Seen a few discussions lately about how to detect tops in a meta or rotation.

It’s a tough one. There’s no clean formula but you get better at it by being around, getting chopped, sitting through drawdowns, and spotting patterns over time. Most people only really learn after riding something all the way down during their first proper meta.

There's not much difference between onchain and CEX here either. Rotations happen fast in both and the tells are similar. You just need to play a few hands in each to get the reps in.

Here are a few general signs I’ve found useful:

1) Social capitulation

There are always certain names - once they start chasing, it’s often close to the end.

Crypto is inherently social. If you’re in the chats and paying attention, this gets easier to read. When the late-stage crowd joins, it’s usually the final mile.

2) Peak mindshare with no new buyers

When the narrative has hit full mindshare and prices are extended, ask:

Who’s left to buy? Would you buy here?

If it’s mostly rotation of existing capital rather than new inflows, that’s a red flag.

Also, did this meta create a wealth effect? If not, there may be no real follow-through, just churn or money exiting the system.

3) Chasing garbage

Latecomers start bidding junk - derivatives of already weak subsectors or whatever hasn’t moved yet.

Think of it like ETH pumping near the end of a move, the “last asset” rotation play.

When the riskiest, most ignored coins suddenly start running, it’s often exit time.

4) KOL shill fatigue (more about onchain)

Earlier in the rotation, a tweet from the right KOL sends a coin flying.

Near the end? Same KOL, same tweet and price barely moves.

That usually means one of two things: either there’s no fresh capital left to allocate, or the audience is already maxed out and holding bags.

Both are signs the rotation is out of steam.

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No concrete rules - just rough guides. But the more of these meta rotations you sit through, the more these tells stand out.