一位匿名老哥

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Recently, the frequency of posts from my brother has indeed decreased a lot, but it's not that I'm planning to withdraw from the scene or anything. I really don't understand the current market situation; shouting aimlessly is not my style. In this market, if someone confidently tells you that it will definitely rise or definitely fall, it's very likely just a big wolf with a long tail. No one can explain it clearly; we can only guess roughly. The market is very fragmented, and the overall environment is terrible.

Anyone with a discerning eye can see that the traces of manipulation in this market are too obvious. It really is hard to play. For friends who can't make money lately, there's no need to force it; just come back when it's possible to earn again. If you want to buy, just buy and don't touch it anymore. Gradually invest, play less with copycats, and the difficulty in short-term trading is currently very high.

Altcoins have shown signs of stirring this week, which is essentially following ETH. When ETH strengthens, funds tend to follow and make moves in altcoins, which can be understood this way. ETH - big players making moves, altcoins - smaller players making moves. If one wants to seek high returns, there are only two routes: leverage ETH or take large positions in altcoins. The probability of success with the former is higher than the latter. However, when facing extreme spikes, if leverage isn't controlled well, it could lead to failure. Therefore, I believe a strategy of taking a large position in ETH and a small position in altcoins with a set stop loss could be effective, sacrificing some profit to reduce risk exposure.

From the charts, it's clear that fund activity in altcoins has become noticeably active, but it still follows ETH. Now, ETH can be directly regarded as a barometer for the secondary market in the crypto world. Regardless of whether ETH is being manipulated or not, as long as it rises, altcoins will follow to some extent. One should then choose good altcoins based on the funding situation. The WCT and ANIME that were discussed with friends in the group are performing well recently. It’s best to find tokens favored by funds. There are too many altcoins now. Even if there is a rally in altcoins, I estimate it will be structural; a general rise with the current amount of funds is still quite difficult.

Artificial Bull Market?! MicroStrategy has purchased 4,020 BTC today at an average price of $106,237!

In this round of BTC bull market, MicroStrategy is undoubtedly one of the powerful driving forces. Figure 1 shows the historical purchase points of BTC by MicroStrategy over the years, and you will find that the frequency of purchases in the BTC 80k to 100k range is the highest ever. Think about it in reverse: if MicroStrategy is truly a firm believer in BTC, then why didn't they buy more BTC when it was in the 10k to 20k range? Here are two guesses: 1. They didn't have enough money to buy BTC at that time. 2. They were hesitant to buy more because market sentiment was very poor, and buying too much could lead to significant losses.

We can see that MicroStrategy's stock price has been strongly correlated with Bitcoin since 2020 (Figure 2). If I had to guess, it's actually because they enjoyed the benefits of rising stock prices brought by BTC's increase, that they began to shift the company's focus towards BTC, strongly binding their company to BTC.

Thus, a positive feedback loop is formed: Bitcoin price rises - company stock price rises - larger valuation, greater fame - can borrow more money - continue purchasing Bitcoin - Bitcoin price continues to rise. This is the purest form of finance, the purest form of a Ponzi scheme, and this round of BTC bull market is driven by institutions. It’s normal for retail investors to miss out; I’m just throwing out some thoughts and sharing what I see. Everyone is welcome to express their opinions in the comments section, and let’s discuss together.

Why is it so strange? Why is the big pancake at 110,000? I feel like people in the cryptocurrency circle are even less active than when it was 40,000 or 50,000. Is that right?

$ETH
From the data, it appears that there are short positions entering at the 8-hour level (the 8-hour open interest is rising, and the main contracts are flowing out). The bulls seem to be holding on, but mainly the bears are pushing the price down. This can also be seen from the candlestick chart where the bulls and bears are in a tug-of-war.

The night before last, I rehearsed the approximate trend with my friends. It will either break the previous high or create a range-bound fluctuation. If it creates a range-bound fluctuation, the upper edge will likely be the previous high.

At that time, the price was only about 3 points away from the previous high. The strategy allows for a defensive reduction of positions. If it breaks out and strengthens, it would only mean missing 3 points. If it goes into a fluctuation, then reducing positions or exiting will provide more room for maneuvering in response to the upcoming market, continuing to lower the holding cost to secure profits. Both scenarios have been prepared, and we just need to wait for the market to unfold. Currently, it seems we are heading towards a range-bound fluctuation.

