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Trump urgently wants Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. That won't happen this week, economists say.

During a meeting last week between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the president sought to underscore what he said is a "very simple" request: "Interest rates have to come down."

That wish isn't likely to be granted when the Fed announces its next interest rate decision on Wednesday. Economists put the probability of the central bank holding rates steady at 96%, according to FactSet. The Fed has maintained its benchmark rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5% since December 2024, prior to Mr. Trump's second-term inauguration in January, as policy makers try to douse the flickering embers of inflation.

Mr. Trump has for months derided Powell over the Fed's caution in lowering borrowing costs, which experts say would boost economic growth but could cause consumer prices to flare. Upping the pressure, Trump administration officials also have said the Fed chair's handline of a building renovation at the Fed could be grounds for firing.

Despite such criticism, Powell has maintained his stance that no immediate rate cuts are necessary given that the economy remains solid. The Fed chair, who Mr. Trump nominated to head the central bank in 2017, has also suggested he wants to keep its powder dry in case the Trump administration's steep new tariffs cause inflation to reignite.

"With the labor market holding up and the impact of tariffs on inflation starting to rear its ugly head, the Federal Reserve has plenty of ammunition to justify keeping interest rates unchanged at the July meeting," Oxford Economics chief U.S. economist Ryan Sweet said in a July 24 research note.

In making his case for lowering interest rates, Mr. Trump has pointed to rate cuts earlier this year by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, while also pointing out that U.S. inflation so far in 2025 has remained relatively low.

However, the Consumer Price Index — a key gauge for tracking inflation — in June rose to an annualized rate of 2.7%, well above the Fed's 2% annual target and a sign that that tariffs could be pushing some prices higher.

Fed policy makers are meeting this week to discuss what to do on interest rates. Here's what to know
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