一位匿名老哥

If you want to learn more about my brother, you can enter my plaza, where there are more shares.

In recent days, AI has been rising significantly; the main trend is already clear. In this round of rebound, many coins haven't really gained much. Don't fantasize about a season for all altcoins; the funds are only enough to boost certain coins. Let those worthless coins fade away on their own.

After taking a look at the table, it is indeed much better than when we had the imitation bear market back then, but the overall capital inflow is not very strong.

From the K-line, BTC's market share does not show any signs of a pullback, so I judge that this is still a localized altcoin PVP rebound market, rather than a true altcoin season.

Recently, those who bought the dip and made a profit can liquidate a portion; I do not think this is a large altcoin season market. Right now, it seems to be a return of some internal funds, which is my subjective judgment based on the current capital flow data. I will continue to wait for signals; this is not the area for me to place heavy bets.

Today is still the day of the meme coins mobilization. The altcoin market is divided into three factions: meme coins, AI sector, and large-cap blue-chip coins (SUI). It's best to avoid the neglected altcoins for now. Currently, there is structural inflow of funds into the market. For those playing with small-cap meme coins, remember to manage your positions well. The volatility of these coins is approaching first-level volatility. Whether you are going long or short, using leverage can easily lead to liquidation. Don't lose all your money playing with these. These small-cap altcoins are clearly being manipulated by the big players, so be careful. If you read this article and still decide to play, and then get liquidated, come find me for a shocking experience ⚡️

Altcoins have had a significant pullback today, which is somewhat expected but also surprising. This round, everyone clearly feels that it’s hard to play; those altcoin investors who don’t understand how to short or take profits in time have basically lost a lot. The main reason is still the insufficient funds in the market, which haven’t flowed into other altcoins. Bitcoin's market share has risen from 2022 to now, and aside from a one-month pullback last November (the altcoin season of November), it has been continuously climbing during other times. Therefore, during this continuous increase in Bitcoin's market share, it’s better not to buy altcoins recklessly. Even if some funds flow into certain altcoins, it’s only localized; this is what the experienced ones have always referred to as structural opportunities. If you still believe that blindly buying during a general rise can make money, the grass on your grave will be three meters high. In this round, you'll find that gains are mostly from the same few coins. If you want to play altcoins for high returns this time, you can only pick individual stocks and watch the flow of funds. Don’t naïvely believe in an altcoin season anymore; wait until Bitcoin’s market share turns around before expecting that.

Why you shouldn't play with small exchanges, especially with altcoins from small exchanges? Although their reverse transaction fees might be much higher than Binance, you must remember that exchanges are here to make money; the profits come from the users. Today, I will explain some of the intricacies to you.

The trading pairs on small exchanges, especially altcoins, are mostly data-driven by bots, with very poor depth. Slippage from a few thousand USDT positions can even exceed 1%. You might face a price difference of 2% when buying and selling.

You might say, 'Can't I just place a limit order?' Yes, placing a limit order can fix your buying or selling price, but don't forget, the counterparties on small exchanges are all bots, and they will adjust the price difference against you.

For example: If your sell order is at 2 USDT, on Binance the price might rise to 2 USDT and your order will get executed, but on a small exchange, it might be that by the time the price on Binance has risen to 2.01, your order will only then be taken by the bot, creating an invisible price difference.

Don't be greedy for small profits. I've used many exchanges, and only Binance is the most reliable. It is the leader among all exchanges for a reason. Other exchanges can offer you high 🍚 commissions because every time you trade, they make money. Don't be greedy for small profits.

If you haven't activated Binance's rebate, you can come to me; I do not recommend other small exchanges.

My rebate link: https://www.bmwweb.net/join?ref=ZLMG260L

Continue to pull in the second phase is still AI, the stronger become stronger, don't fantasize about any rebound, it's not yet the real imitation season, there isn't that much capital in the circle right now, it's all localized rising, watch the capital flow and then decide where to direct your bullets.

Currently, there is no sign of a turning point in market share. Even if there is a significant rebound from imitation products, it should also be structural. We should observe where the capital flows before deciding on our positions. A turning point in market share is when everything revives.

Don't worry if you miss out! There will be more opportunities!

Bitcoin's market share has been rising since 2022 and hasn't looked back. By observing previous data, we can clearly understand that when altcoin season arrives, Bitcoin's market share will definitely decline. Currently, there is no sign of a decline, so even if this wave is just the first shot of altcoin season, it's merely an appetizer, and there's no need to panic.

