After Bitcoin reached a new all-time high and has been moving quietly above $100,000, we examined the UTXO Age Band distribution.
First, the proportion of holders who have held their coins for over 6 months remains high, with a notable increase in the 6–12 month group. Historically, when this group’s share declined, Bitcoin’s price cycle tended to end. This was largely due to older holders selling to newer investors, leading to a shift in ownership. (Chart 1)
However, despite Bitcoin hitting a new high, inflows from new investors (less than 1 month holding period) remain sluggish. In past cycles, their share often exceeded 50% near market peaks. But in this cycle, even at the peak, their share only reached around 30%, and it is now below 20%. (Chart 2)
At the same time, the proportion of long-term holders (1+ year) continues to decline, suggesting that these investors are gradually selling and exiting the market. (Chart 3)
In summary, if past patterns hold true, Bitcoin’s upside may be limited without significant inflows from new investors. For now, monitoring the growth in the share of new investors will be key to assessing future market direction.
Written by Avocado_onchain
