Solana now risks a 40% drop against Ethereum, with the breakdown of a multi-month rising wedge pattern dampening near-term Solana price forecasts.
This shift comes despite Solana’s 13% gain in May, with Ethereum surging 45% over the same period, surpassing it as the best crypto to buy.
On the back of the U.S. Court of International Trade’s flip-flop on Trump’s tariff suspension, investment markets remain locked in a state of cautious optimism as FUD persists.
Cooling Speculative Interest Has Hit Solana Hard
The SOL/ETH pair faces a breakdown of a 7-month rising wedge pattern, breaching below its lower support during Thursday trading.
SOL / ETH 1-week chart, rising wedge pattern. Source: TradingView, Binance.
A weekly close below the 50SMA—previously a safety net for false breakdowns—would confirm a bearish continuation, targeting a 40% fall toward 0.036 ETH.
The breakdown in SOL/ETH aligns with a visible decline in meme coin-driven activity on Solana. Revenue from its largest meme coin launcher, Pump.fun, has plummeted since early April.
Fees on the platform peaked during the Q1 post-inauguration rally but have since dropped to near-yearly lows, according to Dune Analytics, reflecting fading speculative demand.
Pump.fun played a major role in Solana’s surge to all-time highs between December 2024 and March 2025, with Trump’s pro-crypto stance sparking widespread risk-on behavior.
During this period, total cumulative fees surged past 3 million SOL. With tariff-driven economic FUD, these levels have not been recovered, weakening one of Solana’s primary value drivers.
A May 27 Standard Chartered report reinforces this narrative, arguing that Solana may underperform if it cannot diversify beyond meme coins, which currently dominate its transaction activity.
Solana Price Analysis: Is the 40% Drop Inevitable?
The Solana price chart also faces a critical juncture with the potential invalidation of a rounded bottom pattern, currently retesting its baseline resistance at $160.
As long as $160 holds, the uptrend from the mid-April market bottom remains intact, with the potential to extend another 80% toward the pattern’s $300 target.
However, a breakdown below this level could deepen Solana’s decline, sending it back to the 200SMA and widening the gap with Ethereum—further validating the bearish SOL/ETH setup.
A credible scenario, with the MACD converging towards a death cross and the RSI plummeting towards the neutral line. These momentum indicators suggest sellers dominate the near term.
That said, long-term Solana still remains within the descending channel forming the handle of a 4-year cup-and-handle pattern.
A short-term crash would continue its consolidation, but it is unlikely to invalidate the potential 175% breakout to $460 implied by the broader cup-and-handle formation if a breakout occurs.
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