Crypto波段王
专注币圈大小波段交易，Twitter：Crypto波段王 vb：穿越牛熊bull
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Bitcoin Market Analysis (The Bull Market has Gradually Started)
April 27, 2025
Writing a few rare market analyses
Recently, many people may still be waiting for a big drop before planning to enter the market, as many people did not expect the market to directly reach around 94000. There are also many who expect a big drop. Whether on Zhihu or Twitter, it is the same. There are not many people who see the bull. You can check the comment sections of those who firmly believe in the bull market; most of the comments are negative. Meanwhile, those who expect a big drop can still list numerous reasons to convince retail investors to short. The comment sections of the bearish bloggers on Twitter also have many supporters. At least before 100,000, there may still be a considerable number of people who are bearish. It doesn’t matter; I stick to my point of view.
Writing a few rare market analyses
Recently, many people may still be waiting for a big drop before planning to enter the market, as many people did not expect the market to directly reach around 94000. There are also many who expect a big drop. Whether on Zhihu or Twitter, it is the same. There are not many people who see the bull. You can check the comment sections of those who firmly believe in the bull market; most of the comments are negative. Meanwhile, those who expect a big drop can still list numerous reasons to convince retail investors to short. The comment sections of the bearish bloggers on Twitter also have many supporters. At least before 100,000, there may still be a considerable number of people who are bearish. It doesn’t matter; I stick to my point of view.
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Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL large cycle market analysis (adjusted and ready, heavy resistance about to break through)
April 17, 2025
The market has now reached a very sensitive period. Many people are greatly affected by even slight fluctuations in the market, which is quite normal, especially during downturns. It's easy to panic sell at this stage because most traders are bearish, and some even believe that prices will drop significantly. Under this sentiment, retail investors find it hard to be patient in holding positions. Now, let's discuss the market trend and soothe the panic of retail investors. Bitcoin market analysis: currently, the most bullish aspect is the weekly level. The cloud system's weekly chart has completely bottomed out. This pattern has been mentioned before; it is the first bottoming since October 2023, and it has taken a year and a half to reach the bottom. Therefore, I pay special attention to this bottom's trend and believe that a significant market movement will occur here.
The market has now reached a very sensitive period. Many people are greatly affected by even slight fluctuations in the market, which is quite normal, especially during downturns. It's easy to panic sell at this stage because most traders are bearish, and some even believe that prices will drop significantly. Under this sentiment, retail investors find it hard to be patient in holding positions. Now, let's discuss the market trend and soothe the panic of retail investors. Bitcoin market analysis: currently, the most bullish aspect is the weekly level. The cloud system's weekly chart has completely bottomed out. This pattern has been mentioned before; it is the first bottoming since October 2023, and it has taken a year and a half to reach the bottom. Therefore, I pay special attention to this bottom's trend and believe that a significant market movement will occur here.
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Important Cryptocurrency News on April 14, 2025:
1. Bitcoin Price Surpasses $85,000
The price of Bitcoin has surpassed $85,000, with a 24-hour change of -0.304% (data fluctuations indicate a short-term pullback while still maintaining a high level), and the market is watching whether it can continue to hit new highs.
2. $OM Token Plummets 98%
The real-world asset token OM (OM Token) plummeted 98% within 24 hours, with a market cap evaporating by over $6 billion. The project team MANTRA responded that the plunge was triggered by forced liquidation from centralized exchanges.
3. Trump and Musk Attend UFC Event Together
Trump became the first sitting president to attend a UFC event, accompanied by Musk, during which cryptocurrency regulatory policies may become a potential discussion topic.
4. Binance Stops Supporting Deposits and Withdrawals for Certain Tokens
Binance announced that starting April 14, it will stop supporting deposits and withdrawals for Flamingo (FLM) and LTO Network (LTO) on designated networks.
5. Cybercriminals Launch Phishing Attacks on Binance Users
Binance users reported receiving phishing attacks via counterfeit official text messages, which involved unusual account activity. Binance has expanded its anti-phishing code functionality to SMS services.
6. European Stock Index Futures Rise Over 2%
European Stoxx 50 index futures rose by 2.5%, and German DAX index futures increased by 2.3%. Improved market sentiment may indirectly influence the cryptocurrency market.
