远山洞见

This weekend, I've been at home with the flu, nestled in bed and not going anywhere. Occasionally, I check group messages, and my friends are lamenting in voice chat that the meme pace on BSC has quickened again.

When everyone knows the endgame is to return to zero, the optimal solution is to be a paper hand—pump it up and then dump it. Once this learning effect takes hold, it's like a mutation in on-chain consensus; the PVP pace will only get shorter and harsher.

Unless someone can break this collective cognition, like if CZ suddenly decides to bring back an old coin that has returned to zero, then the market will reprice the possibility of the 'endgame', thereby delaying the PVP pace.

Moreover, BSC currently faces another problem: the inherent disadvantage of hot money inflow. Sol has become the default first issuance place; only things directly associated with CZ and Binance will be moved to BSC. To break this situation, there needs to be a non-CZ narrative but capable of naturally growing into a hit, like Routine, which can surge even when Sol is generally quiet, but no one plays on BSC.

This state is also a manifestation of the 'innovation decay effect'—homogeneous gameplay, information overload, diminishing returns, ultimately leading to intensified PVP and ROI approaching zero.

Now it remains to be seen whether CZ and BSC can still play an unconventional hand; otherwise, it will be hard to sustain.

Trump's political activities in the next four years will essentially build a traffic beacon for $TRUMP that never goes out. From the previous 2024 presidential campaign and the 2026 midterm elections, to the sudden progress of various crypto bills and tweets on social media, each round of public events may be transformed into fuel for price fluctuations.

This narrative engine, which is continuously powered by the real political ecology, makes TRUMP unique in the Meme track. In contrast, most animal-based currencies rely on the community's spontaneous creation of memes, just like desert plants that rely on rain from heaven. Once creativity is exhausted or hot spots are transferred, liquidity will evaporate quickly.

My strategic choice is essentially a response to this difference. 80% of the position is anchored on the Beta income of the $SOL ecosystem, because its underlying public chain attributes naturally undertake the traffic torrent brought by the Meme craze, which not only avoids missing out, but also controls tail risks through hard stop losses.

$TRUMP's Competitive Barriers

Entry-level Revolution:
Binance C2C direct purchases have lowered the threshold to "zero awareness level," with the proportion of non-crypto users continuously breaking through, forming a user base completely different from traditional Meme coins.

Compliance Exploration:
REXShares and Osprey Funds submitted the Rex-Osprey Trump ETF application, which, if approved, may become the first compliant product tied to a political IP, indirectly leveraging traditional capital to enter the market.

Scenario-based Breakthrough:
McDonald's is piloting $TRUMP payment verification, creating a flywheel effect of "Meme coin → physical consumption → secondary dissemination."

$LINK and $XRP, which one do you prefer?

$LINK is more than just "an oracle", it is working with the world's largest financial institutions to promote the deep integration of blockchain and traditional finance.

Chainlink's cooperation cases include:
Working with SWIFT to connect more than 11,500 banks to the blockchain, and has now entered the pre-production stage;
Working with DTCC to put the net asset value (NAV) on the chain to promote the tokenization and distribution of mutual funds;
Working with the Central Bank of Brazil to promote the Drex CBDC project for supply chain management and trade finance;
Working with ANZ and ADDX to promote privacy-protected cross-chain asset settlement;
Working with UBS and SBI DAH to promote liquidity solutions for cross-chain tokenized funds;
Working with Euroclear and SWIFT to use Chainlink to create on-chain structured data for corporate action data;
Working with Sygnum and Fidelity to use Chainlink to provide NAV data support for tokenized funds;
Working with Bancolombia to use Chainlink to verify the reserve data of the Colombian peso stablecoin.
In contrast, although $XRP is promoted as a "bank coin", it has failed to gain effective market recognition in cross-border payment scenarios and lacks demand amid the rise of stablecoins and CBDCs.
Ripple has not cooperated with SWIFT and does not have the ability to compete with Chainlink. The market's expectations for $XRP are misunderstood, and the information asymmetry will not last long.

Looking forward to $XRP , $AVAX , and $LINK benefiting from the favorable shift in domestic policies in the United States, especially in the strategic layout of RWA (Real World Assets).

Reason:

$XRP is closely associated with traditional finance, benefiting from changes in domestic policies in the United States, and is becoming an important participant in the payment, communication bridge, and RWA fields.

$AVAX : Launched in collaboration with JPMorgan, the Avalanche Evergreen subnet is designed for institutional use, meeting the development needs of RWA and bringing blockchain application scenarios to traditional finance.

LINK: Through the CCIP protocol, it connects on-chain and off-chain economies, facilitating interaction between DeFi and traditional finance (TradFi), unlocking numerous use cases for financial asset tokenization, making it a widely accessed crypto protocol for financial institutions.
#山寨季來了？

Looking forward to $LUCE's performance during Christmas and New Year.

