đšđąHereâs an integrated view of how the IranâIsrael conflict, which erupted on June 13, 2025, has played out across marketsâand why U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have nonetheless attracted steady inflows:
Geopolitical backdrop and market jitters
Tensions flared when Israel launched strikes against Iranian targets on June 13, triggering fears of a wider regional conflagration. Observers pointed to the potential for oilâsupply disruptionsâespecially given Iranâs role as a major crude exporterâbut global markets have so far priced in only a moderate risk premium. Crude oil jumped roughly 14 percent in the week to June 18 as traders weighed the threat of broader Middle East escalation, yet prices remained below $75/barrel, suggesting that worst-case scenarios have not been fully baked in ïżŒ ïżŒ. Equities likewise showed remarkable resilience: U.S. stocks held near record highs even as Trump warned of further strikes and talked of evacuations in Tehran ïżŒ.
Bitcoinâs safe-haven narrative amid conflict
With goldâs safe-haven mantle well established, many investors are now debating whether Bitcoin might serve a similar role in an age of digital finance. Recent data show Bitcoin hovering above $105 000 despite the warâits relative stability underscoring a growing view of it as âdigital goldâ rather than a purely speculative asset ïżŒ ïżŒ. Academic and market-research voices note that, while Bitcoin can be volatile, its decentralized nature and finite supply often attract capital when traditional channels seem under threat.
Steady inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs
Rather than pulling back, institutional investors have poured money into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs throughout this period:
âą June 13 (day the war began): Net inflow of $322.6 million ïżŒ
âą June 16: Another $412.2 million in net inflows, extending a six-day streak and lifting cumulative ETF inflows since June 9 to over $1.8 billion.
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