Looking at the $BONK /USDT 4H chart, here’s a quick technical outlook based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and market structure:
🔍 Key Observations: * Price Zone: BONK is currently trading around 0.00001988, just under a premium supply zone (highlighted in red). This area has already seen some rejection. * Recent BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) show bullish continuation, but... * Weak High Tagged: The recent push to ~0.00002033 touched a weak high, suggesting potential liquidity grab or inducement. * Imbalance Zones: Several fair value gaps (FVGs) or demand blocks are unfilled below: * Around 0.00001782 * Around 0.00001650–0.00001500
⚖️ Equilibrium Zones: * Equilibrium and EQBOS (Equal BOS) zones lie lower, suggesting the price may return to rebalance.
🧠 SMC Interpretation: * Current Setup: The price is in premium (above equilibrium) and close to supply. Unless a strong bullish BOS occurs above 0.00002033 with follow-through, we might see a retracement to: * 0.00001780 (FVG + liquidity zone) * Possibly deeper toward 0.00001600–0.00001500 (institutional discount zone)
✅ Bullish Bias If: * Price breaks and holds above 0.00002033 (weak high) with volume, flipping the premium zone to demand.
⚠️ Bearish Caution If: * Price gets rejected again and closes below 0.00001782, expect a pullback toward equilibrium or deeper FVGs.
1. Market Context: • Trend: Strong uptrend; BTC pushing past $90,000 with strong bullish momentum. • RSI: ~79.15 – Overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback or at least consolidation. • MACD: Still bullish; momentum intact. No confirmed weakness yet.
1. Moving Averages (MA50 & MA200): • MA(50): $139.57 • MA(200): $139.35 • Price > both MAs → Bullish crossover confirmed. • This is a golden cross on the 1H chart = short-term bullish momentum.
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2. RSI (14): • Current RSI: 60.03 • This is neutral-bullish territory. • RSI has room to run up before becoming overbought (>70). • Suggests buyers still have momentum.
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3. Price Action: • Support levels: • $139.30 – $139.60: (Confluence of both MAs) • $136.60: Previous price support zone • Resistance levels: • $143.00: 24h high (immediate resistance) • $147.23: Local swing high • $148.11: Top of visible chart range • Trend: Clear short-term uptrend from $129.81 low. • Higher highs and higher lows forming. • Consolidating just below key resistance.
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4. Volume & Order Book: • Buyers: 52.06% vs Sellers: 47.94% • Buyer interest is slightly dominant but not overwhelming. • Momentum still slightly favors bulls.
Bearish Setup (if rejected): • Sell if it gets rejected at $143.00 and closes below $139.30 • Target: $136.60 → $134.00 • SL: Above $144.00
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Conclusion:
AAVE/USDT is in a short-term bullish trend on the 1H chart. RSI is healthy, price is above both MAs, and momentum is favoring a push toward $143+. A confirmed breakout above that level could trigger further upside toward $147.
Navigating the Crypto Market: Lessons from 4 Years of Experience
I entered the crypto space in 2021, and over the past four years, I have closely studied market movements, analyzing both technical and fundamental aspects. Throughout this journey, I have gained valuable insights into market cycles, structures, and, most importantly, how large players manipulate the market and influence trader sentiment.
One key lesson I’ve learned: The market is unpredictable and often moves against the majority’s expectations. There’s no absolute bullish or bearish stance—adaptability is crucial.
To help new traders navigate this complex space and avoid costly mistakes, I’ve decided to start sharing my experiences and insights. My goal is to bring awareness and provide valuable knowledge to those looking to make informed decisions. Follow along for market insights and strategies. Your support is greatly appreciated! 🚀