Reasons:
Festival Effect: As the mascot for the Vatican's "2025 Holy Year" celebration, $LUCE will receive extensive official promotion and community engagement from December 24, 2024, to January 6, 2025.

Communication Potential: $LUCE's role has a strong meme characteristic, and with the Vatican promoting this role, it is expected to generate a large amount of official content, fan art, news reports, etc., which will greatly increase $LUCE's visibility.

Cultural Opportunity: The Vatican aims to attract young people's attention to religion through $LUCE. Whether from a religious perspective or a meme perspective, this cross-generational appeal will bring potential market dividends to $LUCE.

Potential Market Heat: The 2025 Holy Year celebration coincides with a bull market cycle, and $LUCE is expected to become one of the most discussed memecoins, especially during the celebration period, as market atmosphere and topicality will drive its performance.

Bullish on $Pnut

Reasons:

Uniqueness and Cultural Background: The story of $Pnut is related to the American elections and has strong cultural and social influence. Elon Musk has mentioned $Pnut multiple times in tweets, and by posting 'squirrels' and related memes, he has significantly increased the market attention on $Pnut.

Community and Public Support: The discussions around $Pnut by Trump and the entire America have boosted its social recognition, making $Pnut the third largest meme coin after DOGE and PEPE.

Market Heat and Trading Volume: In the past three weeks, $Pnut has consistently ranked third in meme coin trading volume, even without being listed on mainstream platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood. Once listed, the expected trading volume will surge, potentially driving the market cap to skyrocket to $3-5 billion.

Future Potential: Once $Pnut lands on major trading platforms, it could experience an unprecedented surge, expected to explode rapidly like other major meme coins.
$PNUT #山寨季來了？

This week's token unlock

Dora Factory (DORA) will unlock approximately 28.57 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 2, accounting for 2.86% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $3.5 million;

Staika (STIK) will unlock approximately 1.57 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 4, accounting for 0.00% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $2.4 million;

Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 4, accounting for 0.69% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $4.9 million;

Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 3:00 PM Beijing time on December 4, accounting for 0.45% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $10.5 million;

Everclear (NEXT) will unlock approximately 20.11 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 5, accounting for 18.82% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $2.6 million;

Delysium (AGI) will unlock approximately 8.57 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 5, accounting for 0.67% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $2.1 million;

Taiko (TAIKO) will unlock approximately 9.29 million tokens at 8:00 PM Beijing time on December 5, accounting for 11.38% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $20.9 million;

Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 6, accounting for 0.05% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $19.8 million;

Cetus Protocol (CETUS) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 6, accounting for 1.37% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $3.1 million.
#山寨季來了？

Bullish $DOGE , the general bearishness of the market may be an illusion

Recently, many people have actively shorted $DOGE , thinking that this is the peak, but I have a different view. When the market unanimously believes that a certain target has reached its peak, it often does not really reach its peak.

Trading view:

Multiple potential catalysts
Trump returns to the presidency: If Trump is elected, he and Musk may vigorously promote cryptocurrencies and promote them through the "Government Efficiency Department".

Dogecoin ETF: I predict that there will be a Dogecoin ETF launched next year, further promoting the market demand for DOGE.

Impact of retail investors returning: When Bitcoin breaks through new highs and news of Trump's strong support for cryptocurrencies begins to spread, retail investors will return to the market, and DOGE will be their first choice.

Correlation between market sentiment and BTC performance
Although BTC's dominance continues to rise, DOGE has remained strong and even set a new cycle high. Once BTC.D peaks, DOGE's performance may be even stronger.

The "muscle memory" effect of retail investors
Looking back at the frenzy of 2021, when retail investors rush into the market again, the first target they think of may still be DOGE.
In short, there is no reason to be bearish on DOGE at present. The general bearish sentiment in the market makes me more confident to be bullish.
$PNUT

#PNUT走高

Let's review the top meme tokens and see what you can buy

We review the meme coin projects with the leading market value:

Dogecoin ($DOGE ): The originator of meme coins, using PoW mining, has long occupied the leading position in meme due to its purity and frequent support from Musk.

Shiba Inu ($SHIB): As a product of the same cycle as $DOGE , it has its own imitation plate attributes and is also a dog image, so it ranks second in meme.

Floki ($FLOKI): Named after Musk's pet dog, the narrative associated with Elon Musk strengthens its influence.

Goat ($GOAT): The first meme coin recognized by AI agents, with the pioneering significance of "meme + AI", bringing a unique narrative.

Neiro ($NEIRO): Dogecoin's "second dog" setting, with a simple and clear narrative, meets the market's demand for "animal meme coins".

