ZebinHita

The current chaos in the world can be attributed to 'Elon Musk's son's gender transition.' It is precisely because of this transition that Musk is determined to overthrow the Democratic Party's rule. He bought Twitter, spent heavily on elections, and helped elevate Trump to power. After Trump took office, he launched a tariff war, leading to the triple kill of the dollar, U.S. bonds, and U.S. stocks, plunging the global economy into a great depression era. This can be considered the greatest butterfly effect in modern times.

Longing with 65,675 $ETH, the whale that cleared at a price of 1900, after replenishing 2,000 $ETH last night, ultimately could not hold on and surrendered at 1800, losing 31.75 million dollars. #美股大跌

1. $BTC plummeted to 80,000 and rebounded above 82,000. The entire market saw liquidations of 615 million in the last 24 hours, primarily affecting long positions. The Fear & Greed Index is at 20, indicating extreme fear in the market.
The open interest has sharply decreased, suggesting investors are uncertain about the future direction, hesitant to go long or short.
The market is concerned: will the U.S. economy enter a recession due to the trade war triggered by Trump's tariffs and government layoffs?
2. Important macro events forecast for next week:
Monday: Trump will meet with U.S. tech leaders, including executives from HP, Intel, IBM, and Qualcomm.
Tuesday: U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet again in Saudi Arabia.
Wednesday at 20:30, the U.S. will release the February Core CPI monthly and yearly rates.
Thursday at 20:30, the U.S. will release the February PPI yearly rate.#加密市场回调

Binance issued a notice, penalizing the same market maker for $SHELL and $GPS.
This violating market maker is only responsible for dumping, continuously selling, and not buying. Currently, the account of this market maker has been frozen by Binance.
This market maker is called Web3port, a team based in Shanghai, with a wide range of business activities, including investment and market making.
Web3port provided token financing to its affiliated market maker Whisper, which executed continuous selling operations under internal permission on Web3port's BN account. #币安优化上币机制

The famous DEX aggregator 1inch was hacked on March 5th due to a contract vulnerability, resulting in losses of over $5 million.
The hacker exploited a vulnerability in the old version of the Fusion v1 smart contract to steal funds and left a message inquiring about the bounty for returning the stolen funds.
After negotiating with the hacker, most of the stolen funds have been returned, and the hacker kept a portion as a vulnerability bounty, the amount of which has not been disclosed, typically around 10%-15%.

Progress of Bitcoin Reserve Bills in US States:
The fastest-moving state, Utah, has already passed the proposal, but removed the contents related to BTC and other cryptocurrencies, rendering it ineffective.
Another state that is progressing relatively quickly is Texas, where online rumors claim it has already passed, which is inaccurate; it has only received Senate approval and still needs approval from the House and the Governor, which will take more than 2 months.
Two other states have been rejected.
In fact, it is very difficult for state reserve bills to pass in the short term, mainly because of the high volatility of cryptocurrencies, making state assets reluctant to invest in high-risk categories. #美国犹他州比特币法案

1. The liquidity over the weekend is very low, and $BTC has been fluctuating around 86,000.
$BTC spot ETF has seen capital outflow for four consecutive weeks. This week, due to the crypto summit not exceeding expectations, the BTC price has seen a pullback, with 4,553 coins flowing out on Friday, which is a significant amount.
Due to the US stock market, especially technology stocks, entering a bear market and still not stopping the decline, it is difficult for cryptocurrencies to remain unaffected.
2. On March 19, the Federal Reserve will publish the new "dot plot" of interest rate expectations, which is the prediction of future interest rates by Fed members.
Currently, the market expects 1-2 rate cuts in 2025, but due to Trump's unexpected actions, there may be 3 rate cuts, possibly as early as June.
If there are 3 rate cuts, it will be favorable for cryptocurrencies; if there are 0-1 rate cuts, it will be unfavorable.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has taken a hawkish stance, insisting on reducing inflation first before cutting rates, while under Trump's tariff policy, inflation may worsen.#白宫首届加密货币峰会

