武帝为此

$BTC $ETH Several manifestations of capital outflow
1. Phase high position strong turn weak and abnormal volume
2. Phase high point upward angle slows down (whether there is volume or not is not good)
3. Phase high point upward deceleration occurs, and there is no obvious shrinkage
4. Phase high point volume sideways (volume stagnation) (continuous surge and fall with volume)
5. Phase high point downtrend with volume
6. Accelerate and then struggle with upward volume

Main capital outflow,
does not mean that the main force is unloading, whether it is washing the disk or unloading,
we should avoid risks when main capital flows out.
Capital outflow does not mean there will be no opportunities later,
main capital is affected by the environment, and may enter again later

$HYPER The market is strong, and the knockoffs are also taking off in various ways. Currently, from the data, there has not been a large-scale net outflow of contracts across the network; even short-term net outflows are receiving continuous capital inflow. There are no signs of major funds building short positions at the top. If there is profit in short positions, it's better to exit. The fee rate of two points is charged every hour, which is unbearable. There's no need to act as a counterparty to market sentiment. In the short term, the probability of not reaching the top is very high. It’s best to wait for a clear signal of major funds building short positions before entering to short #BTC再创新高 #趋势交易策略

The analysis before $PENGU indicated that the rise of the penguin is not the result of a single large player manipulating the market, but rather a performance of multiple main funds taking turns to push it up. Once this type of rise, which forms a market consensus, ends, it becomes a game of who can run faster. Currently, there is a slight capital inflow in the short term, but overall, in the 12h and 24h time frames, it is still primarily focused on short positions. Those looking to go long should wait and see. From the perspective of the holdings and changes in total value of the cryptocurrency, the base positions have basically matched the 7-day price increase of the coins. Additionally, today’s overall market rise did not drive the penguin up, making it difficult for significant increases to occur in the future. #美国加征关税 #现货与合约策略

$PENGU After the last call to buy the penguin, I want to give a warning to the brothers who are currently in the nearby price range: the market has changed. From the data, it can be seen that short-term contracts have repeatedly shown m-level outflows, and the speed of capital return is getting slower. The 24-hour level open interest is mainly focused on short positions. The major players have not aggressively increased short positions at the top but have chosen a conservative selling method through oscillation and gradual decline. Currently, the trading volume of spot contracts has not significantly decreased, and caution must be exercised at this top position #现货与合约策略

$PENGU Even if there is a capital outflow at a certain point in time, once the market collectively forms or shows signs of formation, one must be cautious about short selling. Currently, from the data, the short-term capital of the Penguin contract is maintaining a small inflow, and even if there are occasional large outflows, the speed of capital return is also very quick. The changes in the two open interest data also correspond to this slow rising market. There has been no large-scale distribution of chips in the spot market, and there is still a limited range of pullbacks. Without breaking the downward trend, the same advice applies: be cautious about short selling #BTC重返11万

$DMC is similar to this coin, the dealer's base warehouse is equally insufficient, even the corresponding changes in the holding amount and total value of the currency are quite similar, with a periodic top appearing, see previous analysis for details. The only difference is that $DMC needs to be a bit tougher, short positions are not increasing as fast as $H, retail investors are somewhat chasing high openings, the sentiment is better than $H

The position $H 53 is likely at its peak now. The speed of the main force's spot selling is not fast, but the contracts have already begun to significantly layout short positions. At the 15m level, the positions of the two-point cryptocurrency have increased, but their total position value has only increased by a maximum of one point, which cannot keep up. Not to mention the larger discrepancies at the 30m and 1h levels. From the 7d level, the market maker's cryptocurrency position is not large, and the bottom positions are not thick enough to support the current 100-point increase while trading sideways at a high level. Caution is needed when bottom-fishing.

Large funds have started to sell off $PENGU , accompanied by a reduction in long positions and an increase in some short positions accelerating the decline 📉. The benefits of the ETF seem to have been exhausted. Next, we will see how the support below holds up. The daily level's rising candlestick is primarily driven by market collaboration rather than manipulation by any single large player. Be cautious about shorting in the absence of breaking this collaboration.

$FUN From the data, it can be seen that the main force entered a lot of short positions during the consolidation period, and the holding amount of the cryptocurrency did not change much over 3 days, while the total value of the holding amount dropped about 16 points over 3 days. The short-term levels also show that this wave of decline is due to the sudden increase in short positions by the main force, combined with the outflow of over 500,000 in spot trading, which pushed the price down. Looking at the candlestick chart, it feels like the high-level consolidation with decreasing volume is very tempting to enter, right? If the average price of the initial position is low, it’s fine to catch a rebound and exit, but if you entered the initial position at the high point in a consolidation range and your position is slightly larger, it could be quite troublesome.

