 🧵
#Bitcoin ripped to $112,000 in May, silencing sceptics and setting a new record for monthly closes.
But what about the remainder of 2025?
1/ 🧵
Why is a TruthSocial #Bitcoin ETF even relevant?
@realDonaldTrump has around 100 million followers on Twitter/X, making him the 8th most followed account on the platform.
He has nearly 10 million followers on TruthSocial directly...
#Hyperbitcoinization
@realDonaldTrump has around 100 million followers on Twitter/X, making him the 8th most followed account on the platform.
He has nearly 10 million followers on TruthSocial directly...
#Hyperbitcoinization
Seriously, why would anyone put their money into traditional assets at this point in order to build wealth over the long term?
#bitcoin
#bitcoin
Don't know who needs to hear this but I think we are rather likely looking at the beginning of a new #bitcoin cycle and not at the end of a classic manicured 4-year cycle.
If you assume that demand factors are becoming more important than supply factors (which you can also see in the data), then the macro cycle will become more important.
Q: Where are we in the macro cycle?
A: Probably close to the bottom.
Huge upside asymmetry in risk/reward from here.
If you assume that demand factors are becoming more important than supply factors (which you can also see in the data), then the macro cycle will become more important.
Q: Where are we in the macro cycle?
A: Probably close to the bottom.
Huge upside asymmetry in risk/reward from here.
ICYMI: There was another huge exchange outflow from Coinbase yesterday.
-7,257 BTC left Coinbase at around 19:00 UTC.
Is @saylor at it again?
-7,257 BTC left Coinbase at around 19:00 UTC.
Is @saylor at it again?
Interesting chart: Maybe a key reason for the lacklustre demand for US Treasuries?
FX-hedged US Treasury yields for major foreign investors from Europe or Japan are mostly below zero.
Better to invest into domestic govt bonds.
FX-hedged US Treasury yields for major foreign investors from Europe or Japan are mostly below zero.
Better to invest into domestic govt bonds.
Me looking at the huge pile of government debt but still relieved after remembering that I own bitcoin.
NOTE: Twenty One's recent BTC purchases put into perspective --
They casually swept off almost 10% of existing bitcoin exchange balances on @bitfinex with their most recent purchases.
This is not a supply shock - it's a demand shock.
They casually swept off almost 10% of existing bitcoin exchange balances on @bitfinex with their most recent purchases.
This is not a supply shock - it's a demand shock.
1 Zeta-Hash (ZH/s) is a 1 with 21 zeros.
Epic.
Epic.
Liquidity in Japanese government bonds is still very bad.
🚨Major BTC outflow from Bitfinex 🚨
Bitfinex just recorded one of the single biggest net exchange outflows of bitcoins in history.
Two major exchange outflows yesterday evening based on data provided by @glassnode - combined amount: 20,835 BTC
Is this Twenty One?
Bitfinex just recorded one of the single biggest net exchange outflows of bitcoins in history.
Two major exchange outflows yesterday evening based on data provided by @glassnode - combined amount: 20,835 BTC
Is this Twenty One?
The only part that was interesting in the latest ISM Manufacturing report was this:
Imports sub-component plunged to the worst level since 2009 in May 2025.
Imports sub-component plunged to the worst level since 2009 in May 2025.
You have probably read that IBIT had $584.5 mn in net inflows last week.
ChinaAMC's Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong had the second highest net inflows globally with $388.1 mn.
Probably nothing...
ChinaAMC's Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong had the second highest net inflows globally with $388.1 mn.
Probably nothing...
FWIW --
There is no reason to believe that bitcoin could only reach gold's market cap.
Major tech disruptions have shown the disruptors were many times more valuable than the incumbents eg Netflix vs video rental industry.
NFLX: $514 bn vs $8.4 bn industry revenues (61x)
There is no reason to believe that bitcoin could only reach gold's market cap.
Major tech disruptions have shown the disruptors were many times more valuable than the incumbents eg Netflix vs video rental industry.
NFLX: $514 bn vs $8.4 bn industry revenues (61x)
*** LIVE Webinar on Thursday ***
Join @thealepalombo and myself on Thursday this week where we will talk about the future prospects for #bitcoin over the next 10 years.
You don't want to miss this conversation.
Register Now! 👇
Join @thealepalombo and myself on Thursday this week where we will talk about the future prospects for #bitcoin over the next 10 years.
You don't want to miss this conversation.
Register Now! 👇
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