For bottom fishing, the key levels to watch below are 2440, 2365, and 2248. These levels can all be considered. Although this round of main forces is acting strangely, we still need to maintain a bullish outlook by disregarding the fundamentals and policies. This is a continuation of an upward trend, and the market hasn't reached its conclusion yet.

The issue with Sui is very serious this time. If they don't compensate the users' money, then who would dare to invest their money in mining on the Sui chain? This would essentially kill the on-chain ecosystem, and the TVL would run dry, leaving this chain as a zombie chain.

In 2021, everyone was recommending people around them to enter the cryptocurrency space, as if just coming in to buy coins would make them rich.

Now, in 2025, with BTC breaking historical highs, I can only tell friends who want to enter and those who have just entered: "Don't come in, just work hard, and stop dreaming of getting rich in the crypto world."

$ANIME
Anime has been doing quite well today. In fact, there are always traces when the big players enter the market. This time, it seems to have just started and we caught it early. Before selecting a token, you need to do your homework on data, candlestick analysis, and fundamental analysis. Pressing the buy button is the easiest step. If you don't do enough research before buying, you might as well stick to trading ETH and BTC; these two are more straightforward. Right now, the data for anime also looks decent, but this big player likes to pump and dump. I feel the trading tactics resemble those used domestically. If you don’t have a position, wait for it to drop before buying. It will still pump when the time comes.

From my personal perspective, I still see the bulls. Just because no one is coming in now doesn't mean that no one will come in later. The main players are just setting up the game; it's just that the game hasn't started yet. Let's wait slowly and extend the cycle.

This round of losing money is not your fault, it's quite normal. Here, the funds are always engaged in PVP within the market, unlike before when outside funds were continually coming in. As long as those within the circle are brave enough to buy, they can make a profit.

The only external funds that have consistently come in this round are Bitcoin. Whenever you buy Bitcoin, you are almost guaranteed to make a profit, which demonstrates the power of external fund injection. Other coins are all about PVP within the market; you need to time your buying and selling well to turn a profit. Therefore, if retail investors don't have a good strategy, they should wait for the big money to flow in before going all in.

This round, if you don't have a good strategy, how do you expect to take money from the pockets of seasoned investors? Give up the fantasy; retail investors without any means are destined to be taken advantage of. 🌚

$ETH
Although the candlestick chart is very strong, I still feel that the sentiment in the market is quite gloomy, and everyone remains pessimistic about the overall situation. In the previous article, it was mentioned that this wave of rally is clearly a big rebound driven by the main force pushing up with money, rather than a natural increase due to sentiment and the overall environment being in place. At the current position, retail investors have a weak willingness to buy in. If the market ends at this position, then the main force will have to sell off the goods in the same way they bought them, and it is estimated that there won't be much profit to speak of.

In the past bull markets, there had to be funds from outside the circle entering the cryptocurrency market. This time, outside funds only bought Bitcoin and have not truly entered the pool of cryptocurrencies, so it is reasonable that the majority of coins are performing poorly at present. If the main force wants to create a big situation, they must pull out of the circle to allow those within the circle to profit from the large fluctuations, and then distribute the goods to outside funds together at the end; otherwise, it will only continue with PvP market conditions, with the remaining old retail investors and speculators fighting among themselves, and in the end, no one will make significant gains.

This round of old retail investors is either already close to losing everything or are too savvy, making it unlikely for them to take over. If they don't pull out of the circle, this wave of rebound can only be a false prosperity. If it is to rise, it must rise significantly.

$ETH
The recent drop in ETH was mainly caused by long positions being liquidated. It now appears that a daily level correction is underway. The strong support is in the 2059-2100 range. If it can drop to this area, I will consider bottom fishing on the left side. If it holds in the 2059-2100 range, it actually looks like a breakout retest from the candlestick perspective. However, the recent rapid increase has raised everyone's expectations for ETH's price movement. Currently, ETH has risen nearly 1000 USDT from its low point, so a pullback is to be expected.

What’s quite strange this time is that I haven't seen any new funds entering the crypto space. The recent rise in ETH can be definitively attributed to the actions of the market makers. Without pulling new funds into the market, it’s actually difficult for new investors to come in and take over. The veterans in the crypto space are either out of money or very savvy; it's not that easy to cut losses.

Therefore, if the main players really want to make a big profit, they still need to create a situation for external funds to take over.

Affected by the plunge of ETH, the whales in the market have also started to pull up their pants and run away. The current market behavior is driven by the whales, with ETH and Bitcoin being the big whales, and various altcoins being the small whales. The small whales need to follow the big whales, and here the whales also have to pay attention to ETH, especially since the trading volume is too large. If the sentiment here is not right, the selling pressure that the whales have to bear will be too great.