1. The White House encryption summit has ended, and all the positive news was announced before the summit. Trump's remarks during the live broadcast were relatively brief, and he did not mention any new policies or new content. The participants' speeches at the summit mostly consisted of 'formalities'.
$BTC subsequently dropped by 3% ten minutes after the summit, hitting a low of 85,000.
The two major positive expectations in the crypto space: reserves and interest rate cuts, have already been partially realized, but there has been little boost to the crypto market, making the future more challenging.
2. Yesterday's announced February unemployment rate was expected to be 4%, but the actual figure was 4.1%, indicating a rise in unemployment, which favors interest rate cuts; the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls were expected to be 160,000, but the actual was 151,000, indicating a decline in employment, which also favors interest rate cuts.
However, the positives from both data points are relatively weak, and the market is anew expecting that rate cuts will begin in June, totaling 75 basis points for the year. Rate cuts will also depend on the dot plot released by the Federal Reserve next week.
3. Last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spoke: There is no rush to cut rates until the impact of Trump's policies becomes clearer.
Powell stated that the economy is 'still in good shape', but the data also suggests that consumer spending may slow down.#白宫首届加密货币峰会

1. The U.S. stock market continues to plummet, Trump states: he doesn't care about the stock market, and the decline is due to global investors selling off.
$BTC rebounded to 93,000 but has also started to plummet, briefly falling below 85,000.
The main reason: due to the U.S. strategy that Bitcoin reserves will not actively acquire additional Bitcoin.
Tonight, the major non-farm payroll data will be released, and it is difficult to expect any positive news.
If the data is too good, it will be interpreted as no interest rate cuts; if the data is too bad, it will be seen as an economic recession; only meeting expectations is a viable option.
2. President Trump signs an executive order to officially establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
This includes digital assets other than Bitcoin that have been seized in criminal or civil litigation.
Apart from assets obtained through confiscation procedures, the government will not acquire other assets for the reserve.
The purpose of the reserve is to manage the government digital assets under the leadership of the Treasury Department.
#特朗普签署行政命令

Just now, $RED's market maker had an issue, resulting in many orders being canceled, which led to a massive wave with a 30% price difference.
This is true liquidity; there are no orders in between, so you feel like the whole market is just playing with you, and that feeling is correct—it's just playing with you.
This is the real side of the counterfeit; there are not many retail investors involved. #加密市场反弹

4. Ethereum $ETH's biggest upgrade this year: The Pectra upgrade has been activated on the Sepolia testnet and has entered the final testing phase.
After activation on the Sepolia testnet, a major issue arose where all on-chain transactions were stuck, which was later fixed.
Coincidentally, one of my transfers was stuck for a long time, which left me puzzled at the time.
5. Bitwise submitted an Aptos ETF S-1 application to the SEC, taking the first step towards launching the Aptos ETF in the U.S.
CANARY submitted the S-1 document for the AXL ETF.
In the future, all altcoins will launch ETFs, and ETFs will become increasingly less valuable.
The altcoin leader $ETH is disheveled in the wind. #美国加密战略储备

1. $BTC rises to 92,000, the main reason for the rebound: Trump holds a cryptocurrency summit at the White House.
The summit will take place from 2:30 AM to 6:30 AM on March 8, divided into two sessions: one is a seminar with over 20 participants; the other is a public summit.
The main topics discussed will include regulatory frameworks, stablecoin policies, and the BTC strategic reserve plan.
2. Do not have overly high expectations for the BTC strategic reserve during the summit; Trump's original words at the 2024 consensus conference:
"The United States will not sell any more $BTC and will hold these BTC as a strategic reserve."
The most likely scenario is that the BTC confiscated by the United States will be used as a strategic reserve and not sold again.
Secondly, there is the U.S. sovereign fund, which is primarily funded by extra government revenue, including taxes. The $50 million investment in AI came from this source and could potentially become a buyer for the cryptocurrency strategic reserve.
Finally, selling gold to buy $BTC through the Federal Reserve is basically impossible and would require Congressional approval.
3. $BTC has two resistance levels at 92,000 and 96,000.
Currently, it has broken away from the 200-day moving average of 82,000 and has not fully entered a bear market. 82,000 remains a strong resistance level.
Yesterday, the small non-farm payroll data was released, with employment figures not meeting expectations, which is bearish.
The most critical non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday at 21:30, which will impact the $BTC trend.
If the non-farm data is slightly worse but not too bad, it will increase the probability of interest rate cuts, which is favorable for U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market.
If the non-farm data is too poor, it will raise expectations of an economic recession, which is bearish for U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market. #白宫首届加密货币峰会 #加密市场反弹

Trump will host the first White House cryptocurrency summit on March 7, gathering industry leaders to discuss regulatory frameworks, stablecoin policies, and the $BTC strategic reserve plan. #美国加密战略储备