The trend of $BANANAS31 feels very similar to $WCT , both experiencing a crazy surge and a massive liquidation at high positions, followed by a significant volume drop. From the data, it appears that the previously fleeing bulls are slowly returning, and the holdings of cryptocurrencies at the 48h level have also come back. Additionally, from the candlestick chart, it can be observed that occasionally there are strong downward spikes followed by a clear recovery, indicating that there may be new main forces supporting the market. It is estimated that some floating capital that was trapped during the last round of selling by the old institutions is now trying to break free. For this type of currency, it's best not to go long too much; be cautious of a follow-up similar to $WCT , as another liquidation may occur.

$FUN If you dare to go short when the market is empty, I will also go short when you are afraid to do so. From the main upward wave seen yesterday morning, it is clear that the market maker has a high level of control. The amplitude is over 20 points in a minute, and it drops just the same with an amplitude of over 20 points in a minute. Even the one-hour level of fluctuations at high positions cannot be maintained. However, sometimes I feel like I'm recklessly shorting with a negative rate at the hourly level; I truly am a talent.

$FUN The methods of the dealer are very disgusting, they maintain a negative rate by holding high to force a short squeeze, and when it drops, it bounces back to hit the stop loss on short positions, eating both long and short positions themselves at the top. The dealer's long positions are almost cleared out. Everyone understands this kind of technique, but there's nothing we can do about it: "I will just keep my coin price here to eat your fees, whether you want to close your short positions or not" #加密市场回调

The recent surge in the rankings feels like the last frenzy before a black swan event in the crypto world. There have been many altcoins rising against the trend, all of which have relatively small market capitalizations, with many not even reaching 100 million in liquid market value. Whether it’s the $BID we discussed yesterday, or the $AERGO and $FUN we talked about today, they have all remained flat or even increased while the main market is unstable or even declining. This is very different from the past when seasonal mainstream coins would trigger a rebound in altcoins. It resembles a situation where manipulators are frantically pushing up coin prices in the last moments, attracting market liquidity from mainstream coins to take advantage and offload #加密市场回调

$FUN what currency can be shorted, what currency cannot be shorted, these two are typical examples, $AERGO during the first wave of price increase and selling, not only did long positions significantly exit, but short positions also continued to enter with subsequent retracements, while $FUN simultaneously increased prices and did not significantly reduce long positions, continuing to consolidate at high levels to lure short positions #加密市场回调

$AERGO 4h level total network open interest has already run over 5 points, the current situation is roughly heading towards an M-top. Although the coin price maintains a high negative premium at a high level, the short positions have not significantly fled; instead, they have been continuously increasing during the rise, indicating that the main force is already starting to build positions at a high level. It’s safer to wait for a pin and for the main force to push out the remaining retail short positions before entering to short. This is raising while bearing the risk of a market correction, and if it really comes down, it won’t just drop a little #加密市场回调

$BID Typical pullback after a spike, to be honest, this type of coin is not recommended to play, the pool is too small, it's easy to hit the stop loss and then follow the trend #我的交易风格

$ALT In fact, this coin looks quite good from the data perspective. The holding amount of the coin has doubled in two days, but the coin price has only doubled from its highest point. At this price level, there is still about a 10% increase potential. However, I really don't want to go long. Ever since I was cut off by WCT, a lot of times, the coin price, aside from data analysis, also depends on the mood of the main force. If the main force wants to cut you, they will cut you without hesitation.

The market of $ALT is experiencing a decline while maintaining horizontal oscillation. The market rebounds and accumulates strength to break through the previous resistance level and rise 📈. I must say that the main force behind this coin indeed has some strength. The short-term strategy is mainly to increase long positions, while short positions scattered and fled directly from the highs 📉, showing no signs of a pattern. Looking bullish in the short term, I will look for opportunities to enter and short.

I've been busy with some life matters lately, so I haven't had much time to analyze the market or post. Sometimes, when I have nothing to do, I've grabbed a few alpha contract data for short-term trades, which is like getting the minimum guarantee. Now that I have some free time, I must continue analyzing and working. Currently, the market is weak, so I will mainly focus on shorting and see if there are any opportunities to make a move on #币安Alpha上新 .

$BTC $ETH Currently, the market is unstable. Basically, most altcoins find it hard to achieve success, and the main capital is also afraid of being targeted, especially for this kind of coin that has already surged in the short term $NXPC . Be careful of the main altcoin capital fleeing if the market drops, that kind of sell-off is truly terrifying #加密市场回调 #以色列伊朗冲突