PEPE: The widely circulated emoticon package last year, the representative of the attention economy, the meme coin that conforms to the new narrative, has become mainstream.

BRETT: The work of the artist PEPE, mainly blue-toned Base chain, the narrative is weak, but it has been pushed to the top under strong control.

WIF and POPCAT: The two leading meme coins on the Solana chain, one cat and one dog, take the cute route. However, due to the lack of native attention at the beginning, some markets found it difficult to understand their narrative.

NOT: It is considered a VC coin, lacking the essence of meme, and wearing the skin of meme.

Peanut ($PNUT ): It has become a new star in the meme market in just two weeks. Its narrative is closely linked to the US election and has received high attention from the Republican Party. As the first Binance spot animal coin that is not a cat or dog, it meets all the elements of a high-quality meme coin, and the narrative is simple, clear and persuasive.

Peanut is gradually becoming a legendary IP of historical level, and we are witnessing the writing of this history. The rise of crypto and meme culture are quietly leveraging everything, turning people from cold-eyed bystanders into witnesses who care about the historical process.

The main line of the current market has been clarified, and $DOGE and $PNUT are expected to start the "spiral upward" mode:

DOGE: As the leader and the largest meme coin in terms of market value, $DOGE plays the role of opening up the meme market space, and may take the lead in launching the DOGE ETF and continue to lead.

PNUT: With higher cultural and political value, it is expected to follow closely and become the next $SHIB, with huge potential.

For $PNUT , the current circulation is still small, so it is recommended to cherish the opportunity to obtain chips.

#PNUT走高

The "truth" of on-chain transactions and the real gameplay of the Big Golden Dog

On-chain players must be clear about one thing: the top development team (dev) will never let you easily make a lot of money in the inner market.

My words are not directed at anyone, but I hope everyone will take the following as the truth - this is the conclusion I came to after in-depth communication with the dev.

Trading point of view:
The operation of high-level dev:
The top dev who can make "Golden Dog" will always track the cost price and selling behavior of each buying address. Even if you get a little cheap chips in the inner market, it is difficult to lock in big profits, because the dev will make it difficult for you to hold for a long time through operation.

The actual situation of the inner market:
If you hear someone claim that they have taken 5% of the chips in the inner market and made a lot of money, most of the time it is to attract attention. Dev usually does not let this happen easily, because once too many people hold the chips in the inner market, their operation will also be difficult to maintain.

Choose the entry point carefully:
It is recommended that you chase the large orders of the Golden Dog project within the range of 500k-1M, rather than trying to get low-priced chips in the inner market, to avoid being misled by the high risk and complex operations of the inner market.

Remember, anyone who calls you in the inner market is either a group member who wants you to help support the price, or the dev wants you to help attract more funds. After understanding this logic, calmly choose the operation strategy that suits you.

$ACT $PNUT

Analysis of the increase and sustainability of the Bitcoin bull market

From the current increase of Bitcoin ($BTC ), although there are signs of a bull market, the sustainability is still not enough to confirm the arrival of the bull market.

Looking back at historical trends: After breaking through the previous high, the Bitcoin bull market in 2021 rose for 42 consecutive days, and continued to rise for 98 days after the first retracement before reaching a high of $64,895. At present, the rise in 2024 has just broken through the previous high for 7 days, and has not yet fully demonstrated its sustainability.

Waiting for the best entry opportunity: A real bull market requires time and sufficient sustainability. Investors should be patient and wait for prices to retreat to the key EMA moving average support level, which is an ideal opportunity to build a position with a higher profit-loss ratio. Although small opportunities continue to emerge, such as yesterday's intraday volatility of Bitcoin exceeding 10%, big opportunities need to wait for the market to retreat to the key support position.

Mental management: In a bull market, rushing to "grab a handful" can easily lead to greater losses. Don’t blindly chase high prices due to FOMO (fear of missing out), the market will constantly create new entry opportunities.

Note $$ACT, $GOAT may have reached a peak area!

Current observation: $GOAT has already entered a high position, with a market capitalization of 800 million USD. Retail investors are gathering, and funds and attention may be drawn away by $ACT in the future.

Opinion:
ACT Advantage: ACT has launched on top exchanges, attracting funds and sentiment influx. Due to lighter retail involvement, it offers better value for money and has significant upside potential.

GOAT Risk: GOAT's market capitalization is already high; without further liquidity support, it may be difficult to maintain the current high position, posing a risk of decline. Signs of on-chain whales reducing their holdings are also worth noting, indicating that market confidence may be wavering.

Strategy Suggestion: For GOAT, it is advisable to remain cautious in the market capitalization range of 800 to 1 billion USD. ACT is expected to welcome short-term upward opportunities due to support from top exchanges, and its trading trends should be monitored.