1. Roadside Society: Chinese cryptocurrency tycoon Sun Yuchen purchased $75 million worth of $TRUMP tokens, and subsequently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suspended its ongoing civil fraud case against him.
2. Brother Sun is still the same Sun who cuts, and the stablecoin $USDD he strongly promotes has experienced a decoupling phenomenon, with the underlying collateral assets transitioning from $USDT to almost entirely $TRX, and the annualized interest rate dropping from 20% to 12%.
USDD has now issued $730 million, and aside from TRX, there is only $10 million worth of PSM-USDT in the collateral.
However, Brother Sun promised in his own tweet that it absolutely would not lose value, though he did not say it wouldn't decouple. #孙割

1. $BTC once again fell below 83k, then rebounded back to 87k, with weakened rebound momentum. In the past 24 hours, contract liquidations totaled 1.008 billion dollars, with both long and short positions being liquidated.
The 200-day moving average (SMA) support level is 82,587 dollars; if it falls below this, it will directly enter a technical bear market, with the next support level being the previous historical high of 73,757 dollars.
$BTC still remains above the 200-day moving average, indicating strong support from institutions and exchanges, which are still unwilling to enter a bear market.
2. The rebound of $BTC is mainly due to four reasons:
First, Zelensky posted: Thank you for the support from the United States, Ukraine agrees to quickly end the Russia-Ukraine war under Trump's leadership. Reuters reported that the development of rare earth minerals would be signed on March 5, which was later denied by the White House.
However, Zelensky still yielded to the U.S., and the Russia-Ukraine war is expected to end soon.
Second, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce posted: Trump will consider reducing and withdrawing some tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as long as they can properly control the influx of fentanyl, the tariffs can be lifted.
Third, market makers, institutions, and exchanges are still unwilling to let the market enter a bear market, they are still controlling price fluctuations, and of course, issuing tokens cannot stop, and harvesting leverage cannot stop.
Fourth, on March 7, Trump will host a cryptocurrency conference at the White House, which is also a favorable development that can be seen in the short term.#白宫首届加密货币峰会

It is said that Trump is going to make a big move tomorrow and prepare to withdraw from NATO. #加密市场回调

North Korean hackers have completely laundered the stolen $ETH from Bybit, taking 10 days.
Most of the stolen $ETH was exchanged for $BTC, and $BTC has flooded the market and caused a crash.
In the past 24 hours, there has been a net outflow of $660 million in Bitcoin, ranking first, while other cryptocurrencies can only follow the plunge.

$BTC plummets, will MicroStrategy sell $BTC? This week, MicroStrategy has again interrupted its purchasing process for $BTC. The $2 billion that MicroStrategy just raised has all been used to buy Bitcoin.
The cryptocurrency market's crash has caused MicroStrategy's stock to also plummet, making financing more difficult; even the landlord's family has no surplus grain.
Some people are worried: MicroStrategy may be forced to sell Bitcoin, leading to a chain liquidation and triggering a spiral decline in Bitcoin.
This should not happen for two reasons: first, MicroStrategy has very low debt, and the maturity date for its financing bonds is in 2028, which will cross through another bull-bear cycle, giving ample time.
Secondly, the founder holds over 40% of the voting rights, effectively giving him veto power; he has just stated: he would rather sell a kidney than sell Bitcoin. #微策略

The Swiss National Bank has clearly rejected the inclusion of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, citing concerns about the stability of this cryptocurrency. This decision represents a significant blow to the hopes of Bitcoin becoming a recognized reserve asset.
Proposals for Bitcoin to be included as a reserve asset have already been rejected in two U.S. states, also due to excessive price volatility and instability.
The proposal for Bitcoin reserves has been made in over 20 states in the U.S., all of which are Republican-led. Many Republican lawmakers themselves hold crypto assets, but still vote against it, citing the extreme fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices; it is unacceptable to gamble with a state's assets.

$BTC rebounded and then fell again, returning to the starting position of the rebound at 85,000. Relying on verbal support is still a bit lacking; even Trump needs solid financial backing to make a bottom.
Mystical theory: Any deficiency must be filled.
During the recent crash, the CME BTC futures filled two gaps while also creating the largest gap in history from $85,720 to $93,050, which was filled last night.
Additionally, there is a historical gap between $77,930 and $78,675 that has been partially filled during the recent crash but not completely.
Currently, both URPD and CME have a gap around $77,000, and historically, URPD gaps have never gone unfilled.
View of the main funds: In extreme cases, it may touch the $60,000 range, but $75,000 is a strong buy point.