The real altcoin season will only occur when Bitcoin's market share is fluctuating at a high level. In the last bull market, BTC's market share reached a maximum of 72%. This time, due to the sheer number of altcoins, I estimate it will be difficult to reach above 72%. For now, we just need to focus on when the market share starts to turn; once it starts to turn, we can expect the real altcoin season to begin. 🫡

It's all AI. If this wave really turns out to be strong, then the capital's first preference should still be the AI sector. Starting today, don't short it; wait for a pullback to find a good entry.

Those who missed out shouldn't panic; the knockoffs are already discounted by 90%. Even if they double, it's still at a 80% discount. There is still a lot of room for it to return to its peak.

Cow return?!

$PERP
Reduced some positions, moved the remaining stop loss to 0.3. The data shows that the bulls are quite strong, but I see that even the meme coins are dropping now, and the perp rates are not fully topped off, so I decided to run part of it for now. In this market, earning a little from jungle farming is better than nothing.

$PERP
Three Key Factors for Pulling the Market: Low Market Value, Fully Circulated, High Negative Rate

Let it go, Azu, the outside is full of traps.

After watching the market for two days, the stocks being pumped are all low market cap shanzhai (copycat) companies. I estimate it's because there's not enough market capital, but some speculative funds still want to open the market to harvest retail investors, so they target these small caps to create a scheme. In the end, it will certainly go to zero. However, during the process of pumping these low market cap shanzhai stocks, if you short at the bottom, it can be very painful, because you not only have to bear the losses from an exponential increase but also face funding fees that may occur every 2 hours.

Take this voxel as an example. The position is over 70 million, but its market cap is only 15 million. Now, funding fees are collected every 2 hours. Assuming the operator has a net long position of 10 million, they only need to incur funding fees 50 times to break even. The extra money can also be used to pump the spot market, allowing the price to continue rising (in reality, the break-even period may be shorter because the value of the long position keeps increasing). They already control a large amount of the spot circulation, and with ongoing funding fees, they have a continuous supply of capital. Do you have a winning chance if you short? So if you’re not optimistic here, just stand aside and observe; don’t jump into the game and become fuel for the operators.

All are demon coins, now I feel that many of the scams are being driven by speculative funds, they pump and then run away. Recently, it's better to avoid chasing highs. If you see data that looks good when it just starts, you can chase a bit, but those that have already been pumped up have no cost-effectiveness.

This is why the old brother doesn't dare to take large positions; it has been too turbulent lately, and this yellow-haired guy has made the market a mess. Now it's all about betting on this yellow-haired guy's policies; how can we gamble on that?

$BABY
Why did the market rebound, but baby not follow and instead decline? Wasn't it rising strongly before?

It's simple, because the main players have already started to exit.

Comparing the data from the day before yesterday, it's very clear that the main players' positions have decreased significantly. Until they replenish their long positions, why are you still fantasizing that they will push the market up? Most of the counterfeit stocks are just air, and the self-pumping without consensus can only ride on the coattails of the main players. Don't fantasize about catching the main players at the bottom, because they won't offer you cheap chips, they will only throw you flying knives👀

$BABY
The pancake rebounds, but baby keeps going down, why is this?

It's simple, because the big players have started to unload their positions, the funds chasing highs and the funds trying to catch the bottom are all liquidity exits for the big players. When the main players start to run away, you shouldn't carelessly catch falling knives. Just like when the main players were pushing the price up a few days ago, you shouldn't casually try to time the top. This main player is still quite strong, they pushed the price up and cut a wave of retail investors, and now during the downturn, they are cutting another wave.

Let me explain to everyone, actually the profit from short selling is continuously decreasing. Take baby as an example, if you shorted at the peak of 0.167 and I shorted at 0.125, the profit difference now is less than 20%, but the risk you are taking is huge. Short selling requires certainty, not a huge risk-reward ratio.

$BABY
I checked the baby's data in the afternoon, and there are already obvious signs of the main long position leaving the market. What we need to do is very simple: just wait for a pullback and then enter the market, going with the trend and stepping in as it rises.

Recently, when the main force was pushing the market up, it was like playing against the main force, which is very risky because the rise is exponential. You might be holding on and suddenly lose more than 50%. Although most altcoins are performing poorly now, shorting strong coins on the left side is still too aggressive. We all know it’s going to collapse, so we should just wait for the main force to unload before we go in. The returns from shorting are continually decreasing, so there’s no need to pursue extreme price points.

Recently, I haven’t been trading with large positions; it's all small positions. To be honest, I’m not very optimistic about the overall environment; it’s been too turbulent lately. I’ll wait for things to stabilize a bit before increasing my position because I hate being stuck in a heavy position 👀