How long will the bull market last? Personal thoughts, please don't attack

Many people, including myself, have speculated whether the current $BTC trend is similar to the situation in June 2021—when the price broke through historical highs after several months of consolidation. If so, there might be about 4-5 months of upward movement left.

However, I believe this market may last longer than in 2021 for the following reasons:

1. Longer consolidation period: This consolidation period has lasted about 250 days, far exceeding that of 2021.

2. Strong rally after a long consolidation: Generally, after a longer consolidation or base formation, the subsequent rise tends to be stronger.

3. Different market structure: This time, there are ETFs and a large influx of capital, which is quite different from the market conditions in 2021.

4. Not yet at the initial rally phase similar to the winter of 2020: Although I hope so, I don't think our current market is in a zone similar to the end of 2020 when BTC just started to rise, as the current BTC levels are relatively higher.

I believe we may have a 4-8 month upward period ahead. I expect BTC to perform stronger (which has already started), BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) to rise further, and then we will welcome the altcoin frenzy. While it won't completely replicate the altcoin season of January 2021, the upcoming period will be very exciting for many.

$DOGE and Other Mainstream Meme Coin Potential Analysis

1. Related to Musk and Trump
Believe in the trend, hold onto the main line.
$DOGE: This round may be stronger than the last! Bullish up to $1, no need for much explanation.
$PNUT: After a washout, it is expected to strengthen, supported by Trump and Musk. It may become a key traffic source in the election, with a high ceiling.
$LUCE: Trump spreads religious gospel, the religious artifact luce may have more interactions.

2. Classic Meme
Includes $SHIB, $PEPE, $BOME, $BONK, etc. Especially $PEPE, which originally hoped for the Trump election narrative, but the current situation is slightly below expectations, as the rise of $DOGE has overshadowed some brilliance. The market cap of classic meme coins has reached a high, bearing significant pressure.

3. Binance Meme
This type specifically refers to meme coins backed by Binance, with rapidly increasing popularity and noticeable wealth effects.
$NEIRO: Market cap of 1 billion, positioned as a new Dogecoin, but has higher popularity in Chinese regions, may be suppressed by $DOGE.
$ACT: AI concept, lower market cap and concentrated chips, may have significant space due to Binance support.

4. On-chain Meme
On-chain leading projects that have not been listed on Binance, but have market caps of 500 million to 1 billion face difficulties in listing on Binance. Small-cap projects are relatively advantageous for retail investors, but the challenges are considerable. It is recommended to pay attention to high liquidity, large memes on Binance or potential projects that have not yet been listed on Binance. When uncertain, hold onto coins for opportunities or choose stable large coins (such as $SOL or BTC).

Trading Viewpoint: Maintain patience and imagination during a bull market, hold quality targets for a few months before assessing results, and avoid swing trading. #牛回速归，晒晒你的持仓？

The underlying logic of position $DOGE

-Elon Musk concept

-Government Efficiency Department (D.O.G.E) narrative

-Potential benefits of Twitter payments

$BONK 也许将开启新一轮涨势

$BONK 刚刚突破了近一年来的巨大三角形整固区间。如果回踩确认，这是一次值得大胆布局的机会。

同时叠加以下原因：
1、Robinhood 和 Webull 上市传闻临近，将解锁美国散户的流动性
2、唯一具备 ETP 的 memecoin
3、Cb 上面的的新memecoin
4、BonkBot 的强劲回购/销毁压力
5、韩国所Up USDT 交易对已上线，韩元（KWR）交易对即将上线，或将激发韩国市场热情

很快你可能会在时间线上再次看到“Bonk Guy”的CX。

$BONK

#山寨季分析

$SCR 如果当作meme来炒的话，它的注意力是顶级的。

特朗普概念，以太坊相关，价值币，这三个都是最近的热点，scr都踩到了。

同时作为launchpool新币和上线后的fud也带来了高热度。

Scr 是 Trump 标的中的一个尴尬存在，有几个关键点：

SCR 背后由 Polychain 支持，同时也是 Trump 旗下 WLFI 项目的最大支持者。美国三大加密基金中，只有 Polychain 明确支持 Trump，甚至曾一度在海湖庄园办公。

据推测，Polychain 的持仓成本在 7-9 亿美元范围，持仓比例接近甚至超过 10%。

WLFI 的本质是为 Trump 筹集竞选经费。基于非公开数据，在竞选最后 20 天，Trump 资金出现危机，但无法直接快速从美国人手上获得政治xian金，于是通过 Polychain 和 SCR 开通海外筹款通道，属于“雪中送炭”之举。

如果 SCR 是美国项目，获得的红利可能会更大。

#山寨季分析