7. U.S. Exempts Certain Electronics from Tariffs
The U.S. announced exemptions for tariffs on electronics such as smartphones and computers, with analysts suggesting that this move may alleviate market concerns over trade tensions.
8. Solana Layer 2 Solution Solaxy Raises $30 Million in Pre-sale
Solana's Layer 2 solution Solaxy completed a $30 million pre-sale, indicating a revival and expansion of the Solana ecosystem.
http://9. Hong Kong Approves Bosera Ethereum for Staking Activities
One of the first virtual asset ETFs in Hong Kong—Bosera Ethereum (03009)—has been approved to participate in staking activities starting April 25, promoting the integration of traditional finance and Web3.
http://10. Phishing Attack Leads to User Asset Loss
Binance's Chief Security Officer confirmed that phishing scammers impersonated Binance or other legitimate institutions via text messages, tricking users into disclosing sensitive information, resulting in asset losses.
1. Bitcoin Price Surpasses $85,000
The price of Bitcoin has surpassed $85,000, with a 24-hour change of -0.304% (data fluctuations indicate a short-term pullback while still maintaining a high level), and the market is watching whether it can continue to hit new highs.
2. $OM Token Plummets 98%
The real-world asset token OM (OM Token) plummeted 98% within 24 hours, with a market cap evaporating by over $6 billion. The project team MANTRA responded that the plunge was triggered by forced liquidation from centralized exchanges.
3. Trump and Musk Attend UFC Event Together
Trump became the first sitting president to attend a UFC event, accompanied by Musk, during which cryptocurrency regulatory policies may become a potential discussion topic.
4. Binance Stops Supporting Deposits and Withdrawals for Certain Tokens
Binance announced that starting April 14, it will stop supporting deposits and withdrawals for Flamingo (FLM) and LTO Network (LTO) on designated networks.
5. Cybercriminals Launch Phishing Attacks on Binance Users
Binance users reported receiving phishing attacks via counterfeit official text messages, which involved unusual account activity. Binance has expanded its anti-phishing code functionality to SMS services.
6. European Stock Index Futures Rise Over 2%
European Stoxx 50 index futures rose by 2.5%, and German DAX index futures increased by 2.3%. Improved market sentiment may indirectly influence the cryptocurrency market.
7. U.S. Exempts Certain Electronics from Tariffs
The U.S. announced exemptions for tariffs on electronics such as smartphones and computers, with analysts suggesting that this move may alleviate market concerns over trade tensions.
8. Solana Layer 2 Solution Solaxy Raises $30 Million in Pre-sale
Solana's Layer 2 solution Solaxy completed a $30 million pre-sale, indicating a revival and expansion of the Solana ecosystem.
http://9. Hong Kong Approves Bosera Ethereum for Staking Activities
One of the first virtual asset ETFs in Hong Kong—Bosera Ethereum (03009)—has been approved to participate in staking activities starting April 25, promoting the integration of traditional finance and Web3.
http://10. Phishing Attack Leads to User Asset Loss
Binance's Chief Security Officer confirmed that phishing scammers impersonated Binance or other legitimate institutions via text messages, tricking users into disclosing sensitive information, resulting in asset losses.
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Bitcoin Market Analysis (Bottom Formation Completed, Bull Market Initiated)
Let's talk about Bitcoin's price movement.
Currently, Bitcoin's weekly chart has reached the bottom again, marking another bottom since October 2023. The cycle has lasted almost a year and a half, so waiting for a wave of weekly bottoms is not easy. Personally, I attach great importance to this wave of weekly bottoms and firmly believe that it will drive the market upward. Therefore, I currently have strong confidence in the market.
At the same time, the MACD at the weekly level has basically completed the zero axis. The larger level of support and the zero axis are both quite effective.
Additionally, Bitcoin has broken through the downward trend line since January 20, and the 12-hour chart has completed a retest. The breakthrough and retest have not been broken, indicating an effective breakout.
Currently, Bitcoin's weekly chart has reached the bottom again, marking another bottom since October 2023. The cycle has lasted almost a year and a half, so waiting for a wave of weekly bottoms is not easy. Personally, I attach great importance to this wave of weekly bottoms and firmly believe that it will drive the market upward. Therefore, I currently have strong confidence in the market.
At the same time, the MACD at the weekly level has basically completed the zero axis. The larger level of support and the zero axis are both quite effective.