$DOGE
Just talked with my friends, doge is expected to go on a main upward trend

Comparing the data of pnut, neiro, and moodeng side by side, it is clear that moodeng is the strongest among them. These three should be the leading meme stocks in this round of rebound. If you participate here, I think the cost-performance ratio of moodeng will be higher than the other two.

We tentatively assume that this round of meme stocks will continue to surge as the market recovers. On this premise, no matter which meme you choose, I do not recommend using any leverage for the following three reasons:

1. The increase is too large, and you won't be able to hold a heavy position. When your meme position is fully leveraged, I estimate that every 15-minute candlestick will make you extremely anxious. The volatility of memes already carries leverage by itself. If you are using full leverage at 5 times, your actual leverage may be equivalent to Bitcoin's 20 times. Unless you have a strong heart, it is very difficult to achieve a price doubling outcome. Even if it rises, you are likely to sell too early, only making a portion of the gains while bearing significant risk.
2. When the market corrects, the meme's pullback can be too large, and with leverage, it is easy for the price to come back down, resulting in lost positions. This wave of moodeng has halved directly from 0.34. If you entered at the peak, even with 2 times leverage, you would be liquidated. Once you are liquidated, this market has nothing to do with you. Even if it later increases tenfold, you will not make any money.
3. After using leverage, your other positions may be affected. You may be forced to liquidate other positions due to the large pullback of the meme, which poses a very high risk.

In summary, using leverage means taking on greater risk, but it does not necessarily lead to higher profits. In a highly volatile market, the key is to take advantage of the volatility to amplify profits, not to gamble with heavy positions.

Today meme has a big rebound, but many altcoins are still quiet. Why do the coins I buy never rise, while those I don't buy keep climbing?

Actually, I've talked about this a lot with everyone. It's very difficult for altcoins to have a broad rise this time. Altcoins without a strong market maker will only slowly decline and fade away. Here are a few reference indicators: if more than 2 of them are met, don't think that there might be a rebound and try to get in.

1. The spot trading volume of BN has been below 5 million for a long time.
2. The contract trading volume has been below 20 million for a long time.
3. The K-line is continuously declining, and any occasional upward breakthroughs are also false breakthroughs.

The Matthew effect in this market will become more and more obvious; the strong will remain strong. Your money doesn't come from nowhere, so don't invest in those trash altcoins.

Everyone may have noticed one thing, which is that the current funds are still insufficient to support the entire market's altcoin season. Whether it's the AI sector that fired the first shot or the meme sector from a few days ago, funds will only flow to certain cryptocurrencies. Most cryptocurrencies will either be rapidly sold off after a surge or will not rise enough, but when the overall market corrects, they will plummet. Retail investors who focus on altcoins this round are truly fortunate, as they are taking more hits than they are gaining.

However, regarding the ETH weekly chart, I recommend not to be too quick to turn bearish. Focus on finding the right targets; the shotgun strategy may not be very applicable right now.

It seems that the hippo has been pumped up with money, but small-scale withdrawals happen very quickly. Personally, I do not recommend chasing high prices for the second wave.

With this kind of coin, don't be fooled by its sharp increase; if you didn't enter during the main upward wave, it will be very uncomfortable to enter at any position in between. Even if it eventually goes up, you might lose your position.

Especially the day before yesterday, the hippo suddenly encountered a head-cutting incident. If you used leverage, you could easily lose your position. Such a large bearish candlestick can only be created by major players closing their positions. Even if it continues to rise here, the adjustment shouldn't be that fast; being cautious doesn't hurt.

$REZ
From the data perspective, rez seems to be a project with capital involvement. This project can be considered a small project within the ETH ecosystem, with a relatively low market capitalization. If ETH continues to strengthen, there is still considerable potential for this coin.

From the market perspective, there are only two effective points for stop-loss: one at 0.147 and another at 0.107. However, recent fluctuations have been significant, and the 0.147 position may not necessarily be a strong support level. The overall market pullback could break through this level at any time, so it’s advisable to buy close to 0.147, treating it as a short-term support level, while setting the actual stop-loss at 0.117 or 0.107. Extend the holding period and reduce the position size. Since we are in a bull market now, we should leverage fluctuations to amplify gains and avoid going all-in with heavy positions to chase profits, as this can easily lead to losses in a bull market. Many times when the price rises, one might find their position already gone, thus missing out on the subsequent gains.