Vũ Minh Nhật - STB

BITCOIN CYCLE – WHEN WILL THE NEXT PEAK APPEAR?

Bitcoin is exactly repeating the growth pattern of previous cycles, with breakout points – acceleration – peak formation occurring in an astonishing repetitive sequence.

Below are the statistics from the last 3 cycles:

🔁 CYCLE 1 (2013):

✅ Breakout: January 2013

🚀 Peak: November 2013

⏱ Time from breakout to peak: 273 days

💰 Peak price: ~1,100 USD

🔁 CYCLE 2 (2017):

✅ Breakout: December 2016

🚀 Peak: August 2017

⏱ Time: 233 days

💰 Peak price: ~20,000 USD

🔁 CYCLE 3 (2021):

✅ Breakout: October 2020

🚀 Peak: September 2021

⏱ Time: 328 days

💰 Peak price: ~69,000 USD

📍 CURRENT (CYCLE 2025?):

✅ Breakout has occurred: At the end of December 2023

⏱ As of today (21/05/2025): ~140 days since breakout

📆 Expected next peak:

💸 Target price range:

Based on the long-term logarithmic channel (purple in the chart), the cycle peak could reach:

➡️ From 290,000 USD to 400,000 USD with a timeframe around Q1 2026

The analysis is for reference based on historical cycle patterns. Not an investment recommendation.

History can change. Target prices may be incorrect, and timelines may not be accurate. But with the upcoming global money pumping perspective, the price point of 100k in the next 3-5 years still seems CHEAP.

Source ST:

What do you think, is it feasible? Because I find it difficult.

Officially docked at 111,111 waiting for sw for altcoin to take off, be patient my friends, BTC has a new position now

Can everyone feel the market? Recently, it has been forming a rising and falling mentality, making us regret small amounts, trading back and forth. During this time, we need to be calm; the only strategy is to wait for buying opportunities and DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging). If we buy and sell too frequently, we will lose out on major waves. When the price rises, we buy at a high price, then it drops again, and we sell just to see it rise again. We need to allocate our capital wisely from now on. I am still determined to use the DCA method from now until July, just wait and accumulate, not selling in and out. A small loss is something I can bear; when the price drops, I will DCA to lower the cost. If it drops by 50%, I will DCA again. As long as I average the price and double my investment, I will cash out my initial capital and hold the profits until I feel it's enough to take profits later. I am still closely following DOT and MUBARAK because the trading volume of MUBARAK is quite steady, and I feel it will rise a lot. If DOT accumulates enough shorts, it will go long. We must accept the pain to achieve results. MUBARAK at $0.047 and DOT at $4.0, still holding on!

When will this monster stop, brothers? The waves are soaring high, is there a chance to reach the peak gold at this level? The gold price domestically has surpassed the world price already.

Let's look back at BTC when I drew it before, this time going up to 88-89000, it may go down again, brothers should consider longing.
Prediction for BTC to drop back to 88, it may go up next week but still drop back, deep drop in 2-3 weeks, the spikes at 68-69 will probably be in May-June, for those who have entered positions, just wait for BTC to return to 68-69 and 72-76 to assess!
I am averaging the price at 4.0 and still waiting for it to come back to 2.5 to accumulate more, target Dot 8-12-16

Gold has broken, brothers! #GOLD I told you in the previous post! Hic! BTC has also broken, only my prediction for ETH was slightly off, please forgive me! But the trend for this third quarter, I still predict it will increase!

BTC DOM decreases, then the market will rise. So, where do you think BTC DOM will drop to next, and to what range will it fall?

🔴The list of imposed taxes is below, let's take a look.
🟢The tax has been announced, gold has gone up, and after the tax is imposed, coins will drop. Now we just wait for the crypto war to end for a better outlook, as gold still needs to rise, so Russia continues to bomb and occupy. In this third quarter, coins will improve, and by the end of the second quarter, gold will gradually cool down.

The US declares worldwide taxation and economic independence with reciprocal tax levels:
🇨🇱 Chile 10%
🇮🇳 India 26%
🇮🇱 Israel 17%
🇧🇷 Brazil 10%
🇨🇳 China 34%
🇯🇵 Japan 24%
🇹🇷 Turkey 10%
🇹🇼 Taiwan 32%
🇻🇳 Vietnam 46%
🇵🇰 Pakistan 29%
🇹🇭 Thailand 36%
🇦🇺 Australia 10%
🇲🇾 Malaysia 24%
🇨🇴 Colombia 10%
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka 44%
🇸🇬 Singapore 10%
🇮🇩 Indonesia 32%
🇰🇭 Cambodia 49%
🇵🇭 Philippines 17%
🇨🇭 Switzerland 31%
🇧🇩 Bangladesh 37%
🇰🇷 South Korea 25%
🇿🇦 South Africa 30%
🇬🇧 United Kingdom 10%
🇪🇺 European Union 20%

