Crypto小王

Further analysis shows that one of the key driving forces behind this significant growth is the successful launch of the Big Pie ETF and its subsequent rapid development.

Since being approved in early 2024, the asset size of the Big Pie ETF has rapidly swelled to more than $50 billion. This milestone achievement has greatly attracted the attention of institutional investors, prompting them to rush into the cryptocurrency market, further promoting the Market prosperity and wealth growth.

Key events affecting the market:

Economic concerns: Upcoming economic reports may heighten concerns about a U.S. recession, which could trigger sharp market volatility.

Political impact: The U.S. presidential campaign has entered a critical phase, especially with both major candidates taking a supportive stance on cryptocurrencies, which could bring uncertainty to the market.

Federal Reserve interest rate decision: A potential rate cut has a significant impact on the crypto market.

Why does the price fall first and then rise after the interest rate cut?
1. The cryptocurrency circle is a cycle of building and breaking consensus. When everyone thinks that the price will rise immediately after the interest rate cut, the market will definitely break this consensus. From the performance of each interest rate cut in the past, it can be seen that the price must fall first and then rise.
2. Do you think the smart money will come in directly to help you after it comes out? Therefore, there is a high probability that the price will fall below the box once, so that the smart money will enter the market.

When can spot be entered?
Now is actually quite suitable. Conservatives can wait and see until the bottom of the daily line is formed. Generally, there is no market in summer. The fourth quarter is generally good. If the interest rate is cut in September, after the first interest rate cut, you can enter the market when there is a correction.

Will there be another violent bull market? There must be another violent bull market. This round is different from the previous ones. Because of the intervention of ETFs, the adjustment period is longer, but the space is relatively small. Therefore, the entire market cycle is extended. If you believe that this market will have a big market in the next year or so, then you must get through this time node. If you get through it, you will have a bright future. If you give up in the end, you will have nothing!

September market prediction!
As for the US interest rate cut in September, there are still questions. Normally, A-shares will start to rise a few months before the US interest rate cut, and both parties in the United States should not give up the credit for stimulating economic development by cutting interest rates. It would be more reasonable to announce it during their terms of office.
From the past September, most of them were mainly shock consolidation. Since the second bottom has not been completed yet, it is recommended that you watch more and do less to avoid unnecessary losses. Taking the right side of the transaction is the best choice.
At that time, I will issue a notice to inform you to enter the market. My current position is only 20% (large currency), and I will wait for the next opportunity to push the position up to 80%.
Recommended currency: TEF SOL ORDI PEPE SATS

Don't die before dawn. The bull market crashed. The current decline of the market has caused many people to suffer heavy losses.
Too many people even thought that the bull market was gone. When these people began to doubt the market, the market was still falling. But when they began to blow up their positions, stop losses, and leave the market, the fan bomb would start immediately.
There is nothing surprising. This is the human nature of gambling. This year's dog dealer is no longer a small fight like before. The regular army trading methods of ETFs will beat the previous market. Operate cautiously. There is nothing good about such a market. Before there is confirmed good news, there is no lowest, only lower. Do less and watch more. The only one who laughs last is the one who holds firmly.

I have read many posts with many KOLs. Those who are bearish are all bearish at a large scale. This is why there are people who keep shorting every time there is a small rebound. This is not a good thing for the bears who do not look at the small level. There are indeed some structural changes at the small level. Continue to wait for the choice of the market. This car is quite shaking. I am very interested in watching it.

Looking back at the market, the price of Bread continues to fall and the rebound is very weak. It seems that it will continue to find a new low. Wait for a wave of large volume before considering bottom-fishing. Now it is falling, and it will continue to fall! SOL has continued to fall since MEME failed. At present, the daily line has fallen for 8 consecutive days. The MEME of the SOL chain has also continued to fall. Maybe the market has only one direction at present, which is falling!

When will it stabilize, rebound or even reverse? It is estimated that there may be a rebound around 53,000. It depends on the strength at that time. Before the interest rate cut in September, the reversal was not optimistic. At present, the interest rate cut may not be a big positive, unless a 50 basis point cut can stimulate the market. 25 basis points will be interpreted as negative!

Today's operation suggestion: wait and see with empty positions. If you have short orders, you can hold them and wait for the large volume to fall normally.

Will interest rate cuts really bring about a bull market?

On August 23, Bao revealed that the policy has a tendency to change to lower interest rates, and everyone felt that the interest rate cut in September has become an inevitable event. As a result, retail investors blindly followed suit, but forgot historical experience - the Fed's interest rate cuts are usually a necessary means to deal with economic crises.

Interest rate cuts do not necessarily bring about an immediate rise in the risk market. On the contrary, in most cases, it is a decline.

Usually, interest rate cuts mean declines, because in the history of the United States, most interest rate cuts are accompanied by economic recessions. Although interest rate cuts are intended to alleviate recessions, they cannot fundamentally solve the recession problem. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term data, in most cases, the risk market is in a downward trend when interest rates are cut.

However, interest rate cuts represent a process, and may even be a long process of 16 months or more. In this process, as the economy changes, there may be different development trends. For example, in the early stage of interest rate cuts, if it does not trigger an economic recession, the market may not be too pessimistic. Because the market expects interest rate cuts, it will react in advance, and when the interest rate cut actually occurs, users may choose to sell.

