Bitcoin’s 7DMA Net Realized Profit/Loss has remained strongly positive since early 2024, reaching +$1B/day as BTC pushes toward all-time highs. Even after positive price action after March-April drop in 2025, profit taking is still aggresive. Maybe not like November-December 2024 but still high.
This is historically consistent with late-stage bull market behavior — where profit-taking dominates, even as price continues to rise.
If we look back at similar cycles (e.g. 2021), this phase often preceded a local top or sharp correction, especially when profit-taking stayed high and continuous.
What’s Different This Time?
Since spot ETFs launched in January 2024, market struInvestors Are Taking Profits Aggressively — Are We Approaching a Local Top?ture has changed — but investor psychology hasn’t.
- Same behavior, bigger scale.
Profit-taking patterns still align with historical cycles, but the speed and volume are amplified.
What to Watch For:
- Sustained realized profits → Risk of correction increases
- Drop in profit-taking → First signal of cycle transition
- Volatility likely to rise short-term
The signal is not calling a full macro top, but it’s flashing a local caution zone.
As always: zoom out, and follow behavior — not just price.
Written by Kripto Mevsimi