From a deep analysis of the current overall performance of the market, we hold an optimistic attitude towards the continuation of the bullish trend and future market expectations. In the operational logic of the financial market, pullbacks are an indispensable part of an upward trend; they do not signify the end of the bullish trend, but rather a form of accumulation and adjustment. Once the pullback is completed, it is highly likely that the market will return to a strong bullish upward pace.
From the daily chart perspective, although there is certain pullback space in the current upward trend, the price remains firmly above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands in the short term. This position not only serves as an important technical support reference but also reflects that bullish forces still hold a relative advantage in the medium to short term. The morning's short-term trend shows a pattern of first pulling back and then stabilizing and recovering lost ground, a pattern that is relatively common in the volatile financial market, where both bulls and bears are testing their strength during the early trading session.
Based on the above market performance, in terms of operational strategy, it is recommended that investors focus on key levels for gradual operations. Regarding position control, given the uncertainty of market volatility, it is advisable to moderately reduce position size to lower potential risk exposure. At the same time, the stop-loss level can be set more loosely, as setting it too narrowly during market pullbacks can easily be triggered by normal price fluctuations, leading to premature exits and missing subsequent upward trends.
Looking ahead to this week, based on a comprehensive judgment of macro trends and micro technical indicators, it is highly likely that the bulls will set new short-term highs. Although the pullback space has expanded with market volatility, the overall market is still in a transitional phase of bullish accumulation. Intraday, considering the trend of rising prices, a short-term pattern of pulling back and then stabilizing and recovering may occur again. Operationally, it is still essential to accurately grasp key levels and implement a gradual operation strategy. From the analysis of the four-hour chart, the current 4-hour chart shows the potential for another rally to break through previous highs. After a series of convoluted consolidations, prices are continuously accumulating momentum, and with the gradual rise of lows, the market is building strength, waiting for the right moment to break through current highs, thereby opening up new upward space.
2. Operational Suggestions
It is recommended to establish bullish positions in the price range of 93500 - 92800 for BTC, with target price levels looking at the 95000 - 98000 range.
【For reference only, please proceed with caution when entering the market】
In today’s (May 1st, Thursday) BTC market, the trend characteristics are significant. Recently, the overall market rhythm has remained in a fluctuating state, with intense competition between long and short positions, and no clear unilateral market direction. Both sides frequently switch dominance, and this fluctuating rhythm has been consistently maintained.
In terms of volatility, the market fluctuations are relatively small. Due to the lack of strong stimulus from news, the market finds it difficult to break free from the fluctuating pattern and establish a unilateral trend. From a technical analysis perspective, the structure of the 4-hour chart is particularly clear, intuitively reflecting the current fluctuating state.
2. Analysis of Key Support and Resistance Levels
In terms of price range, the bottom area of 93000 serves as an important support level, having withstood multiple rounds of price testing without being effectively broken, demonstrating strong support strength. The resistance level around 95500 is also very obvious; when the price frequently approaches this area, it faces suppression and retreats.
This fluctuating rhythm has lasted for more than ten days, and the market is waiting for new catalytic factors. Tomorrow (Friday), the non-farm payroll data will be released, which is an important time point. If, after the non-farm data is released, the market still cannot break the current range and establish a unilateral trend, then the breakthrough may have to be postponed until next week.
3. Suggested Trading Strategy
(1) Short-Term Trading Thoughts
Based on the current fluctuating market, short-term trading strategies can be formulated around the range fluctuations. Specifically, when the price rises to the 95300~96000 area, short positions can be considered, targeting the price range of 93500 - 92000. If the price retraces to the 93000 support area without effectively breaking down, a long position can be taken, looking again towards the 95000 area. Through this high sell low buy method, trades can be actively participated in within the range. During operations, it is essential to closely monitor the price performance around resistance and support levels, and to set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage risks.
The current Bitcoin movement is relatively small, and there is a certain resistance above, so we will continue to use the morning strategy, shorting in the range of 95,500~96,000, aiming for a gain of 2000~4000.
4.30 Bitcoin Market Depth Analysis and Strategy Sharing
1. Review and Recap of Yesterday's Market
On April 29, we provided a bearish strategy for Bitcoin at the 95500 level. This judgment proved to be an accurate reflection of market trends, with a significant correction occurring in the early hours, where the price dropped to a low of 93700, successfully providing considerable profit potential for investors following the strategy. This fully demonstrates the timeliness and effectiveness of the strategy.
4.30 Bitcoin Market Depth Analysis and Strategy Sharing
2. In-Depth Technical Analysis of Current Market
(1) Hourly Chart Pattern Interpretation
From an hourly chart perspective, Bitcoin's price movement exhibits highly valuable pattern characteristics. Previously, the candlestick chart recorded four consecutive bearish candles, breaking the support of the lower Bollinger Band, forming an intuitive visual signal of “breakdown and decline.” It is noteworthy that when the price touched the 93700 level, a significant lower shadow “pin bar” phenomenon occurred, indicating strong support at this price level, where bears encountered resistance from bulls, prompting a subsequent price rebound.
(2) Technical Indicator Analysis
1. MACD Indicator: The current MACD indicator is at a critical change phase, with green bars continuing to accumulate, releasing important information. In technical analysis logic, the accumulation of green bars in MACD typically indicates that bearish momentum is gradually waning, while bullish strength begins to build, laying the groundwork for a potential trend reversal. This not only serves as potential support for a price rebound but also prepares the technical foundation for the next wave of market movement.
2. Bollinger Band Indicator: The middle band of the Bollinger Bands has become a key dividing line for the current market. If Bitcoin's price can successfully rise above the middle band, it will indicate that bullish strength is gaining an upper hand, and market sentiment is likely to shift from a short-term correction to an upward trend. At that time, the price may once again test the important resistance level of 95500.
3. Trading Strategy
(1) Strategy Recommendations
Based on the above technical analysis, we believe that in the current market environment, 95500 remains a highly valuable key price level. This level serves as both a previous resistance point and creates strong psychological pressure in the market. Therefore, one can attempt to position bearish trades when the price rebounds near 95500. The target price is set in the range of 93500 - 91500, corresponding to a profit potential of 2000 - 4000 points.