From the perspective of the election, according to historical data, during most elections, the risk market rose for a total of five months, two months before and after the election. There is even a saying that the more it fell before the election, the higher it rose after the election. Of course, this is just a historical summary. There have been elections and economic recessions in history, but the trend during the election was indeed relatively good.

Therefore, I think as long as the economy does not decline in 2024, there is still a great possibility that factors such as the year-end election, halving, interest rate cuts, and FASB will ferment together.

There is no need to care too much about the PCE data at night. The market in August is coming to an end, and there will be an extreme up and down check to hit your stop loss moment.

Look at the currency market from the perspective of the project side.

Look at the currency market from the perspective of small and medium-sized project side, and you will find that the current crypto circle is in a very absurd situation, and the underlying logic is wrong.

First, where do their profits come from?

I read some decks of project side, and the whole article is about listing, market value management, market making, and the business just casually talks about some narratives, that is, such projects and coins can still be listed to cut leeks. The airdrop is advertised, and if it is really released, it will be postponed indefinitely or simply 1-3u per account, which is even considered a lot. The income still has to be pulled from the sheep, selling coins for money.

Second, is their token economics really reasonable?

10% is used for ecological construction, and 20% is used for VC, that is, in the seed round. With this distribution situation, retail investors will definitely not make money, and even VC may not be able to make money.

The starting price announced on the exchange is not completely accurate. Add in various fees (there will be some intermediary-like institutions in the middle), and the chips obtained by VC are not very low in cost. Coupled with the long-term lock-up, many have already fallen below the line.

Compared with traditional finance, the crypto industry is still in its infancy, so no matter what trend this market takes, it will not be too unexpected.

On August 21, Vitalik Buterin predicted that Ethereum would soon rebound. On August 22, Vitalik Buterin strongly called out: "Ethereum's fundamentals are very strong!" On August 24, the Ethereum Foundation sold 35,000 ETH. On August 30, Vitalik Buterin sold 800 ETH.

Let me talk about a few key events to facilitate your operation
1: Many whales have begun to plan for the October market. September is generally a slightly flat month, from weak to strong. The fourth quarter will be a relatively strong period for BTC. I hope that there will be a good market in the last four months of this year
2: The US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 72.1 million US dollars yesterday, and the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of 1.7714 million US dollars in a single day. The data is bearish 3: The largest holder of WIF borrowed 1.4 million USDC and purchased 643,832 WIFs. Institutions bought the bottom and danced with the dealer
4: USDC issued 50,039,800 USDC on the Ethereum chain yesterday, which is a positive. In the past seven days, BTC in Binance has decreased by 49,052 BTC, and Coinbase has decreased by 13,844 BTC. Big funds have bought the bottom and hoarded goods. The cost of this wave of ETFs and exchanges is between 55,000 and 50,000
5: Sun Ge’s famous brand called SUN, and fully acquired sun stocks at a price of 0.03 US dollars, and did not sell any Sun

Bitcoin afternoon market insights

Life is like a marathon, it is not about instantaneous bursts, but about persistence along the way. Once you have determined your goal, run firmly, every step counts, and every drop of sweat will create your glory

Recently, the Bitcoin market has returned to the box-shaped oscillation rhythm. Yesterday, after slowly rising to the 61,200 area, it was under pressure and stepped back. In the afternoon, it also came to 58,600 and rebounded. It is now back to the 59,300 line. The overall volatility during the day is not large, with a small oscillation trend. In the morning, it was given to 59,600-59,800 for short selling, and the rebound did not reach the target point. The current trend is still in oscillation, and short-term operations can continue to maintain a high-altitude thinking! If the decline does not continue, you can reverse more.

There are not many super changes in the overall trend. It was there in the morning and it is still there now. There is no obvious breakthrough in the trend. The K-line on the 4-hour chart has been closed by a large negative line after the continuous upward movement. The current market has not given too many rebound actions, and according to technical indicators, the bears are still likely to continue to fall. Therefore, in terms of operations, we continue to maintain the high-altitude thinking unchanged.

The more core coins and btc coins are pledged, it is also a manifestation of the enhanced consensus! When the dual-currency pledge model is launched, the effect will be even more significant! A track with new tracks, new assets, new concepts, and new stories is expected to come out. An old leek who has experienced it for seven or eight years can tell you that the flavor of the current market is the rhythm of new tracks coming out. Important reminder: It will explode in the core. currency

People continues to strengthen, pay attention to whether the upper resistance range can be broken

ARB, which was once popular, is now ignored! The main reason why ARB cannot rise is due to fierce market competition and challenges from rivals such as OP.

Technological development may not meet expectations and is affected by the overall poor market conditions. The project's own economic model may have problems, coupled with the lack of positive news stimulation, insufficient market confidence, and weak buying. Under the combined effect of multiple factors, the price of ARB continues to hit new lows.

Yesterday, the Labor Department announced the number of initial unemployment claims for the week: 231,000, which is similar to expectations. This is a positive for the market. The lack of growth in initial unemployment claims indicates that the employment situation is normal and does not increase the market's expectations of a recession.

The big macro uncertainties will still have to wait until September. The August non-agricultural and unemployment rate data will be released next Friday, and the August CPI data will be released the next Wednesday. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting at 2 a.m. on September 19. These three major events will land, and the monetary regulation policy for the second half of this year will basically have a clear outline.