🇺🇸 FOMC Decision – June 18, 2025🚨

• The Fed has decided to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, marking the fourth straight meeting without a rate change. Most Fed officials emphasized the need to gather more data—especially on inflation and trade impacts—before considering a cut  .

• The Summary of Economic Projections (“dot plot”) is out, and markets are closely watching:

• The median projection suggests only one rate cut in 2025, though some analysts thought two might be possible earlier in the year  .

🔍 What to look for in Powell’s remarks

Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (11:00 p.m. IST). Watch closely for:

1. Tariff and inflation guidance

• The Fed remains cautious: recent electronic and import tariffs may still keep inflation sticky above the 2% target  .

2. Rate cut outlook

• The dot plot may reveal one cut expected in the coming months, likely in September, but Powell’s tone will determine whether it leans toward September or December .

3. Market vs. data emphasis

• Powell is expected to reinforce that decisions are data-dependent, resisting calls from President Trump to enact cuts prematurely .

4. Unemployment & labor trends

• While job growth has slowed, labor market resilience remains in focus. Any indication of further slowdown could tip the Fed balance .

TL;DR – Tonight’s Press Conference Matters

• Rate held: steady at 4.25%–4.50%

• Dot plot: signaling just one cut in 2025

• Powell’s tone: pivotal—listen to how he addresses inflation, tariffs, and timing

Prepare to watch the live event at 2:30 p.m. ET / 11:00 p.m. IST. If Powell hints at sustained caution, markets could stay range-bound. A more aggressive signaling could spark appreciable moves in bitcoin,forex, Treasuries, and equities.

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