Additionally, Bitcoin has broken through the downward trend line since January 20, and the 12-hour chart has completed a retest. The breakthrough and retest have not been broken, indicating an effective breakout.
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Tariff negative news, do retail investors still have hope in the cryptocurrency market?
April 3, 2025
The tariff negative news was actually released nearly a month in advance and has already been digested for a long time. Therefore, Bitcoin has not even broken the low point of March 31. If the tariff had suddenly come out without any warning, it would definitely be considered a black swan event.
Negative news has landed
When negative news has not landed, it feels like a knife hanging over one's head, constantly worried about it stabbing oneself. Therefore, everyone is cautious, including consortiums, institutions, and whales. They are reluctant to make large moves unless they have insider information and can act in advance.
The tariff negative news was actually released nearly a month in advance and has already been digested for a long time. Therefore, Bitcoin has not even broken the low point of March 31. If the tariff had suddenly come out without any warning, it would definitely be considered a black swan event.
Negative news has landed
When negative news has not landed, it feels like a knife hanging over one's head, constantly worried about it stabbing oneself. Therefore, everyone is cautious, including consortiums, institutions, and whales. They are reluctant to make large moves unless they have insider information and can act in advance.
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Dawn has arrived, but most retail investors choose to exit
April 2, 2025
Dawn has come
Many people feel that the darkness before dawn has not yet arrived. In fact, the darkness before dawn has already passed, and dawn has come. However, it is at this stage that most people cannot hold on any longer and choose to exit. I do not stop those who choose to leave, especially those from the community. Their decision to leave is certainly well-considered, or they may have been following some bearish influencers in their operations. This is actually inconsequential; as I've said before, only 1% of people make money in the market.
It's indeed quite difficult to trade according to cycles because there are too many uncontrollable factors.
Dawn has come
Many people feel that the darkness before dawn has not yet arrived. In fact, the darkness before dawn has already passed, and dawn has come. However, it is at this stage that most people cannot hold on any longer and choose to exit. I do not stop those who choose to leave, especially those from the community. Their decision to leave is certainly well-considered, or they may have been following some bearish influencers in their operations. This is actually inconsequential; as I've said before, only 1% of people make money in the market.
It's indeed quite difficult to trade according to cycles because there are too many uncontrollable factors.
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Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the Solana cloud system have all reached the bottom, but today the altcoins experienced a general decline. I firmly believe that Bitcoin and Ethereum will start to rise soon, so I can only interpret today's behavior of the altcoins as an ultimate shakeout.
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Bitcoin Market Analysis, the Major Bottom is Being Constructed
April 2, 2025
The recent market trend looks quite painful, especially for altcoins. Today, Bitcoin has rebounded somewhat, but for altcoins, it seems like they are being drained. Altcoins have collectively dropped, and overall, many coins have reached the bottom. Of course, many people no longer believe that the market will enter a bull market, nor do they believe in me. I am just firm in my belief that there will be a bull market in the first half of this year, and many coins are basically at the bottom now; the startup is actually quite fast.
Let’s talk about Bitcoin first.
Weekly level
The Bitcoin weekly cloud chart has currently reached the bottom and is starting to flatten. If this week closes with a bullish candle, it can basically be confirmed that the Bitcoin weekly chart will turn upward, leading to a gradual increase in the larger cycle. The weekly level takes a relatively long time to develop since it only forms one candlestick per week, so most people cannot withstand this level of consolidation.
The recent market trend looks quite painful, especially for altcoins. Today, Bitcoin has rebounded somewhat, but for altcoins, it seems like they are being drained. Altcoins have collectively dropped, and overall, many coins have reached the bottom. Of course, many people no longer believe that the market will enter a bull market, nor do they believe in me. I am just firm in my belief that there will be a bull market in the first half of this year, and many coins are basically at the bottom now; the startup is actually quite fast.
Let’s talk about Bitcoin first.
Weekly level
The Bitcoin weekly cloud chart has currently reached the bottom and is starting to flatten. If this week closes with a bullish candle, it can basically be confirmed that the Bitcoin weekly chart will turn upward, leading to a gradual increase in the larger cycle. The weekly level takes a relatively long time to develop since it only forms one candlestick per week, so most people cannot withstand this level of consolidation.