What is happening, give me a belief in the market, everything collapsed like an earthquake!
🔥 Trading bot malfunction? A series of tokens plummeted 50% in just 30 minutes on Binance
📉 On April 1, 2025, a series of tokens on Binance suddenly dropped sharply by 50% in just 30 minutes, causing the market to tremble.
📌 What happened?
Data from Binance recorded:
🚨 Act I, The AI Prophecy (ACT): -50%
🚨 DeXe (DEXE): -30%
🚨 dForce (DF): -20%
⏰ Incident time: Started around 18:00 VN and occurred extremely quickly.
💥 Other tokens like HIPPO, BANANA31, TST, LUMIA also dropped sharply, but not as deeply as ACT.
🧐 Noteworthy points:
There were no negative news or major events prior to this.
The affected tokens are unrelated, raising suspicions of a trading bot error or market maker algorithm issue.
Not just Binance, other CEX and DEX exchanges were similarly affected.
💡 What could be the cause?
👀 Hypothesis 1: Malfunctioning trading bot?
Some experts suggest that the market-making bot malfunctioned, executing mass sell orders out of control.
Previously, there have been trading bot incidents that caused flash crashes on major exchanges.
⚡ Hypothesis 2: Liquidation of large positions?
Some funds or whales may have been liquidated, triggering a domino effect in the market.
📊 Hypothesis 3: Technical error from Binance?
Binance has not confirmed the incident, but the fact that only some tokens were affected may indicate a problem related to the trading system.
🚀 What will happen next?
🔎 Investors are waiting for Binance to speak up.
⚠️ This event is a warning about the dangers of algorithmic trading and unexpected volatility in the crypto market.

#GOLD $GOLD 🟢🟡 has reached a new peak, take a look at the quarterly and monthly wave columns, it's uncertain when it will stop, however, the current wave column is already too high, I'm just afraid of buying at this moment as it's a long-term peak, because previously it created a mentality where the more fearful people are of rising gold, the more it goes up, just buy now and eventually it won't keep increasing, but how can those buying gold out there see such a high wave column, when it drops it can drop by tens of millions for a gold piece, with the world gold at 29xx-30xx, it could be a long-term peak, the gold market has been running at an alarming price in the last 2 years, like a balloon waiting to burst, at this point, be very cautious, the gold in Vietnam back at 8x-92 I still found acceptable, but at this point, I'm very scared!!!
🟡 the possibility of pushing the hype and switching #GOLD to crypto and stocks in the near future, the gold price is being pushed too strongly, be cautious, at this point we are entering too late, it's like a mouse trap adding a bit more and closing the gate.
$$BTC currently trying to hold the 8x area, but soon the probability of dropping to the 7x area is very high! The 7x area will be the buying zone for the market! Crypto should be bought when BTC drops to 7x.xxx

What's the matter that he's crying, everyone? Could it be that his wife left him? 🤣

🟢This is the best time to invest #ETH $ETH
everything will remain stable until the end of Q2 this year, Q3 will see a crypto market explosion.
🟡 $GOLD #GOLD will rise in the last part of this year, in Q2 it will rise once more and at the end of Q2 will drop back to the range of 29xx-3020. Look at the quarterly gold wave column, it has been very high already, a strong correction will have to happen. It is best not to enter gold at this moment as the profit margin is no longer high; trading gold is not advisable, but purchasing for long-term holding may be acceptable for a target of 2-5 years.

🟢Still predicting BTC to reach 9x in the next 2 months with a range of $114,000 - $130,000 for the period close to the end of 2025. As for this wave, there are some altcoins that will take off, but BTC is still the ancestor of the field. It may seem like it wants to go back to 67,000, but BTC will move sideways around 7x and then reverse up, so around this time next month when it returns to 7x, keep adding DCA for DOT.

Gold has reached a new peak, this move is really unpredictable, everyone is rushing to buy and rushing to sell, and then it increases, what is gold really doing right now !?

🟢The relationship between gold prices and inflation
Gold is often viewed as a "safe haven" asset and a hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, the real value of currency decreases, prompting investors to turn to gold to preserve wealth. However, the gold price that is "sufficient to offset inflation" is not a fixed number but depends on:
1. Actual inflation rate: Measured by the consumer price index (CPI) or core inflation.
2. Strength of the USD: Since gold is priced in USD on international markets, when the USD strengthens, gold prices often face downward pressure and vice versa.
3. Monetary policy: The interest rates of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other central banks affect the opportunity cost of holding gold (a non-yielding asset).
4. **Geopolitical and global economic factors**: Economic instability or trade wars can drive gold prices higher than necessary to "offset" inflation.

