Not-so-daily Vol 2025-06-09
Gm brothers. Feels like it's gonna be a big week.
Positives
- Good reaction from dip on Fri through weekend
- Plenty of instis running mstr playbook
- Nice technical liquidity grab > consolidation > take-off? pattern forming
- OI looks like it has bottomed, while late shorters pushing funding negative
Negatives : Crypto-Native Capital Markets
- Plasma farm kicks off today(50m indiv cap means liq gets scarce; bad for non-institutional alts)
- Potential pumpfun token(liquidity blackhole when it starts; bad for non-institutional alts)
Negatives : Institutional-Crypto Capital Markets
- Bond auctions this week and next(May 20y auction caused derisking)
- CPI risk
- Potential retaliation from Russia due to Ukraine drone attack
I think one has to be careful regarding which pools of capital are increasing and which are being dispersed.
There's been a clear dichotomy between "Crypto-Native Capital Markets" vs "Institutional-Crypto Capital Markets" this cycle.
This is one of the reasons idiosyncratic price action has been so common place between BTC and alts this cycle.
It's helpful to compartmentalize which events impact which market.
The "Institutional-Crypto Capital Markets" basket is BTC ETH XRP.
Then there are some good contenders with transparent teams and solid cashflows such as HYPE AAVE PENDLE MKR ENA SYRUP etc.
Most of everything else is likely in the "Crypto-Native Capital Markets" bucket.
Positioning : Leaning bullish with hedges
Short SOL and "Crypto-Native Capital Markets" coins(anon founders, memes etc)
Stay lit🕯️