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$BTC
The 5-day moving average has reached the zero axis, which is a very important signal. Since the beginning of 2023, the two major rallies have both been initiated after the 5-day MACD reached the zero axis, and this time it has also reached the zero axis.
Additionally, the head and shoulders bottom pattern at the weekly level, which started in April 2021 and has now reached this neck line, has broken through and completed a pullback. Such large-scale patterns indicate a large-scale rally.
All cryptocurrencies in the cloud chart have reached the bottom.
Therefore, remain firmly bullish.
The 5-day moving average has reached the zero axis, which is a very important signal. Since the beginning of 2023, the two major rallies have both been initiated after the 5-day MACD reached the zero axis, and this time it has also reached the zero axis.
Additionally, the head and shoulders bottom pattern at the weekly level, which started in April 2021 and has now reached this neck line, has broken through and completed a pullback. Such large-scale patterns indicate a large-scale rally.
All cryptocurrencies in the cloud chart have reached the bottom.
Therefore, remain firmly bullish.
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Large-scale increases will gradually begin. At this stage, many people cannot see clearly, and by the time they do, they are already not far from being trapped at the top.
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Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio has failed to break through this level for six consecutive weeks. If it can't rise and starts to fall, it will be good for altcoins. If it drops below 57%, the altcoin season will begin.
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From the perspective of the indicators of mainstream coins and altcoins, many coins have already reached their position, and the indicators are also in place. The market needs a wave of positive news to boost the indicators. Tonight's Federal Reserve may bring good news
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The EOS Network announces its rebranding to Vaulta, fully transforming into a Web3 bank to integrate decentralized finance with traditional banking. This strategic transformation will include a token swap plan, scheduled for the end of May 2025, where the new Vaulta token will replace the existing EOS token. Additionally, Vaulta will establish a Banking Advisory Committee, composed of experts from traditional finance and the blockchain industry, aimed at exploring the integration between the two. Vaulta plans to leverage its existing EOSIO technology architecture and the new exSat digital banking solution to enhance the infrastructure of its Web3 banking business, in order to provide users with a wide range of financial services. Once seen as a failure case, EOS now hopes to rise again through this transformation.
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$BTC
The upward trend of the large market cycle is approaching, and various indicators suggest that a surge is about to occur. Recently, there may be significant positive news released in conjunction with the indicators' rise, with news aligning with the indicators.
The upward trend of the large market cycle is approaching, and various indicators suggest that a surge is about to occur. Recently, there may be significant positive news released in conjunction with the indicators' rise, with news aligning with the indicators.
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#ETH
1. The Ethereum cloud map system indicator is currently at the weekly bottom, and building a bottom may take another week or two, but it has already reached the bottom, and the rise is imminent.
2. The trend line that emerged from the bottom in 2022 has just completed a retest and has not been effectively broken, providing strong support.
3. The lower support of the Vegas tunnel on the weekly chart, which has never been effectively broken.
In summary, the market adjustment will end, and a major bull market will come; I am personally very bullish.
1. The Ethereum cloud map system indicator is currently at the weekly bottom, and building a bottom may take another week or two, but it has already reached the bottom, and the rise is imminent.
2. The trend line that emerged from the bottom in 2022 has just completed a retest and has not been effectively broken, providing strong support.
3. The lower support of the Vegas tunnel on the weekly chart, which has never been effectively broken.
In summary, the market adjustment will end, and a major bull market will come; I am personally very bullish.
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#BTC
The Bitcoin two-day line has been retracing to the Vegas tunnel for almost a month now; the adjustment period is almost over. The launch in 2024 also started after retracing to the two-day line.
At the same time, the Bitcoin long-term five-day line MACD is at the zero axis. Each time the five-day line reaches the zero axis, it is accompanied by a significant price increase. However, this position may still need some adjustment, though it won't take too long. After a normal return to the zero axis, it will start.
The Bitcoin two-day line has been retracing to the Vegas tunnel for almost a month now; the adjustment period is almost over. The launch in 2024 also started after retracing to the two-day line.
At the same time, the Bitcoin long-term five-day line MACD is at the zero axis. Each time the five-day line reaches the zero axis, it is accompanied by a significant price increase. However, this position may still need some adjustment, though it won't take too long. After a normal return to the zero axis, it will start.
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Although it is like carving a boat to seek a sword, I firmly believe I can rise again
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After the total market value adjustment is completed, a big market trend will begin
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