🟢Current situation (March 2025)
- According to recent data, global gold prices at the beginning of 2025 fluctuate around 2,600–2,700 USD/ounce, with some moments exceeding 3,000 USD/ounce (based on reports from Vietstock and StoneX). This reflects concerns about rising inflation and instability from U.S. tariff policies under President Donald Trump.
- Domestically, SJC gold bars and gold rings are priced at about 84–96 million VND/tael, depending on the time, with a significant increase since the beginning of 2024.
- Inflation in Vietnam during the first two months of 2025 was recorded at 3.27% (according to the General Statistics Office), while global inflation, particularly in the U.S., remains a critical factor influencing gold prices.

🟢As of today, March 21, 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has confirmed receipt of the application for approval of the Polkadot Spot ETF from 21Shares. Specifically, Nasdaq, representing 21Shares, submitted Form 19b-4 on March 17, 2025, marking the official start of the SEC's review process. However, the SEC's "confirmation of receipt" does not mean they have "accepted" or approved this ETF.

🟢According to the process, the SEC has 45 days for an initial review, meaning a decision to approve, deny, or extend the review period could be announced around the end of April 2025. Currently, there has been no official announcement from the SEC regarding the final approval of the Polkadot ETF, so the answer is: **No, the SEC has not officially accepted the Polkadot ETF yet, the process is still under review.**

BTC has reached 82xxx, prepare for a short-term uptrend

For those who ask which country $DOT belongs to!?

🟢Polkadot (DOT) is not a "coin of a country" in the traditional sense, as it is a decentralized cryptocurrency not tied to any specific nation. However, the Polkadot project was initiated and developed by the Web3 Foundation, a non-profit organization based in **Zug, Switzerland**. The Web3 Foundation was established in 2017 by Gavin Wood (one of the co-founders of Ethereum), along with collaborators such as Robert Habermeier and Peter Czaban, to promote blockchain technology and the decentralized web (Web3).

Therefore, if we consider the origin of the organization behind the project, Polkadot can be associated with **Switzerland**. However, the DOT coin itself is a global digital asset, not confined by national borders. It operates on the Polkadot blockchain network, designed to connect multiple blockchains and run by a worldwide community of users.

Polkadot (DOT) is not a "coin of a country" in the traditional sense, as it is a decentralized cryptocurrency, not belonging to any specific nation. However, the Polkadot project was initiated and developed by the Web3 Foundation, a non-profit organization based in **Zug, Switzerland**. The Web3 Foundation was established in 2017 by Gavin Wood (one of the co-founders of Ethereum), along with collaborators such as Robert Habermeier and Peter Czaban, to promote blockchain technology and the decentralized web (Web3).

Therefore, if we consider the origin of the organization behind the project, Polkadot can be associated with **Switzerland**, but the DOT coin itself is a global digital asset, not limited by national borders. It operates on the Polkadot blockchain network, designed to connect multiple different blockchains and run by a community of users worldwide.

Currently, $DOT Polkadot 2.0 will be announced this year, and it is highly likely to be approved by the SEC. The expected price trend will be as shown above, and the market will experience 2 months of slight ups and downs without strong increases. The price range that everyone is speculating about is $8, currently the price is very good and accumulating around 4,x.

Today is 15-03-2025.

🟢Coin $TRUMP and #PI have done a great job recently in attracting new people to the market (Newbie), however, the market is still not attractive enough to draw them in for investment with enthusiasm.

🟢 Before diving into the analysis, I want to share the concept of BTC DOM for everyone to understand.

#BTCDominance or BTC. D represents the percentage of market capitalization that Bitcoin holds over the total market capitalization of the entire crypto market. BTC Dominance is one of the popular indicators used by many Holders and Traders for their trading strategies.

🟢 When BTC Dominance increases, it is a sign that money is flowing into BTC.
🔴 When BTC Dominance decreases, it is a sign that money is flowing into altcoins or stablecoins.

🔴 In the near future, there is a possibility that #BTCDOMINACE will drop to the level of 56-57%, which implies that the market will experience a short uptrend. The weekly, monthly, and quarterly frames all show continuous green levels of BTCDOM, indicating that market capitalization is being depleted, and altcoins are not yet receiving enough new money into the market. Partly because the big players are still concerned about political issues and do not have much time to talk about crypto, and partly because new players do not have enough skills to participate in trading more frequently, and due to the current attractive flow of money into gold.

🟢 Trust me, when #GOLD reaches a certain balanced level of inflation, its attractiveness will diminish and it will no longer yield much profit, then investors will shift their portfolios to #Crypto and stocks (#Stock ). June, September, and December this year are three periods forecasted for interest rate cuts in the US, which will witness the explosion of crypto starting from the end of Q2 - 2025 onwards. In the next article, I will outline the direction of BTC DOM for us to consider.